The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 20

August 4, 2024

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued, and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 20 of the 2024 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 20 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- August 5 through August 11. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As we enter the penultimate month of the regular season, tougher decisions must be made. Although that doesn't necessarily mean dropping a star after a bad week, holding someone for too long at this stage could be disastrous.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Evan Phillips - RP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 82% rostered

Phillips was one of my favorite closers coming into the season. Things looked good after an excellent start to the year. It's gone downhill in recent weeks. His struggles in July have seen Phillips lose the closer role as the Dodgers look to use a committee to finish games. An 11.74 ERA in a month will do that. Against the Giants in Week 18, Phillips picked up a save and a hold. Any optimism of a return to form was short-lived.

Last Saturday, Phillips faced four batters. All four got a hit, and Phillips left without recording an out. He did bounce back with a scoreless inning on Friday (striking out three). But that was the sixth inning while down by four runs. In 33.1 IP, Phillips has a 2-0 W-L record, 4.05 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 38 Ks and 15 saves. Phillips wasn't exclusively used in the ninth inning before his struggles. But two weeks ago, Dave Roberts all but confirmed his role would be fluid moving forward.

#Dodgers MGR Dave Roberts stopped short of saying struggling RHP Evan Phillips was no longer closer but said he will look for spots in “leverage” from seventh-inning on for him.

— Mike DiGiovanna (@MikeDiGiovanna) July 22, 2024

The only reason why Phillips isn't a clear and obvious cut is due to the fact no one else in the Dodgers bullpen seems to want the closer job. Since Phillips last got a save on August 23, only Brent Honeywell has picked up a save. Blake Treinen has a 7.36 ERA and two blown saves since then. While Daniel Hudson has a 16.75 ERA and one blown save. Small sample for sure, but Phillips may still get a chance to work his way back into the closer role.

Verdict: A reliever in a closer committee on a good team still has value. However, given his recent performances, it's difficult to see how Phillips will get back into regular ninth-inning work. If anything, it will be down to other relievers having similar struggles. In deeper leagues or where you need saves, I can understand holding onto Phillips. Otherwise, he's droppable.

Josh Lowe - OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 52% rostered

After his breakout season last year, fantasy managers had high hopes for Lowe in 2024. Two stints on the IL due to oblique injuries haven't helped him this year and may go some way to explaining his numbers. After 55 games, Lowe has seven homers, 22 RBI, 20 runs, and 10 steals with a .239/.299/.418 slash line. He had a huge game last night, going 4-for-5 with two homers.

Frustratingly, last night's fifth-inning home run was Lowe's first since June 21, when he went deep twice against the Pirates. The fact it's taken him 28 games to go deep again makes it hard to trust that yesterday will be a turning point. Lowe may have turned the corner as he's now gone 8-for-14 over his last four games. It's still too early to completely trust this as being a resurgence. Even during his struggles, Lowe was at least able to tally some steals.

He stole nine bases during his homerless streak, so he was staying relevant. Despite the glut of stolen bases and last night's big game, Lowe still only ranks 72nd among outfielders over the last 30 days (according to Yahoo!). Lowe's fantasy value will always be capped as he seldom faces left-handed pitching (LHP). Only 22 of his 201 plate appearances this year have come against lefties.

It was a similar story last year, with only 67 of his 501 plate appearances being against LHP. Lowe is a platoon bat on a team that values matchups more than any other. And he's had limited offensive production despite being on the strong side of a platoon. This week, Lowe has flashed us a reminder of his talents. It just remains to be seen if he can continue the momentum.

Verdict: In any shallow league, I'd be fine moving on from Lowe. If you have daily lineups, Lowe does provide more value as long as you have a suitable replacement to start when the Rays face a leftie starter. The Rays are set to face at least five RHP next week, so Lowe is worth hanging onto for another week in deeper leagues. In weekly lineup or shallow leagues, I'd still be looking for a suitable replacement over the coming days.

Hold For Now

Nestor Cortes - SP, New York Yankees - 71% rostered

I will preface this by saying that if you have dropped Cortes in shallower leagues, I don't blame you. However, I do think it's worth considering picking him up again. And certainly still holding if you've kept him after the recent rough stretch. On the year, Cortes has a 5-9 W-L record, 4.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 122 Ks (129.2 IP). The numbers are nothing to get excited about but his upcoming schedule is.

As things currently stand, Cortes's next four outings will be against the Angels (home), White Sox (away), Tigers (away), and Rockies (home). Just in terms of runs scored, that quartet ranks 16th or worse. The Rockies are the highest ranked at 16th. But they rank 27th in runs scored on the road. If we break it down to look at where the four teams rank against LHP, it shouldn't deter you from starting Cortes against any of them.

We can't look too far ahead, but Cortes could end up facing the Cardinals after this schedule. Things do get tougher after that, but for the next three weeks, Cortes could hardly have hand-picked a better schedule. I'd understand benching him against the Angels if you are a bit concerned about his recent struggles. But if you've held on to Cortes during the rough stretch, things could get a whole lot better for you.

Yusei Kikuchi - SP. Houston Astros - 44% rostered

Even before being traded to the Astros, I was on board with holding Kikuchi. His numbers didn't impress, but there were enough positive signs if you looked beneath the surface. Following his Astros debut on Friday, it's fair to say Kikuchi's fantasy managers will be optimistic for the remainder of the season. Kikuchi gave up a double, followed by a home run to start the game. He then allowed one hit while walking three batters and striking out 11 (5.2 IP).

Yusei Kikuchi struck out 8 straight batters on his way to his second double-digit K start of the year. pic.twitter.com/ROMjK3tAOu

— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2024

Before Friday, Kikuchi had a 4.75 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, and 3.49 SIERA. He also ranked tied-19th in total strikeouts (130), so has been a good source of Ks. They were the reasons I believed Kikuchi would have a strong end to the season. Friday's start reinforced that position. His success was largely down to his pitch usage. Dylan Carlson's home run was off Kikuchi's sixth straight fastball to start the game. He then mixed things up.

Kikuchi ended up throwing a season-high 25 changeups. He got 11 whiffs on that pitch alone. This year, Kikuchi's changeup has a .180 batting average and .193 wOBA against it. It's been, by far, his best pitch. Assuming we see this trend continuing from Kikuchi while he's in Houston, he could have a very productive couple of months. Even without that change in approach, Kikuchi was someone I'd be holding onto and adding where I could.

On the Hot Seat

Andres Gimenez - 2B, Cleveland Guardians - 77% rostered

In June, I'd resisted including Giménez on The Cut List. That was down to his numbers being on pace to almost match last year. A prolonged slump has seen Giménez fall well behind matching last year's numbers. On the season, Giménez has five homers, 45 RBI, 45 runs, and 16 steals with a .249/.297/.331 slash line (102 games). A look at his monthly numbers shows us how much Giménez has struggled in recent weeks.

Giménez hasn't been helped by a struggling Guardians offense. They rank 26th in runs scored since June 1 (220). That's a big drop from the first two months of the season when the Guardians ranked third in runs scored (293). Giménez has to shoulder some of the responsibility for that. His struggles also saw him move down the order, as he's batted sixth or seventh in every game since June 27.

There's no questioning Giménez's playing time. He ranks in the 98th percentile for Outs Above Average (OAA) with 11. And he's in the 90th percentile for sprint speed (28.9 ft/sec) so will still tally stolen bases. Without his bat heating up, Giménez won't be able to provide much fantasy value. There are some reasons to hold on to Giménez which is why he's on the Hot Seat and worth holding for a bit longer.

Giménez is riding an eight-game hitting streak, going 9-for-30. He's only tallied two runs and one stolen base to show for it, though. Giménez has a 38.5% HardHit% in that span, up from his season mark of 28.6%. He's also got a .270 xBA (expected batting average) this year. The addition of Lane Thomas at the trade deadline should help the Guardians' offense, and it certainly needs a boost.

If the Guardians continue to slump collectively, it's going to be tough for Giménez to be a productive fantasy option. Even if he does manage to continue improving his batting average gradually, Giménez's value is based on getting hits, stealing bases, and scoring runs. The Second base position doesn't have much in the way of alternatives, so that will give Giménez a slightly longer leash. But time is ticking, and another rough fortnight will likely mean it's time to move on.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Austin Riley - 3B, Atlanta Braves - 98% rostered

Riley was included back in the Week 12 edition of The Cut List. He wasn't someone I was considering cutting then despite his struggles. So this request was more of a follow-up. And if anything, Riley has cemented his role as a must-hold player. The below table looks at Riley's numbers before and after his inclusion on The Cut List eight weeks ago.

The injuries the Braves have experienced will obviously be detrimental to Riley's RBI and run totals. But he's been doing everything else we expected at the start of this season. In fact, his 162-game pace since Week 12 is 41 home runs, 93 RBI, 90 runs, and no stolen bases. Last year, Riley had 37 homers, 97 RBI, 117 runs, and three steals with a .281/.345/.516 slash line.

It took a while to get going, but we can now just write off Riley's April and May as a bad start. The addition of Jorge Soler to the lineup should help, and the Braves have been better offensively in recent weeks. Riley is set to be one of the best power sources over the remainder of the season and isn't someone to consider dropping.

Jose Caballero - SS, Tampa Bay Rays - 33% rostered

It's unusual for a player rostered as low as Caballero to be included in The Cut List. Earlier in the season, he wouldn't have been. But, we're at a point of the year whereby Caballero's inclusion is more about a wider picture than just the individual. First, we'll look at Caballero's numbers. After 91 games, he has seven home runs, 28 RBI, 42 runs, and 28 stolen bases with a .234/.297/.361 slash line.

The numbers shouldn't come as a surprise, given they're not too dissimilar to last year. Caballero hit .221/.343/.320 with four homers, 26 RBI, 37 runs, and 26 steals in 104 games with the Mariners. The reality is that Caballero is a below-average hitter. As we can see from his Statcast Profile, a very below-average hitter. The things that Caballero has going for him are speed (79th percentile) and defense (93rd percentile for Outs Above Average).

Isaac Paredes being traded has left an everyday infield position open for Caballero. The reason I mention Caballero's situation as something more widely applicable is that he's only offering help in one category. But at this stage of the season, you should be focusing more intently on specific categories. Ones where you're vulnerable to sliding down the overall rankings. Or ones whereby you can make up more ground.

If speed is something you need, then Caballero has value. Just know that he will offer little else and may even harm you in batting average and the other counting stats. It is also worth noting that 20 of his 28 stolen bases came by the end of May. He tallied four steals in June and four in July. Unless you do need steals in roto leagues, Caballero is an easy option to drop.

Brandon Marsh - OF, Philadelphia Phillies - 20% rostered

Marsh being even lower rostered than Caballero will certainly raise an eyebrow or two having been included this week. I was surprised at how few rosters Marsh was on. Especially given how similar he is to the earlier featured Josh Lowe. A hamstring injury saw Marsh miss a couple of weeks in early June. But he's been healthy otherwise and has now played 87 games.

In those 87 games, Marsh has 11 homers, 41 RBI, 36 runs, and 12 steals with a .248/.323/.427 slash line. Nothing that stands out, but Marsh is also someone who doesn't hurt you in any category. In shallower leagues, we're looking at more than just players who don't hurt you. But in deeper leagues, having someone you can insert in the lineup and forget about does have value.

People will look at Marsh's July and question how hitting .182/.236/.409 wouldn't have hurt teams. Well, Marsh also had four home runs, nine RBI, nine runs, and three stolen bases last month. Only 22 hitters managed those counting stats in July, and only 12 of them were outfielders. Like Lowe, Marsh is in a platoon. However, it's not quite as straightforward or as strict.

Austin Hays will play every day for the Phillies, Rob Thomson said. Brandon Marsh will start in CF vs. righties, Johan Rojas in CF vs. lefties, but Phillies not calling it a straight platoon. Want to get Rojas enough ABs as well.

— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) July 27, 2024

Last Sunday, Marsh started against a LHP. And even when Johan Rojas got the start against a leftie on Wednesday, Marsh came in to pinch hit and got two plate appearances. Marsh ranks as the 53rd outfielder on Yahoo! this season. While I don't envisage him finishing the season much higher, he still has value in deeper leagues. Certainly in daily lineup leagues, I'd look to hold on to Marsh.

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