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"Thunder" Dan Palyo breaks down the first round of the NBA playoffs with his sports betting picks and advice for the Western Conference NBA postseason.
Now that the play-in games are over, it's time for the first-round series to begin! Each of these four series will be best-of-seven games with the winners advancing to the conference semifinals.
The upstart OKC Thunder are the top seed in the West this season, with the defending champion Nuggets being bumped down to the #2 seed. Can we count on any upsets or will the bracket play out with the top two seeds meeting each other in the Western Conference Finals?
Here’s my prediction for who will win each of the four series. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the Eastern Conference playoff preview by Mike Barner, too!
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#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans
Season Series: Thunder lead 2-1
Series Odds: Thunder (-700), Pelicans (+450)
I did not think we'd see the Pelicans here after they lost Zion Williamson to injury in the game against the Lakers earlier this week. But New Orleans rallied around Brandon Ingram last night to beat the Kings and advance into the tournament as Sacramento apparently used up their best game against the Warriors in the 9 vs. 10 game.
If the Pelicans were going to have Williamson for this series, then I would like their chances of pulling off an upset more. But OKC is simply too talented and New Orleans isn't going to be able to hang with them for a full series.
We have heard a lot about the youth and inexperience of the Thunder this season, but I don't think it's an issue in the opening round. Without Zion, the Pelicans are overmatched and they're going to struggle to score enough points to keep up with the high-octane offense of OKC.
I think New Orleans takes one game at home, but that we ultimately see this series end after five games.
Betting Pick(s): Series Exact Games - 5 (+200)
Series Prediction: OKC wins 4-1
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers
Season Series: Nuggets lead 3-0
Series Odds: Lakers (+250), Nuggets (-310)
The Nuggets have dominated the Lakers this year and last season when they swept LA in the playoffs. What's different about this year's teams? Well, the Lakers are a little less dependent on LeBron taking over than they were last season as Anthony Davis had a huge year and both Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell had big seasons. LA almost blew a huge lead in the 7 vs. 8 play-in game on Tuesday and hung on late, as they allowed a sub-par offensive team in New Orleans to come back from double-digits.
The Lakers have some major deficiencies on defense and the Nuggets are one of the worst possible matchups for them as they run one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Jokic is a cheat code with his ability to initiate offense from anywhere in the half-court and Denver gives new meaning to "the sum is greater than the parts" as their core of Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope play so well off each other and all know their roles.
I think Denver will make quick of the Lakers here. My bet reflects that as I have them -2.5 games, which means we cash it if they sweep or win in five games.
A new season starts tomorrow. #MileHighPlayoffs | #Road2Gold pic.twitter.com/eNgnvBYBIB
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) April 20, 2024
I also like Denver to get back to finals this year. I think they are the most well-rounded team in the league and have the playoff experience that OKC lacks and the experience playing together that Phoenix lacks.
Betting Pick(s): Series Spread, Denver -2.5 games (+145), To Win Western Conference (+135)
Series Prediction: Nuggets win 4-1
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. #6 Phoenix Suns
Season Series: Suns lead 3-0
Series Odds: T-Wolves (+130), Suns (-155)
This is the one series that I may go against the public. The general perception is that Phoenix is a bad matchup for Minnesota based on their 3-0 H2H record this season and that the big three of the Suns (Durant-Booker-Beal) are going to be too much for the T-Wolves to handle.
But this Minnesota team shouldn't be discounted. They finished the season with the third-best net rating of +6.3 (better than Denver) and the best defensive rating (108.4) in the league.
With KAT back just in time for the playoffs, this T-Wolves team has the size to match up with Nurkic and KD and a true wild card in their young phenom guard Anthony Edwards.
In the playoffs, I like siding with defense over offense and with Minnesota always owning homecourt advantage, I think they can pull this thing out in seven games. I'm backing the underdogs here to win the series!
Betting Picks: T-Wolves to win series (+130)
Series Prediction: T-Wolves win 4-3
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Dallas Mavericks
Season Series: Clippers Lead 2-1
Series Odds: Clippers (+110), Mavs (-130)
It sounds like Kawhi Leonard is going to give it a go in game one after getting an injection to treat his ailing knee. But the odds in this series shifted fast after Dallas opened up as a slight underdog. Bettors are favoring the Mavericks, who come into the playoffs in great form as they had won five in a row before resting their regular players in the final two games of the season once their seeding was locked in.
The Clippers limped across the finish line to an extent, dropping their three final games. Their core of James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard has plenty of playoff experience, but it's really about Leonard and his health for me as he's the guy who really makes this team go. I doubt he's going to be anywhere close to 100% and the reputations of George and Harden in the playoffs are...well, we know.
Dallas Mavericks hype video posted by Luka Doncic.
“Playoff time” 🔥🔥
— Noah Weber (@noahweber00) April 16, 2024
I'll side with the favorites here as I think Luka Doncic is the best player in the series and we can't discount how well Kyrie Irving has played this year either. The two of them can both take over the ballgame at any point. And Dallas made some nice upgrades to their rotation this year, especially when they added big man Daniel Gafford through a trade midseason. This should be a competitive series, so I am going to keep my bet very generic since we are still getting some decent odds on the Mavericks straight up.
Betting Pick(s): Dallas to win series (-130)
Series Prediction: Dallas wins 4-2
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