March 30, 2024

RotoBrady takes a look at the boldest season-long bets for the 2024 UFL season and puts together his favorite picks for Week 1 of the UFL season.

The USFL and XFL, after all of the swirling rumors and back-and-forth debate, have merged to become the UFL. Last year, I wrote every single week about all 16 teams across both leagues, and it was a blast. Now, we are just getting less, and a lot of talented individuals lost their jobs. There will be more Arena Football across the U.S. this year (check out the IFL & AFL for very unique flavors of football) as the sport keeps growing worldwide (i.e. European League of Football & Japan's X-League are great), but I want as much as we can possibly get, not less. Still, I am thrilled that there will still be Spring Football in 2024.

The teams that made the merger and are occupying the XFL Conference are: the San Antonio Brahmas, St. Louis Battlehawks, D.C. Defenders, and 2023 Champion Arlington Renegades. The teams making their way from the 1980s--through Canton and Birmingham--and now on to fill the USFL Conference are: the Birmingham Stallions, Memphis Showboats, Michigan Panthers, and Houston Roughnecks (who are essentially, 100% the Houston Gamblers, but inexplicably rebranded as the XFL Roughnecks). After free agency transactions, a slew of Dispersal Drafts, and a frenetic coaching carousel, these teams have mostly managed to retain their core identities while taking on a whole new look and feel with some of the best players that both leagues had to offer who found themselves without a team to play for after the merger was announced.

We'll get to see coaches thrive by NOT just copying what the others are doing after getting fired from their last FBS job for netting a 7-5 season but with an offense not pretty enough to keep up with the Jones's. We'll get very recent college players that we loved watching from Community College/JUCO, DII/DIII, HBCU/FCS, and unsung personnel from major programs making statements with the sheer quality of their play regardless of what any dismissive scouts didn't see in them--a sentiment that follows some of those players from their high school days of 0-2 star status.

Some of those guys will play really well--so well that they end up making NFL Pro Bowls like KaVontae Turpin & Brandon Aubrey--and countless others sign on to Practice Squads and so forth while half of the 3-6th-round NFL Draft picks from the last few seasons fizzle out. This really highlights how much of the scouting world succumbs to playing it safe and following the status quo--you really can't judge a player until you see him on the field.

Now--that being said, let's dive into the best Preseason Futures for the Conference/League Championships and individual player awards, plus every spread, O/U, and ML for Week 1 of the 2024 UFL campaign.

Preseason Futures

UFL Championship

(All Odds Per DraftKings Sportsbook)

Birmingham Stallions (+300)

St. Louis Battlehawks (+300)

D.C. Defenders (+380)

Arlington Renegades (+550)

Houston Roughnecks (+650)

Memphis Showboats (+800)

Michigan Panthers (+1300)

San Antonio Brahmas (+1400)

Right from the beginning, I already knew how little I liked these numbers for the Roughnecks and Panthers. The loss of Mark Thompson is catastrophic for Houston, and Jarrett Guarantano at QB offsets much of the potential upside of offensive playmakers Justin Hall, T.J. Pledger, and Isiah Hennie. The defense had Maulers defensive stalwarts Olive Sagapolu and Reuben Foster, and so the defense should be decently formidable, but this team took too many hits to garner any confidence as a potential league champion. As for Michigan, retaining LB Frank Ginda was a big deal, and the backfield 1-2 punch of former NOLA Breaker Wes Hills and Philly Star Matthew Colburn II should be a legitimate force to be reckoned with, but the rest of the offensive and defensive firepower leaves plenty to be desired, and it is very hard to see E.J. Perry being enough at QB to overcome the rest of the USFL conference over the course of a full season.

The Battlehawks, Defenders, and Renegades all have close balances of pros and cons. In St. Louis, it is hard to argue against the power of their home environment, and with A.J. McCarron returning to receiving options Hakeem Butler, Darrius Shepherd, and Blake Jackson, this is a team that will put points on the board. Their running game for the moment appears to lie solely with Wayne Gallman, and that is uninspiring, and the defense doesn't boast the star power of the rest of their top-tier competition.

The Defenders went all the way to the XFL Championship in 2023, and with a quarterback room of Jordan Ta'amu, Jalan McClendon, and Deondre Francois, it appears that they are continuing with their offensive scheme from last season in utilizing specialty players. However, this is a team that is now devoid of reliable pass-catchers even with the addition of Keke Coutee, and the devastating loss of Abram Smith leaves them with the ground options of Cam'Ron Harris and Pooka Williams. I believe the defense will be solid once more, but this offense has a handful of things to figure out, but the main reasons why they remain a team to watch are in the astute head coaching of Reggie Barlow and the rowdy home field advantage.

Arlington rode the suspiciously-timed acquisition of Spring Football legend Luis Perez to an XFL title in 2023, with a Bob Stoops-level defense and reliable play by RB De'Veon Smith and TE Sal Cannella. I am a fan of this backfield of Smith and Leddie Brown, and the WR to watch is probably Tyler Vaughns, though that doesn't exactly jump off of the page in the compacted, super-stacked UFL field. Defensive catalysts Vic Beasley and Donald Payne are of strong interest, but it's that Perez magic and the continuity in skill positions that make Arlington not a bad value at +550. As an aside--I would be confident in Arlington even if Lindsey Scott Jr. or Holton Ahlers had to step in under center.

The Birmingham Stallions are impossible to fade. The fanbase, the elite coaching presence of Skip Holtz, and a growing championship pedigree. Alex McGough is no longer a Stallion, but C.J. Marable and Jace Sternberger return as integral parts of the 2023 offense, while the slate of receivers is composed of explosive, albeit less consistent names like Deon Cain and Amari Rodgers. A defense touting Scooby "Shark Dog" Wright, Kyahva Tezino, and Mark Gilbert is imposing, and there is endless intrigue with the QB situation, as Matt Corral will enter the season as the starter, backed up by K-State/Nebraska alumnus Adrian Martinez, with roster veteran J'Mar Smith is penciled in as the third-stringer. Among the four favorites, Birmingham remains the chalky yet undeniable pick as the team most likely to take the 2024 UFL Championship.

The best higher-reward bets are on the Memphis Showboats and San Antonio Brahmas. The Showboats had serious issues across the board on offense last season, as it was their defense and special teams playmaking that ended up giving them a real shot at the postseason. John DeFilippo makes the move from New Orleans to head coach of the Boats for 2024, and while he doesn't post the defensive chops of Todd Haley, there is no roster in the UFL that added more highly talented offensive assets. Case Cookus is the new man at QB, and Troy Williams makes for a phenomenal backup option. Wide Receivers Jonathan Adams and Vinny Papale along with TE Sage Surratt make for great targets, and the backfield of Darius Victor and Trey Williams is arguably the best in the UFL. This is a well-rounded, league-topping offense. The defense will need to round the team out, and ILB Vontae Diggs, OLB Greg Reaves, and NT John Atkins Sr. will be massive parts of that effort. At +800, I think the Memphis Showboats are an absolute steal.

The same goes for the San Antonio Brahmas. Aside from the fact that the Rock and UFL management would love to see this team succeed--this is one of the most improved rosters in the league as well. Surprisingly, Quinten Dormady will start the year backing up former California Bear Chase Garbers, with Tom Flacco third in the order. For a Jack Coan-led offense that had to depend on production from Jacques Patrick and Alize Mack week in and out, between Garbers and Dormady, it could be a huge improvement at the position with an uptick in explosiveness, and the pairing of star XFL tight end Cody Latimer with Mack and the acquisition of Jontre Kirklin at WR give this passing attack an entirely new look for this season. Anthony McFarland, Brycen Alleyne, and John Lovett may hold plenty of question marks for the Brahmas rushing game, together, I believe they at least have the makings of a serviceable rotation. Don't ignore the intrigue of Donald De La haye ("Deestroying") at kicker. This defense was rock-solid last year, and if they can maintain a good portion of those results behind new (and better) head coach Wade Phillips, then they are a tremendous value to take win the UFL Championship. +1400 is crazy.

Week 1 Picks

Birmingham Stallions at Arlington Renegades (Saturday, March 30th, at 1PM ET)

Arlington (+4), O/U 41.5

The big kickoff--champion vs. champion to start the 2024 UFL campaign. These are two well-coached teams with plenty of consistent returning pieces, and they are both going to be prepared for this game. They are pretty evenly matched on paper, though in comparing the two, I have always come away with the belief that Birmingham was the better overall team. In this game, my concern is that Matt Corral could definitely take more time to get going than Luis Perez, and if that happens, they could end up relying more on run-heavy QBs Martinez and/or Smith.

Even with that, the Stallions are the more highly skilled and talented roster overall, and I think they at least have a slight advance in most, if not all departments. But that Matt Corral learning curve could keep this game closer and lower scoring even with a great day by Luis Perez's standards. I see this game ending with a final score range of 17-14 to 24-21, so I am opting for the Renegades to cover with the under being the better choice.

St. Louis Battlehawks at Michigan Panthers (Saturday, March 30th, at 4PM ET)

St. Louis (-7), O/U 41.5

Ford Field is a giant, dystopian ghost town on gameday, and I am wholly uninspired with the Michigan Panthers roster other than the backfield and returning defensive pieces Ginda and Breeland Speaks. The Battlehawks, on the other hand, are a team designed to play their best indoors away from the elements where A.J. McCarron is least impeded to let fly at Butler, Shepherd, and Jackson. It is unclear exactly how Anthony Becht plans to use Wayne Gallman, but even as a bowling ball back who frequently blocks, that could easily be enough to give St. Louis the boost they most need against the Michigan defensive playmakers.

The defense for the Battlehawks will probably be good, not great, which is enough when you cover as much yardage as this squad should. I think they are at least seven points better than the Panthers--but the real question is what to do with this point total. The Battlehawks have all the potential to load the scoreboard, but they might be limited by the Panthers having to lean more heavily on their rushing combo of Hills and Colburn II. I see a final score range of 21-14 to 31 or 34-17 at a peak. So, lay the points with St. Louis on the road, and the over is probably the better choice by a mild margin.

D.C. Defenders at San Antonio Brahmas (Sunday, March 31st, at 12PM ET)

D.C. (-6), O/U 43.5, San Antonio ML (+225)*

In maintaining their quarterback scheme and relative defensive strength, but losing several top pass-catchers and workhorse Abram Smith, it is like this team is missing half of its identity, and I have many questions for this offense coming into the year in how it can adjust to the personnel movement. I trust HC Reggie Barlow and the excellent work he did last season, and the Defenders have a true home field advantage--this game, however, is not at home.

By stark contrast, the San Antonio Brahmas made massive upgrades to their coaching staff and offensive weaponry. Jacques Patrick was a boulder with legs, and they will have to figure out how to best deploy their RB trio, but that isn't a bad problem to have when your passing game has become so versatile and your quarterback can now deliver the ball at a distance over five yards. The odds for the Brahmas in this game and to win the championship just seem ludicrous given these facts, and I think the wrong team is favored in this game, so I think San Antonio +6 and +225 on the ML are no-brainers. So much so, that I see this game as having a final score range of 17-10 all the way to 27 or 28-21 in favor of the Brahmas, and so this O/U is one I might say to avoid. If I have to pick, I'd go under before we've gotten to see these new-look offenses in action.

Memphis Showboats at Houston Roughnecks (Sunday, March 31st, at 3PM ET)

Memphis (-1), O/U 40.5, Memphis ML (-115)*

The Showboats started off as the underdog in this game, which is wholly unfathomable. Compare any area. John DeFilippo vs. Curtis Johnson, Case Cookus vs. anyone on Houston's QB depth chart, Darius Victor and Trey Williams vs. T.J. Pledger, Jonathan Adams and Sage Surratt vs. anyone fielding passes for the Roughnecks--Memphis comes out on top. Houston's defense might be moderately better inch-by-inch, but I think the big playmaking ability of top Showboat defenders goes to significantly narrowing any gap that might exist.

The Showboats to cover a point and -115 on the ML seem like absolute formalities. That makes me nervous in Spring Football, but I simply can't turn away from this one just because it feels a little too easy. The hard part, as it is for all Week 1 matchups, is projecting a point total. I think that this Roughnecks offense is going to struggle to move the ball all game, and their best option will probably be to hand the ball to Pledger, bleeding more clock. Memphis will not struggle to score, and so this will come down to the immediate level of cohesion for the Showboats offense and the efforts of the Roughnecks defense on home turf. I could see this game ending up with a score of anywhere from 21-7 to 34-14, with it being more likely to me that Memphis hits 28+ than Houston surpassing 17. This is another O/U I would stay away from, but if I have to opt for one, I'd go under if the Showboats can't carry the weight of that total on their own.

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