Matt Miller's 2026 U.S. Open Longshot Bets

June 17, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 U.S. Open sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 85-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Adam Scott (90-1 BetMGM)

Adam Scott is set to make his 100th consecutive major start this week at the 2026 U.S. Open. While the 45-year-old is certainly on the back end of his career, I believe Scott has another run at a major championship left in him.

Scott was a large disappointment at the PGA Championship last month; however, his main issue was the putting. Scott lost 2.17 strokes on average per round on the greens, his worst putting performance this season by a large margin.

26 years. 100 major starts.

Adam Scott joins an elite club this week @USOpenGolf. pic.twitter.com/lWA3MK19yS

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 16, 2026

From a ball striking perspective, Scott is having a great year in 2026. Since teeing it up at the Sony Open in January, the veteran has lost strokes on approach just one time in 12 starts. Additionally, he's lost strokes off the tee just twice this season. The around the green and putting play this week will ultimately decide Scott's fate this week.

We saw the Aussie contend at last year's U.S. Open at Oakmont, entering the final round just one shot behind the leader, before ultimately fizzling out on Sunday. While the course profile of Shinnecock is different than what we saw at Oakmont last year, the difficulty of the course is similar. I believe the winning score this week will be somewhere around even par, close to what we saw in JJ Spaun's 2025 U.S. Open victory at -1.

With wind set to be a major factor this week, Scott's experience and strength playing in the wind should help him a ton. While the profile isn't perfect, there is enough to like about Scott this week to warrant placing a bet at this number.

Cameron Smith (115-1 DraftKings)

It's been a long time since I've considered Cam Smith at any event, let alone a major championship. That said, the recent form has been quite encouraging.

💬 Cam Smith on the U.S. Open...

SMITH: "It's a U.S Open, it's going to be hard. You've got to hit it in the fairway, and you've got to give yourself opportunities to make birdies, and that is, you know, coming from the fairway.

You can't do it any other way. It's proven… pic.twitter.com/f6kTE8ztqC

— LIV Golf (@livgolf_league) June 16, 2026

Smith split with his long-time swing coach in May and the results have been noticeable. In his last four starts, Smith has gained strokes on approach three times. At the PGA Championship in May, Smith gained over six strokes on approach on the week.

Prior to teeing it up in Virginia in early May, the 32-year-old had lost strokes on approach in six of seven starts to begin his 2026 campaign.

Smith has always had a fantastic short game which should be extremely beneficial this week at Shinnecock. If he can continue with the strong iron play, he's one piece of the puzzle away from potentially being a factor this week.

The driver is the weak link for the Australian and there haven't exactly been encouraging signs as of late to suggest that has changed. The generous fairways this week at Shinnecock Hills should help in that department. Still, Smtih will need to improve his off the tee game this week if he wants a chance to contend.

Dustin Johnson (200-1 DraftKings)

I'll admit I have a soft spot for DJ and the thought of him contending this week feels like a big ask. The two-time major champion's statistical profile this year isn't what we've been accustomed to seeing from Johnson over the years.

The 41-year-old has relied heavily on the putter in 2026. Since teeing it up in LIV's first event of the season in Riyadh, Johnson has gained strokes putting in every start he's made this season. The rest of the game has been pedestrian, at best.

That said, there have been some encouraging signs over the past month from DJ. He has gained strokes on approach in two of his last three starts and enters this week coming off consecutive top five finishes at LIV Korea and LIV Andalucia.

The veteran finished third at Shinnecock at the 2018 U.S. Open. While he likely won't have many runs left at a major championship, can DJ contend once more?

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