NFL Mock Draft - First Round Predictions by Brandon Murchison

April 26, 2023

Brandon Murchison presents his mock draft of the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He takes a look at the players and the landing spots that will provide value in fantasy football.

The NFL Draft is an annual event that every football fan eagerly anticipates. For those who are into fantasy football, it's an exciting time to speculate on which rookies will make an impact in the upcoming season. The draft is a critical component of building a successful fantasy football team. It can mean the difference between winning or losing your league. Fantasy football players eagerly anticipate the draft to see where their favorite rookies will land. A player's destination can significantly impact their fantasy value. For example, a running back drafted to a team with an established quarterback and offensive line may have a better chance of success than one drafted to a team with a weaker offense. Thus, the draft's results can cause significant shifts in the fantasy rankings and player evaluations.

As the draft approaches, fantasy football enthusiasts start analyzing mock drafts, and scouting reports and the team needs to create its draft strategies. It's essential to stay updated on the draft's latest developments to adjust your rankings and target players in the later rounds. In short, the NFL Draft is an exciting event that holds immense value for fantasy football enthusiasts, and it's a time to hone in on rookie talent and strategize for the upcoming season.

With the 1st Round of the NFL Draft beginning on Thursday, I take you through my final mock draft and point out the fantasy-relevant players and what could be expected of them from both dynasty and re-draft leagues. Although some believe that this year's draft class is lacking in true fantasy talent, there are gems out there to be found. These rookies could become solid foundation pieces to help solidify a championship contender, or that late-round flier in re-draft and best ball leagues that can push a team over the top.

2023 NFL Draft

Carolina Panthers (1st selection overall) - Bryce Young, QB Alabama

The draft gets started with what many presume to be the lock as the top pick as the Panthers get their franchise quarterback in Young. Say what you will about Young's size as he heads into the league, but he has the poise and skills to become a top signal caller for years to come. He always seems to be thinking ahead on where to place the ball as he manipulates the defense as his receivers find the open spaces. His ability to extend plays will come in handy early in his career as he acclimates to the speed of the NFL. But of course, this could lead to durability issues with his slight size.

From a fantasy perspective, he will likely be the top QB off the board in dynasty leagues in a 1-QB setup and should develop into a solid starter if the Panthers can build talent around him. But early on, Young will stay on fantasy benches. As for re-draft leagues, it will be hard for Young to find solid ground as even a QB2 due to the lack of true talent around him. Simply put, 2023 is a season in which you should let another fantasy manager take on the risk.

Indianapolis Colts (3rd selection overall) - Will Levis, QB Kentucky

In what I project to be a trade for the Colts, they move up one spot to grab the quarterback that they are enamored with to avoid another team jumping in front of them. Whether the pick is a mistake remains to be seen, but I am on the record as not being a big believer in Levis and his progressions at the next level. He has a tremendous athletic profile and has shown on many occasions to have a cannon for an arm. But the issue for Levis has always been his inconsistencies, leading to inaccuracies and overthrows. This will become maddening for the Colts as he will never truly put it all together. His comps are all over the map, but in Levis, I don't see a long-term franchise quarterback. Instead, I see a player that will likely be moving on at the end of his rookie deal similar to Mitchell Trubisky.

In terms of his fantasy profile, Levi is a quarterback that you should avoid in all formats. Unless you are in dire straits at the position in a dynasty league, there will be no true value here. Whether it be in 2023 or beyond, Levis should be viewed as a low-end QB2 at best as I don't believe he has the overall tools to carry an offense in today's NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders (7th selection overall) - Anthony Richardson, QB Florida

Richardson is the ultimate wildcard in the 2023 NFL Draft. He could go as high as the second overall pick, or he could slide down the board as teams do not want to take on the project. He has drawn comparisons to Cam Newton, and rightfully so. Richardson's size and potential running ability alone are enough to fall in love with. His athletic profile alone would allow him to be one of the league's best from the day he enters the league. But the battle that the Raiders would see with Richardson is his ability to quickly process the field and deliver timely and accurate throws consistently. This is something that could be coached with patience. Something the Raiders would have the luxury of with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter for the 2023 season.

Projecting Richardson from a fantasy point of view is quite simple and it lies in his running ability. We have seen in recent seasons that quarterbacks can overcome a lack of passing prowess to be valuable for fantasy managers. His rushing upside alone could put him in a category similar to what we saw from Justin Fields in 2022. That is the upside for Richardson. Which is why I have him as my rookie QB2 in rankings. In Dynasty, you're likely not drafting him for 2023, but instead for what he can do for your roster in years to come. If he finds himself earning significant snaps as a rookie, his appeal in re-draft leagues goes up immensely.

Atlanta Falcons (8th selection overall) - Bijan Robinson, RB Texas

Robinson enters the league as one of the best prospects at the position since Saquon Barkley. The question has been where will he land? I believe if you follow the money (prop bets). The odds are that the Falcons are the team to make the selection. Even though Tyler Allgeier showed some positive signs down the stretch of the 2022 season, Robinson is just on another level altogether. He is a true three-down back in the NFL and can break a big play for a score from any level on the field. His patience is on display constantly, whether it be as a runner or a receiver out of the backfield.

Robinson's fantasy profile is one of a potential stud and it begins in Year One. In Dynasty, he should be the top player off the board regardless of your league format and will be the centerpiece of your team for several years. The question will be where he comes off the board in re-draft leagues. We have seen in recent seasons (Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley) that a rookie running back can come into the league and immediately become an elite fantasy option. I believe that will be the case for Robinson in 2023. He will likely be an early second-round pick, but I would not argue with taking the shot at the end of the first round.

Houston Texans (12th overall selection) - C.J. Stroud, QB Ohio State

For the life of me, I cannot understand the potential slide of Stroud that we are hearing entering the draft. The Texans should make this pick with the second overall, but with the talk that they are enamored with Will Anderson, it seems they will pass on a quarterback early. But if Stroud indeed slides and they can grab him with the 12th pick, it could become the steal of the draft. Stroud, I believe, is the most pro-ready quarterback in this class. He has the prototypical size and strength that teams covet in a franchise signal-caller. What sets him apart from others in the class is his accuracy. He can make any throw on the field and knows when to do it with touch. He also has a sneaky running ability that will come in handy in times when he needs to evade pressure.

From a fantasy perspective, Stroud could have the longest shelf-life in the league compared to the others in this class. With proper coaching and talented players placed around him, he can become a steady contributor as a QB1 for many years. Whether it be in Dynasty or re-draft. In rookie drafts, Stroud should be viewed as a mid-to-late first-round selection, especially for QB-needy teams. In 2023 re-draft leagues, Stroud should only be drafted late if at all as he could see struggles in his rookie season catching up to the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks (20th overall selection) - Zay Flowers, WR Boston College

The Seahawks take the first receiver off the board and the potential replacement for Tyler Lockett in the up-and-coming Zay Flowers. He has skyrocketed up draft boards with what he has shown during the pre-draft testing process. Landing in Seattle will have more long-term success for Flowers in fantasy than immediate payoff. He should be a mid-first-round selection in rookie drafts and playing opposite of D.K. Metcalf in the next few seasons will prove to be fruitful. In re-draft leagues, Flowers will struggle to find consistency with targets and could become no more than a WR3/WR4 in his rookie season.

Los Angeles Chargers (21st overall selection) - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Ohio State

The wide receiver that many, including myself, have as the top pass-catcher in this draft, Smith-Njigba lands with the Chargers. Similar to Flowers before him, he will eventually be taking over the role that will be left by Keenan Allen once the Chargers move on. For me, this landing spot could prove to be more valuable early on for fantasy managers. The oft-injured Mike Williams potentially missing time during the year opens the door for scoring potential outside as Smith-Njigba has the tools to rotate in or out of the formation. Outside of Bijan Robinson, Smith-Njigba should be the next non-QB player off the board in Dynasty rookie drafts and may develop into a WR1 with the Chargers. In re-draft formats, he should be viewed as a WR4/WR5 in 2023 with a definite upside if injuries occur.

Minnesota Vikings (23rd overall selection) - Jordan Addison, WR USC

With the departure of Adam Thielen, the Vikings are definitely in the market for receiver help opposite Justin Jefferson. With this landing spot, Addison could become more valuable early on compared to the other receivers in this class. With his versatility to move around the field, he could find himself in single coverage quite often, leading to plenty of scoring opportunities. With the Vikings in 2023, Addison could pop some big weeks in best-ball formats and has the potential ceiling as a high-end WR3 in re-draft leagues. As for Dynasty leagues, he should be selected in the first round of rookie drafts and could become a solid WR2 for many years if the Vikings do not fall off at QB after Kirk Cousins.

Dallas Cowboys (26th selection overall) - Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame

The more the days pass by the more it seems like this is becoming a definite outcome for the Cowboys in the first round as they have been talking glowingly about Mayer. After the departure of Dalton Schultz, a consistent Top 10 TE in fantasy, there is a need to fill. With Mayer in Dallas, he plays meaningful snaps starting in Week 1 and should immediately be viewed as a potential TE1, whether it be in Dynasty or re-draft formats. My fear with the coaching changes in Dallas is that Mayer may not see the Schultz-level targets, thus limiting his potential as a PPR asset.

Cincinnati Bengals (28th selection overall) - Dalton Kincaid, TE Utah

The pick here for the Bengals I have viewed is one of two ways. On one hand, they still could use an elite talent at tight end even though they signed Irv Smith during free agency. On the hand, with the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mixon, this is a prime spot for Jahmyr Gibbs. I am leaning that the Bengals want to further their potent passing attack with the prospect many are comparing to Travis Kelce. With the state of the position in fantasy, it would not be difficult for Kincaid to make an immediate impact. With the Bengals, the scoring potential could prove bountiful, making him a TE1 as soon as his rookie season. In Dynasty, by selecting Kincaid in the second round of rookie drafts, you are hoping to get a tight end that will be a no-brainer start for years just like Kelce.

Arizona Cardinals (30th selection overall) - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama

I have the Cardinals coming back into the first round to grab the ultra-talented Gibbs. Splitting time in 2023 with James Conner will limit his immediate upside in fantasy, but his PPR value will remain nonetheless as the Cardinals should be playing from behind quite often. In Dynasty, once Gibbs takes the full-time role in the backfield you could find yourself with an RB that presents dual-threat ability similar to what we've grown accustomed to with backs like Austin Ekeler. Gibbs will no doubt be the second running back off the board in rookie drafts due to his potential. The landing spot does indeed hamper his ability to be anything more than a Flex play in 2023 re-draft leagues.

Kansas City Chiefs (31st selection overall) - Quentin Johnston, WR TCU

The Chiefs take Johnston at the end of the first round in hopes to find that consistent outside presence that was lacking with the departure of Tyreek Hill. Johnston gives them a receiver that can consistently work all levels of the field, even though he has been labeled as one-dimensional. Working with Patrick Mahomes immediately places you on the fantasy radar and this landing spot puts Johnston firmly in the first round of Dynasty rookie drafts. With Travis Kelce eventually moving on, Johnston could become the coveted top target in this passing attack and put him in WR1 discussions. If we are just looking at his 2023 potential in re-draft leagues, Johnston may become a headache for fantasy managers due to inconsistent performances. This will likely have him as a matchup-dependent player towards the end of the year, but his highest potential is in best-ball leagues for the upcoming season.

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