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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/23/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, and others!
Happy Tuesday, RotoBaller family! We have a full 15-game slate tonight, and there are so many great home run spots. That made this one of the hardest articles I’ve had to write all year, but it does mean we have a lot of fun spots to attack to grow our bankrolls.
Three of the four picks were no-brainers for me, but my fourth choice has so many options. Jackson Chourio and JJ Bleday, both of whom I wrote up last week, each missed the cut despite their great matchups. Pete Alonso and Matt Olson both just missed, but I’ll have bets on both tonight. Dominic Canzone would have been written up, but he’s banged up and may not play. If he’s in the lineup, he’s worth a small bet as well against a home run-prone Mitch Keller.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/23/2026)
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+190 Bet365)
I love to tell my fifth-grade students that success comes from struggle, but in sports betting, that’s not always the case, and it’s better to take the easy way out (I don’t tell them that part, just the part about struggle being good). Kyle Schwarber against Zack Littell is the easy way out when it comes to home run bets. Schwarber leads the majors with 29 home runs, and he’s been an absolute monster against right-handed pitching.
Although his .584 SLG is second on the team behind Bryce Harper (also a strong home run bet), his .353 ISO and 19 home runs against righties outpace all other Phillies batters. Schwarbs is crushing it at the moment, having hit six home runs with a .846 SLG and a .385 AVG over his past 10 games. He’s had limited exposure to Zach Littell in his career, but he does have one home run in three at-bats, and Littell has been one of the worst pitchers in the league this season.
How bad has Littell been? How about 20 home runs allowed, bad! His 2.54 HR/9 is bad, but he’s even worse at home, allowing a 2.61 HR/9. There may not be a worse pitcher in baseball when facing lefties this season, as Littell has allowed a .652 SLG with a 44.7 Hard%...and he’s facing Schwarber and Harper. I’m betting both for home runs, parlaying the two, and maybe adding a sprinkle on Brandon Marsh, who also hits righties really well.
Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 Bet365)
It’s Tuesday, so that must mean I’m recommending a Juan Soto home run. This isn’t something I aim to do, but the numbers are just always there for him. He has hammered right-handed pitching all season long, posting a team-leading .629 SLG and a .314 ISO. 76% of his 17 home runs this year have come against righties, and he’s white hot at the moment.
Over his past 10 games, he’s smacked four home runs with a .886 SLG. Soto has also shown more power at home this year, hitting a homer every 11.3 at-bats as opposed to one every 14.6 at-bats on the road.
Juan Soto is making a SERIOUS case for NL MVP 👀
Among qualified NL hitters:
🔹.582 SLG — 1st
🔹.980 OPS — 1st
🔹169 wRC+ — 1stDo YOU think Soto can take the NL MVP from Ohtani?#Mets #LGM #LFGM pic.twitter.com/Y3LbwpSXlY
— Fireside Mets (@firesidemets) June 19, 2026
Edward Cabrera has taken a decided downturn since late April. He has allowed all 14 of his season’s home runs in those nine games after not allowing a single one through his first five starts. He’s given up at least one home run in eight of those nine games and has surrendered more than one home run in 55% of those starts.
He’s been worse on the road with a 2.01 HR/9, and his Achilles heel is left-handed batters. The .461 SLG he’s allowed to lefties isn’t great, but the 44.5% Hard% tells the real story. The balls that left-handed bats hit aren’t weak shots; they are monsters.
Citi Field has been surprisingly hitter-friendly over the past three seasons, with a park factor for home runs that’s above league average. Combine that with Soto’s power and Cabrera’s struggles, and you have the recipe for success with a home run (or two) wager.
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