June 8, 2024

RotoBrady provides his picks and analysis for betting on the 2024 XFL and USFL Conference Championship games.

The 2024 UFL Conference Championships are upon us, and we have had a lot of time to consider these matchups. I mean, they've practically been set for a month. Last week was a really hard one to call, but I still ended up going 6-5-1 including some plus-money wins, so it actually went far better than I thought it would after some early, ugly losses. This week, there won't be as many guesses that need to be made--the home teams are going to have a HUGE advantage, and the team that really wants it more and is playing the best (with a little help from these wacky rules) will end up in the UFL Championship. To end up in the postseason for the inaugural UFL campaign is already a big deal, and it sets these franchises up nicely for (hopefully) years to come, and short of the incredibly unlucky season by the Arlington Renegades, I very much think that the four best teams ended up in the playoffs.

We only have two weeks left of UFL action, and it always bums me out when you realize how quickly the season flew by, and how we will all be eagerly waiting for the better part of a year until it's time for the 2025 UFL campaign. At least the flow of UFL players getting workouts and invites from NFL teams has already started, and the UFL Draft and free agency should be a blast. But the next two weeks are about determining the best team in the league. The Stallions are focused on defending their title, the Panthers have a mountain to climb, and both XFL teams are hungry to prove themselves on behalf of the XFL conference. With that, let's dive in and make picks for these games.

RotoBrady's Real 2024 UFL Postseason Awards

MVP: Adrian Martinez (easy)

Offensive POY: Tie between Jacob Saylors/Hakeem Butler/Jontre Kirklin/Sal Cannella

Defensive POY: Tie between Breeland Speaks & Tavante Beckett/the San Antonio Jordans

Coach of the Year: Tie between Will Reed (SA DC) & Bruce Gradkowski (STL OC)

Special Teams POY: Tie Between Chris Rowland/Jake Bates/Amari Rodgers/Marquette King

Conference Championship Picks

Michigan Panthers at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, June 8th, at 3PM ET)

Birmingham (-5), O/U 43

Michigan ended up covering the eight points in this same matchup last week that ended 20-19 in Birmingham, and the high-stakes of this game paired with last week's result have brought this line down to -5. Bryce Perkins is on the IR now, and so Danny Etling will be starting over E.J. Perry and Brian Lewerke. Etling was able to do some damage last week with 195 yards and a touchdown with four runs for 36 yards and a score, but the 16-31 passing is not going to fly in the USFL Championship. Thankfully, it appears that Michigan will have Matthew Colburn II back in the fold, which is essential considering the loss of Perkins and the otherwise mediocre performance of the backfield in Week 10. Both defenses played well, both quarterbacks struggled in their efficiency (though it was more uncharacteristic for one of them), but the Birmingham backfield made a huge difference in their effectiveness with each attempt, as Adrian Martinez and C.J. Marable combined for 97 yards on 15 rushes with two touchdowns.

Outside of the injuries we have already discussed, the main inactive players are CB Mark Gilbert and RB Larry Rountree III. This game is taking place in front of the Birmingham Stallions' faithful, and as opposed to last week, I think this home turf is going to be protected to maximum capacity to ensure that they make it to St. Louis. I think that this line has adjusted properly, and as good as Michigan has been in route to Mike Nolan being named UFL Coach of the Year, I just can't name a department of the game where I think the Panthers have a real advantage--at least not enough of one to make up for their greater deficiencies. As beatable as Birmingham has started to look, I think they are ready to turn the jets back on, and I think that this over hits with both teams having something to play for. Give me a final score of 24-19 to 27-21, Stallions.

Player Prop of the Game: Jace Sternberger over 51.5 yards

San Antonio Brahmas at St. Louis Battlehawks (Sunday, June 9th, at 7PM ET)

St. Louis (-3), O/U 44, ML (-166)

Now, this game is going down on Sunday, and so keep an eye out for the injury statuses on both sides, but this is a game that could end up being impacted by the injury report--at least for San Antonio, RB John Lovett is probable, but RB Anthony McFarland and QB Chase Garbers are both questionable to play, meaning that some of the responsibility could also fall to the likes of Morgan Ellison and Quinten Dormady in the XFL Championship. Both of these teams played up to par on defense last week in a 13-12 win for St. Louis to secure homefield advantage this weekend. I don't know what is more impressive: San Antonio's defense limiting the Battlehawks offense to the extent that they did, or the Battlehawks defense stepping up to hold the Brahmas to 12. Looking back, the Brahmas have ended up a lot like the Seattle Sea Dragons--you are fooled into thinking that their offense is the top advantage all season, until you realize that it wasn't ever that good, while their defense carries them to the playoffs.

Dormady actually played way better than Garbers last week, and the connection with Jontre Kirklin was there all day, but the presence of Ellison alone in the backfield just isn't close to enough, as he rushed for a decent 43 yards and one TD on 11 carries, while the rest of the Brahmas managed only 13 yards on six carries. They will need John Lovett to pick up where he left off, and having McFarland back in the lineup would be massive. The Battlehawks this season were kind of what we were hoping the Sea Dragons could have been in 2023--because this offense has clicked all year, but Week 10 was extremely out of the ordinary. A.J. McCarron had a horrible day as his best receivers (Butler and Jahcour Pearson) did their jobs, but 10 of 24 passing with 115 yards, a TD, and an INT is going to be problematic in any game. Luckily, St. Louis was bailed out by their backfield duo of Jacob Saylors and Wayne Gallman II, who carried 18 times for 91 combined yards. This crowd was motivated last week, and they are going to be even more motivated this week, so that they can be most motivated next week. Having their backfield healthy would be key, but I think this Brahmas squad threw their best shot at St. Louis next week, and it just wasn't enough, even with a terrible game by A.J. McCarron in his return to action. I think A.J. will be back on track this week, and in a better performance by both offenses, I still think we are looking at a win for the Battlehawks in the range of 21-17 to 28-24. I would lay the points, and I guess I would slightly lean over, but I don't love that. A Battlehawks ML play is very reasonable for the price too.

Player Prop of the Game: John Lovett over rushing 45.5 yards 

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