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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/30/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Alec Burleson, Heliot Ramos, Max Kepler, and more!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I'm back again with another set of home run bets! We came up short yesterday, but oddly enough, all players mentioned yesterday at least got hits. We only have eight games today, and there's some sketchy weather, but I'll give you the best options that I can.
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, June 30, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/30/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, June 30:
- Alec Burleson - St. Louis Cardinals
- Heliot Ramos - San Francisco Giants
- Max Kepler - Philadelphia Phillies
- Vinnie Pasquantino - Kansas City Royals
- Yandy Diaz - Tampa Bay Rays
Alec Burleson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The weather is looking a little suspect in this one, but I can't overlook Andrew Heaney, who is a bit home-run-prone. He has an HR/9 of 1.46 overall, but that number jumps to 1.96 against LHH. He has a HardHit% of 43.2% this season with a Barrel% of 9%.
Alec Burleson has been on a heater this month, and although he hasn't been great against LHP, he has two home runs in the last two weeks against them. This month, he has seen his OPS jump to .923 and his SLG jump to .577. He has progressively been getting better against LHP and gets a great matchup against Heaney.
Plus, I love the value we get on him here at FanDuel; we are getting a strong hitter at +560 odds.
Alec Burleson 2025 OPS vs. LHP by month:
Mar/Apr: 0.125
May: 0.572
June: 1.276 🔥He's quickly erasing his platoon label pic.twitter.com/S6QAHjA0mP
— Adam Akbani (@AdamAkbani) June 21, 2025
Heliot Ramos OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)
It is blazing hot in Arizona today. Looking like it could be 110+ degrees in Phoenix, and the balls are going to be cutting through the air easily. Unfortunately, we don't get heavy home run pitchers, but Ryne Nelson has a 1.29 HR/9 against RHH this season. He is also holding a 9.4% barrel% and 40.6% HardHit%.
Heliot Ramos is in a good spot here as an RHH. He has a FlyBall% of 40% across the last 10 games as well as an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph. He has been hitting RHP well recently with seven hits, including a home run. I'm banking quite a bit on this hot weather sending those balls into the stands.
Ramos has hit 10 of his 13 home runs against RHP, where he posts a .457 SLG as well as an OPS of .819. He has cooled down a bit, coming down from a scorching hot month of May, but I have a feeling the weather is going to be in his favor quite a bit here.
Max Kepler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I think the obvious pick is to go with Kyle Schwarber here, who continues to mash the ball, but I'm gonna take a shot on Max Kepler here in the same spot. Kepler has been crushing the ball lately. Over the last 12 games, he has hit the ball very hard, including several hits with an ExVelo of 100 mph or higher, two of which resulted in home runs.
His FlyBall% is up to 44%, which means he is getting under the ball nicely.
He is going up against a knuckleballer in Matt Waldron, who is making his season debut. Waldron last season had a 1.34 HR/9 against LHH and an overall HardHit% of 34.7%. Which is not very high, but with how hard these lefties are hitting the ball recently, all it takes is one misplaced knuckleball to send it flying into the stands.
The weather is looking a bit rough, but it should still be in the 80s. If we avoid the rain here, then we should get a few home runs, especially from the lefty side of the plate that favors hitters a bit more than righties.
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Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+630 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I hate going against my boy George Kirby, and I don't love picking home runs in the least favorable home run park in the league. But Kirby has been rough this year in the home run department, especially against LHH. Left-handed bats have a 2.84 HR/9 against him to go along with a 42.1% HardHit% and 9.3% Barrel%, which are both the worst of his career.
I think we are getting incredible odds here on Vinnie Pasquantino. He has two home runs in the last nine games, both off RHP. Pasquantino has a 43.7% HardHit% and an 8% Barrel%. He has specifically hit right-handers extremely well this season, with 11 of his 12 home runs coming against them and an encouraging .473 SLG.
Pasquantino makes for a solid play here at his price, and if he can get the ball past the marine layer, he should be sitting nicely in this one.
Vinnie Pasquantino doubles the Royals lead with a 430-foot home run 💥 pic.twitter.com/Pgtc3LuFuc
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2025
Luis Garcia Jr., James Wood, and Josh Bell all hit homers off Kirby in Seattle. Left-handed hitters are the way to go here against Kirby until he figures his stuff out again.
Yandy Diaz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yandy Diaz is a very well-rounded hitter. He hits both sides of the mound very well with an SLG of .439 or higher against RHP and LHP. He has three homers in his last nine games and benefits from the Triple-A park. Diaz possesses incredible power, with a HardHit% of 55% and a Barrel% of 10.4%. Both of which have increased significantly compared to last season.
He is going up against LHP Jacob Lopez, who has had some solid starts limiting home runs this season. Four of his five home runs given up this season have been against RHH. Righties are hitting him for a strong .412 SLG and a .335 wOBA.
Yandy Díaz last 18 games:
.446 BA
5 HR
13 RBI
14 Runspic.twitter.com/GiXiNtaA7m— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) June 28, 2025
It should be in the 80s in Tampa, and there is a slight wind out toward center field, but I don't think it will have that much of an effect. However, it should be good weather for smashing some baseballs out of the park!
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