First Base Fantasy Baseball Bust Candidates: Overvalued ADPs To Avoid?

March 21, 2026

Andy looks at potential first base (1B) fantasy baseball busts, avoids for 2026 drafts. He thinks you should avoid these overvalued 1B at their ADPs and pivot.

The first base position is often the deepest in fantasy. This season, there are two elite options going inside Round 2, while the majority of the position is being selected in Rounds 3 through 6.

However, given the vast number of top options, some are better value for their price than others. In this piece, I will spotlight several high-end first basemen (based on NFBC ADP since February 16) and explain why they could be overvalued in drafts.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 18

The current No. 1 first baseman in ADP is quite overvalued in relation to his previous production. While Guerrero carries one of the safest floors in fantasy, he has rarely been a top-15 player throughout his career.

Since his incredible 2021 campaign, when he posted a .311/.401/.601 line with 48 home runs, Guerrero has gone on to average a .288/.365/.484 line with 27.8 HRS, 90.5 runs, 94.5 RBI, and 5.3 stolen bases. While this does suggest his floor is incredibly safe, as he has played in 160 games per season, his ceiling is not as high as his ADP would suggest.

In 2025, Guerrero held a .292/.381/.467 line with 23 HRs (the lowest in this four-year stretch), with 96 runs and 84 RBI. According to FanGraphs Player Rater, Guerrero was the 33rd overall player last season, which is still quite impressive, but not worth a top-20 price tag. In 2024, he was slightly more productive, hitting 30 HRs with a .323 AVG, but in 2023, he looked like his 2025 self, hitting 26 HRs with a .264 AVG, suggesting 2024 was the outlier.

While his elite .384 xwOBA, .300 xBA, .506 xSLG, 50.7% hard-hit rate, and a 76.7 average mph bat speed, all of which were within the 90th percentile or higher, managers should not expect him to return to his 2024 or 2021 level of play, where he was a bona fide top-10 player.

Guerrero's power numbers have been trending downward due to his lower pull-AIR%. Despite how hard he hits the ball, Guerrero posted a below-average 14% Pull AIR% and a 33.7% LA Sweet-Spot%.

Even though he will produce a high-end batting average with 90 runs and 90 RBI, if his home run total remains under 30, he will not live up to this high draft cost. Instead, managers can select another first baseman, Nick Kurtz, who has 40-HR upside (albeit with a lower batting average), Kyle Schwarber, or Cal Raleigh, who possesses much higher upside than Guerrero does.

Managers should be shooting for upside in the opening rounds, not the "floor play."

Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 25

After two "down" seasons to his standards, Pete Alonso turned into a massive campaign in 2025, which earned him a massive five-year, $155 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles this winter. In 2025, Alonso posted a .272/.347/.524 slash line with 38 home runs, 126 RBI, and 87 runs. However, following a dominant campaign like this, his ADP is quite high, sitting just outside Round 2.

Is he worth a hefty price tag? History suggests the Polar Bear is one of the most overvalued players in the draft pool this season.

In 2024, Alonso was still a high-end power bat, hitting 26 home runs, but held a modest .240/.329/.459 line with 91 runs and 88 RBI. The year prior, Alonso was slightly more productive in terms of power, hitting 46 bombs, but held a much lower .217 AVG, which tanked his fantasy value that season.

Over these two seasons combined, Alonso carried a .229/.324/.480 with 40 HRs, 103 RBI, and 91.5 runs. While he is one of the best options for power, betting on another campaign at a near .270 AVG does not seem plausible.

While Alonso did generate an elite 18.9% barrel rate and a 54.4% hard-hit rate in 2025, his previous play over the past three seasons suggests this was more of an outlier than the 31-year-old taking another step forward in his seventh MLB season.

While he is joining a competing Orioles team, there is no guarantee his counting stats (especially RBI) will be as high as they were when he was batting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto last season, two of the game's top hitters in terms of on-base percentage (with Soto being elite).

ATC projects him to hit 36 HRs with a .252 AVG and 83 runs and 103 RBI. Wait a few rounds and take Matt Olson (ADP 46) or Bryce Harper (ADP 45), who have just as high a floor and nearly as much upside. Always avoid drafting players at their "peak" value. Alonso is a prime example of that.

#Orioles 1B Pete Alonso goes oppo and blasts his third home run of the spring over the right field fence.

Won’t count toward his stats since today’s an exhibition vs. Netherlands, but the Polar Bear effect is palpable just over 3 weeks from opening day: pic.twitter.com/elGsrDKeUG

— Josh Tolentino (@JCTSports) March 3, 2026

Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 55

Unlike the two names above, Devers is not completely avoided in drafts, but it significantly depends on team context.

Devers was involved in the major in-season trade (ahead of the trade deadline) that saw the Boston Red Sox franchise icon move to San Francisco. With the Red Sox (over 73 games), Devers looked like his former self, launching 15 home runs with a .272/.401/.504 line with an elite .905 OPS.

While his power numbers continued to climb in San Francisco, the rest of his profile took a hit, especially his batting average. With the Giants (90 games), Devers hit 20 home runs, which put him on pace for 36 long balls, the second-highest of his career in a single season. However, with the Giants, his batting average cratered, falling to .236 during this stint.

Additionally, he tallied just 52 runs and 51 RBI, which would have led to a 94-run, 92-RBI campaign over a full 162 slate.

Unlike Guerrero and Alonso, who need to have a big season to warrant that price tag, Devers is not a total "fade"; he is more dependent on the player you targeted in those first three to four rounds.

If you began your team with high-batting-average and speed options like Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll, or Trea Turner, adding a high-end power bat like Devers is a strong target. While his low sub-.240 AVG will hinder your team; pairing him with a player like Witt or Tuner helps to mitigate the damage.

However, managers who begin their drafts with volatile batting averages and assets like Raleigh, Schwarber, or Zach Neto should completely avoid Devers at cost and target Freddie Freeman or Josh Naylor a round later.

Both Freeman and Naylor have a far more well-rounded profile than Devers and can fit within most standard rotisserie team builds, while Devers takes a bit more strategic planning to boost your team. He is not a complete fade but will only be on my draft board on a "case-by-case" basis. Managers expecting him to return to his + .270 AVG will be disappointed at the cost.

Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 129

Round out this list will be a mid-round option that is significantly overvalued due ot his 2025 performance. Playing in the temporary home of George M. Steinbrenner Field, Diaz turned in a career-best in terms of power,  launching 25 long balls. This is only the second time in a single season he has surpassed the 20-HR mark, the other being the 22-HR season back in 2023.

Additionally, Diaz held a .300/.366/.482 line with 79 runs and a career-high 83 RBI.

While his elite batting average is his strongest skill, as evidenced by his 94th percentile .295 xBA, the other components of his profile are far less consistent heading into 2026.

The primary reason is that the Rays will be moving back to Tropicana Field, which is a far more favorable venue for pitchers than it is for hitters. While Diaz launched 22 home runs with a .330 AVG back in 2023 while playing at Tropicana Field, his 2024 stat line proves that more of a fluke.

In 2024, Diaz hit only 14 home runs with a solid .281 AVG with 55 runs and 65 RBI. When on the road in 2025, Diaz posted a .293/.353/.428 line with seven of his home runs. At his temporary home, Diaz hit 18 of his home runs while carrying an elite .307/.378/.533 lien with a .911 OPS.

Yandy Díaz goes deep again and extends @RaysBaseball's lead 💪 pic.twitter.com/qUo0aOGLv8

— MLB (@MLB) August 2, 2025

ATC projects Diaz to post a .287 AVG with 19 HRs and only 73 runs and 74 RBI, all of which are a decline in relation to his 2025 stat line. Instead, managers should see it as a few rounds and take Willson Contreras or Sal Stewart if needing a first baseman or corner infielder.

Sharing a similar ADP to Diaz at other positions, managers should target Kyle Stowers or Emmet Sheehan, both of whom have immense upside compared to Diaz.

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