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A Team Penske Ford went to victory lane at Gateway, but it could actually hurt the organization's chances of winning another Cup Series Championship in 2024.
The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season has certainly had plenty of dramatic finishes to races, and this past weekend's Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway (Gateway) was no exception. While coming to take the white flag as the leader on Sunday, the defending Cup Series Champion and Team Penske driver, Ryan Blaney, looked to be cruising to victory. Until he came over the radio, yelling that he was out of fuel.
Luckily for Team Penske, another one of their drivers was in the cat bird's seat, as Austin Cindric was running a close second behind Blaney when the No. 12 Ford ran out of fuel. Cindric was able to capitalize and grab his second-ever Cup Series win, locking himself into this year's Playoffs.
And while it was a good thing for Team Penske that one of their drivers ended up in victory lane at Gateway on Sunday, it actually may end up being a bad thing for the organization in the overall scheme of things.
The 2024 Playoff Picture After Gateway
Austin Cindric's win at Gateway locks him into the Playoffs for 2024, which is a great boost for that No. 2 team. But this surprise victory also has a major effect on the Playoff picture, as it moves the points cutoff line up a spot (as Cindric is currently 18th in points).
Through the first 15 races of this season, we have seen nine different winners, which are all now locked into the Playoffs. Those drivers are Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson (assuming he gets a waiver), Chase Elliott, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Daniel Suarez, and now Austin Cindric.
We can safely assume that barring a catastrophic collapse, the following drivers are going to make it in the Playoffs as well, either on points or via a win. Those drivers are Martin Truex Jr, Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, and Ryan Blaney.
That's 14 drivers either already locked in or extremely likely to make it. That leaves two spots available in the 16-driver Playoff field.
Who Gets The Final Two Spots?
After Ryan Blaney in the points standings, there is a big gap back to Bubba Wallace. And that's where things get interesting.
Wallace, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch are now all effectively fighting for the final two spots--and that's assuming we don't get another surprise winner currently further down in the points standings, which would make things even crazier.
Bubba currently has a three-point cushion over Buescher, who currently serves as the cut line for the Playoffs. Buescher is 10 points ahead of Briscoe, 14 points ahead of Logano, and 20 points ahead of Busch. After Busch, the next driver in points that isn't locked into the Playoffs is Josh Berry, who is 104 points behind the cut line.
Cindric's Win Actually Hurts His Teammate
While it was a great win for Austin Cindric at Gateway, Roger Penske had to be feeling a little frustrated with how that all went down. By Cindric locking himself into the Playoffs, it now puts Joey Logano in an even more difficult spot to make the Playoffs this year.
As we went over before, Logano is in the thick of the points standings when it comes to making the postseason on points, but his 2024 season thus far hasn't been strong. Through 15 races this year, the two-time Cup Series Champion has notched just four top-10 results and has an average finish of 17.6--his worst since joining the series full-time way back in 2009.
The drivers that Logano is battling against in the points are all performing better than Joey right now, and heading into Gateway; the Team Penske driver stated, "We don't have any mulligans left at this point," when asked about making it into the Playoffs. Cindric's win just made it that much more difficult.
Team Penske's Championship Chances Just Took a Hit, Too
Furthermore, Austin Cindric's win at Gateway actually hurts Team Penske's chances of winning another Cup Series Championship this season. While it does guarantee the organization two spots in the 16-driver field, Austin Cindric is not a legitimate Championship contender. He has two wins in 94 career Cup Series starts and a career average finish of 19.7. He's not winning the title.
On the other hand, we know that Joey Logano is capable of winning a Championship. He's done it twice (in 2018 and 2022), and he has the driving talent to go on a hot streak and advance through the Playoffs. And if he's able to make it to the Championship race at Phoenix, it's certainly possible the No. 22 Ford could contend, as short, flat tracks are Team Penske's strength--as we just saw at Gateway last weekend.
Joey Logano can definitely still make the Playoffs this year and contend for a Championship, but (ironically) his teammate's win at Gateway just made it that much more difficult for the Team Penske driver to do so.
