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Rob takes a deep dive into Aaron Jones' fantasy football value to determine if you should be in or out for him in 2023.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past three months — and honestly, even if that’s the case — you’ve probably heard that Aaron Rodgers will not play quarterback for the Green Bay Packers next season. That duty falls to third-year player Jordan Love. For fantasy managers attempting to assess the value of current Green Bay players, this quarterback change is massive.
For the past four years, ever since Matt LaFleur was hired as the head coach of the Packers, Rodgers has been one of the very best quarterbacks in the NFL. That has been the case throughout his career, and his elite level of play has always had positive effects on all of his teammates. In this article, we will focus on Green Bay running back Aaron Jones. How does the Packers' quarterback change impact Jones’ 2023 fantasy football value? Should we be in or out on the six-year veteran?
You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:
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- D.J. Moore: In or Out Series Edition
- Michael Pittman Jr.: In or Out Series Edition
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Without Deserved Recognition, Aaron Jones Remains Elite
When discussing the best rushers in the league, we often think of players such as Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry, among others. Rarely is Jones mentioned, but make no mistake, he is simply one of the best all-around backs in the NFL.
While Jones may not have the same counting stats as the running backs mentioned above, he has never been afforded the same volume as them. Additionally, his efficiency in both rushing and receiving should not be overlooked. Take a look at his rushing efficiency metrics over the past four years since LaFleur took over as coach.
| Year | RYOE/Carry | YAC/Attempt | Att/BrkTkl | Breakaway Rate | True YPC |
| 2022 | 0.61 (6th) | 2.2 (8th) | 16.4 (14th) | 6.6% (15th) | 5.0 (7th) |
| 2021 | 0.18 (20th) | 2.3 (7th) | 14.3 (22nd) | 4.7% (17th) | 4.4 (17th) |
| 2020 | 1.05 (3rd) | 2.9 (2nd) | 14.4 (23rd) | 4.0% (25th) | 4.9 (5th) |
| 2019 | 0.18 (2nd) | 2.2 (21st) | 7.4 (2nd) | 3.4% (32nd) | 4.4 (19th) |
In three of the last four years, Jones has been in the top six in rushing yards over expected (RYOE). From 2020–2022, his yards after contact (YAC) per attempt were all in the top 10. While having Rodgers behind center certainly forced opposing defenses to focus more on the Packers' passing game than their rushing game, it’s hard not to be impressed with Jones' excellent year-to-year consistency. This also carries over to his receiving work.
| Year | Target Share | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | YPRR |
| 2022 | 13.4% (9th) | 72 (8th) | 59 (6th) | 395 (10th) | 1.50 (12th) |
| 2021 | 12.9% (10th) | 65 (7th) | 52 (6th) | 391 (10th) | 1.53 (15th) |
| 2020 | 14.7% (5th) | 63 (9th) | 47 (11th) | 355 (12th) | 1.47 (11th) |
| 2019 | 12.6% (15th) | 69 (11th) | 49 (14th) | 474 (8th) | 2.34 (12th) |
Jones has been in the top 12 in target share, receptions, and yards per route run (YPRR) in three out of the last four years. He also finished in the top 12 in targets and receiving yards every year since 2019. In other words, Jones is one of the top dual-threat running backs in the league. Looking at his all-around utilization, specifically his yards per touch and PlayerProfiler’s yards created per touch, Jones shines again.
| Year | Yards Created Per Touch | Yards Per Touch |
| 2022 | 3.28 (10th) | 5.6 (12th) |
| 2021 | 3.35 (9th) | 5.3 (11th) |
| 2020 | 2.99 (13th) | 5.9 (5th) |
| 2019 | 1.76 (8th) | 5.5 (10th) |
Jones' efficiency metrics show that he can be effective if used primarily as a rusher, and he can be very effective as a pass-catcher. Not surprisingly, his fantasy production has been superb ever since LaFleur came over to Green Bay.
| Year | Half-PPR PPG Average | RB Rank |
| 2022 | 13.1 | RB11 |
| 2021 | 13.5 | RB14 |
| 2020 | 16.8 | RB4 |
| 2019 | 18.3 | RB3 |
While there may be concerns about the negative impact Love could have on the Packers’ offense, Jones managed to finish as an RB1 last season despite scoring just seven touchdowns. That was his lowest touchdown total since his rookie season. In fact, he had his lowest touchdown rate in the past four years. He scored on only 2.57% of his touches, and he still finished as an RB1.
Can We Trust Jordan Love?
Many are concerned about Jordan Love's ability to run the Packers' offense, but their concerns might be a little exaggerated. Love has been in LaFleur’s offense for two years and knows the system well. He should have no limitations.
The Packers organization has also been one of the most successfully run clubs over the past 30 years. Did having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as your quarterbacks help the team? Of course! But Green Bay wouldn’t have had the success it had if it didn't have smart people making the decisions at the top. Does that mean Love is guaranteed to be successful? Of course not. Does it mean we should have more confidence in Love because a successful team traded a four-time MVP just to get him on the field? Yes.
It's not just Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike Martz who adores Love as a player. Even ESPN reporter Dan Orlovsky is singing his praises.
Don’t get me wrong, the Packers' offense is going to experience some ups and downs this season that isn’t typical for a Rodgers-led offense. It's Love’s first year starting and all of his primary pass-catchers are either rookies or in their second year. There will be some growing pains, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to be awful, especially with a coach like LaFleur calling the shots.
What To Expect From Aaron Jones in 2023
Since 2019, the Packers have averaged 452 rushing attempts per season. Running backs have combined for 402 of those. They also averaged 581 pass attempts since that time, with their backs having a 20.3% target share. In Love’s first season, LaFleur may choose to lean on the running game a bit more than he did with Rodgers.
The offense is also likely to operate at a faster pace. Green Bay has been a bottom-five offense in terms of plays per second in each of the last four years. It’s well-documented that Rodgers liked to get a good, long look at the defense before snapping the football. These are two changes fantasy managers should expect to see in 2023. The new, sped-up version of the Packers’ offense will help offset some of the anticipated dip in efficiency.
Looking at Jones’ utilization specifically, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a change to his percentages. However, if LaFleur does lean on the running game a bit more, Jones’ number of carries and targets could be impacted. Looking at his workload compared to the rest of the team’s rushers, it’s been remarkably consistent year-to-year.
| Year | % of RB Carries | % of RB Targets |
| 2022 | 51.9% | 62% |
| 2021 | 47.2% | 61% |
| 2020 | 57.3% | 55% |
| 2019 | 63.8% | 57% |
There is a change that happens after the 2020 season. That correlates with the exit of Jamaal Williams and the emergence of A.J. Dillon. Dillon’s bigger, bruising style allowed the Packers to take some of the pressure off of Jones as a runner and give him a bigger role in the passing game. That’s great for fantasy!
If we use the Packers’ four-year averages under Rodgers and give Jones a 50% share of the carries (he missed two games in 2021 which is why that percentage is lower) and a 62% share of the running back targets, he’d finish with 201 carries, 69 targets, and 52 receptions. Tailbacks typically catch around 75% of their targets, giving Jones 253 total touches.
If his yards per touch average next season is 5.3, matching his worst yards per touch average of the last four years, Jones would finish with around 1,341 yards. If it rises to 5.5, matching his average over the past four years, he would finish with 1,392 yards.
It’s certainly possible the Packers run the ball more in 2023, and that Love doesn’t target his running backs on 20.3% of his passes as Rodgers did. After all, the league average was 18%. Instead of working from their four-year average of 452 total rushes and 581 pass attempts, suppose Green Bay finishes the season with 475 rushes and 550 pass attempts with an 18% running back target share. How would that impact Jones’ projections?
In that scenario, Jones would finish with 213 carries, 62 targets, and 46 receptions. He would finish with slightly more touches (259), but six fewer receptions. His overall scrimmage yards would be about the same, coming in around 1,373 yards using the 5.3 yards per touch average, and 1,425 yards using the 5.5 yards per touch average.
The final matter to discuss is Jones’ touchdown potential in 2023. Jones struggled to score touchdowns last season. When we look at the team’s red zone utilization of their running back group, it’s easy to see why. His name is A.J. Dillon.
| Year | % of RZ Carries | % of Carries Inside 10-Yard Line | % of Carries Inside 5-Yard Line | Total RZ Touches | Total TDs |
| 2022 | 47.0% | 32.1% | 21.4% | 38 (15th) | 19 |
| 2021 | 40.7% | 37.5% | 36.4% | 47 (9th) | 11 |
| 2020 | 57.4% | 58.8% | 58.8% | 44 (12th) | 10 |
| 2019 | 63.0% | 67.9% | 81.0% | 44 (11th) | 7 |
There’s a significant decrease in Jones' percentage of red zone carries, carries inside the 10-yard line, and carries inside the five-yard line starting in 2021 when Dillon joined the team. While there was a decrease in the number of red zone carries Jones received, he did have nine red zone receptions, which was the fourth-highest in the league. He also kept his total number of red zone touches inside the top-15 among running backs.
Even if the offense is slightly worse this season, fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if Jones scores seven to nine touchdowns, even if his touchdown rate doesn’t get back to the rates we saw in the 2019–2021 seasons. If we assume Jones scores eight touchdowns (a slight improvement over last season) and use our four previous projections, we’d get a range of 12.2–12.7 half-PPR PPG. Last year, that would have ranked Jones somewhere between RB13 and RB17.
So… Are You In or Out?
Aaron Jones has a ranking of RB16 with an ADP of 45.0 on Yahoo! using half-PPR scoring. This would require fantasy managers to spend a late fourth-round pick to acquire him. Considering his projected range of outcomes listed above, we are in! Fantasy managers should not hesitate to draft Jones at his current price.
While his ADP is right in the middle of our range of outcomes, Jones possesses enough upside at his current cost that could allow him to have even more value for fantasy managers this season. This is especially true if he drops further than his current price, which is certainly possible considering the quarterback change.
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