RADIO
Average Draft Position (ADP) is a must-have piece of information when it comes to drafting. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we will look at Yahoo’s respective ADP data.
Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are priced higher or lower — being selected earlier or later — on Yahoo compared to other sites. The price tag being higher doesn't make them undraftable and being lower doesn't make them an automatic steal, but it helps to stay oriented with the bigger picture of ADP data. If you draft with our staff fantasy baseball rankings, you'll want to keep this in mind.
What we're looking to sidestep is the anchoring effect — a cognitive bias where we over-rely on the first piece of information encountered (such as the ADP ranking column in a draft room). Here, we simply raise awareness of those whose draft stock is seemingly getting raised or dropped based on nothing other than the site's default rank. ADP data is current as of March 6.
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Cheaper Early-Round Picks on Yahoo
*Please note I've omitted ESPN here, as their ADP data is extremely skewed by their points league data. I did an ESPN ADP analysis utilizing pre-draft ranks, as well as ADP, which you can read here. Now, let's get to it!
Austin Riley (3B – ATL) – Yahoo ADP: 30 (RTSports: 19, NFBC: 22, Fantrax: 23, CBS: 18, Average: 21)
We’re seeing hot-corner inflation everywhere, but Riley (and Nolan Arenado to a lesser extent) haven’t soared to the elite tier’s coattails yet. If you’re worried about paying a 3B tax going into 2023 Yahoo then perhaps you’ll be surprised at the lower rates.
J.T. Realmuto (C – PHI) – Yahoo ADP: 42 (RTSports: 28, NFBC: 24, Fantrax: 48, CBS: 32, Average: 35)
This isn’t terribly surprising compared to other sites like NFBC leaning on two-catcher formats, but it’s worth raising. Be sure your draft prep sheet doesn’t have you vaulting a catcher way up the board because of 2C data. JTR is nice, but more steals across baseball may eat into his profit margin as a catcher who runs.
Randy Arozarena (OF – TB) – Yahoo ADP: 45 (RTSports: 32, NFBC: 37, Fantrax: 52, CBS: 33, Average: 38)
I’ll be all over this. Arozarena and Bobby Witt Jr. were the only two players to go 20/30 last season. And the Tampa outfielder quietly lowered his strikeout rate by four percentage points compared to 2021. That went with a five-percentage-point rise in Zone Contact so here's some Tampa magic I can believe in for 2023.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B – MIA) – Yahoo ADP: 54 (RTSports: 40, NFBC: 41, Fantrax: 56, CBS: 47, Average: 46)
Matt Modica raised on Twitter that the gap between Witt in the first and Jazz Chisholm Jr. perhaps should be narrower. Chisholm would surely be higher if he’d been healthy this whole time, as a 162-game pace on his career would produce roughly 27 home runs and 30 steals. He’ll likely be 2B/OF eligible soon as well, so I’d enjoy the Yahoo discount here.
If your argument is Jazz is health risk, that’s fine.
Witt Splits Pre/Post
.254/.253 AVG
.299/.288 OBP
.450/.398 SLG
.196/.145 ISO
.321/.297 wOBA
107/89 wRC+
I think Witt is fine first round pick but to say he has no risk is naive.
— Matt Modica (@ctmbaseball) March 5, 2023
Cristian Javier (SP – HOU) – Yahoo ADP: 74 (RTSports: 62, NFBC: 64, Fantrax: 65, CBS: 69, Average: 65)
Javier’s unclear role to kick off 2022 led to some bright spots mixed with turbulence. Four early relief appearances yielded 11 ⅓ IP of scoreless ball with a 17/2 K/BB ratio. But he was meant for more as Houston stretched out for a consistent rotation slot. A few hiccups (3 ⅔ IP, 7 ER v. WAS on 5/14 and 3 ⅔ IP, 5 ER v. SEA on 6/6) showed up before truly blossoming on June 25 with seven innings of no-hit ball against the Yankees.
His pitch count went too high with 13 strikeouts to take it to the finish line, but the dominance was clear. He then struck out 14 Angels over seven frames of blemish-free ball outside of a solo homer. His overall 33.2% strikeout rate was tied with Shohei Ohtani for the third-best mark among pitchers with at least 120 innings in ‘22. There’s ace potential here and I’m happy to mine the cheapest ADP.
Eloy Jimenez (OF – CHW) – Yahoo ADP: 80 (RTSports: 69, NFBC: 71, Fantrax: 76, CBS: 53, Average: 70)
We’ve got a best-shape-of-his-life alert with Jimenez reporting 25-30 pounds lost this offseason. He’s only played in 139 games over the last two seasons but a healthy Jimenez should pop 30 homers with a shot at 100 RBI in the heart of Chicago’s order. Many are lamenting the lack of top-flight OF depth when filling the roster so here’s a friendly power source to pair with early speed.
Dansby Swanson (SS – CHC) – Yahoo ADP: 81 (RTSports: 68, NFBC: 75, Fantrax: 60, CBS: 67, Average: 68)
I’d been avoiding Swanson in most early drafts as it seemed folks were taking his Atlanta stats at face value for 2023. Maybe they had inside information on a return signing but he’s now a Cubbie. The top of their order is valuable if Seiya Suzuki comes back quickly and Cody Bellinger regains his form. Last year’s 25 steal attempts are tough to project re-occurring but the new rules do open that door. I’m okay buying around pick 80.
Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI) – Yahoo ADP: 84 (RTSports: 74, NFBC: 69, Fantrax: 90, CBS: 72, Average: 78)
Carroll and his blazing speed are piercing the hearts of many fantasy drafters. I’ve seen him go inside the top 50 on some NFBC drafts and enjoyed scooping him later on across Fantrax points leagues through February. The exciting 22-year-old had 23 home runs and 31 steals with an average north of .300 between 91 Double- and Triple-A games prior to the September cup of coffee. It seems Yahoo is the hype laggard, so enjoy it while you can.
Corbin Carroll's first-inning double had an exit velocity of 109.1 MPH. His hardest-hit ball in the big leagues last year was 107.5 MPH.
— Jesse Friedman (@JesseNFriedman) February 28, 2023
Tommy Edman (2B – STL) – Yahoo ADP: 86 (RTSports: 64, NFBC: 72, Fantrax: 80, CBS: 75, Average: 73)
Last offseason we questioned whether Edman could provide double-digit homers again, and he did! Two straight years of 10/30/.260 performance atop the Cards’ order is plenty valuable and getting a full-round discount is more than welcome.
Andres Gimenez (2B – CLE) – Yahoo ADP: 96 (RTSports: 76, NFBC: 80, Fantrax: 94, CBS: 86, Average: 84)
Gimenez enjoyed an age-23 breakout with 17 home runs, 20 steals, and a .297/.371/.466 slash line over 146 games in ‘22. This came after a horrid .633 OPS in just 68 games following the trade over to Cleveland from the Mets.
But he showed hope by going a perfect 11-for-11 on the basepaths and ‘22 saw the barrel rate climb from 3.6% to 6.2%. I won’t bank on another .353 BABIP but an average of around .270 with modest pop and speed is a great way to round out an infield near pick 100.
Wander Franco (SS – TB) – Yahoo ADP: 97 (RTSports: 91, NFBC: 85, Fantrax: 91, CBS: 84, Average: 88)
You’ll see in a bit that many shortstops are getting pushed up on Yahoo, but not so with Franco. Perhaps hopes were pegged too high for the super-prospect who did well when at full health but battled a leg injury and broken hamate bone. The composite wasn’t spectacular but I’ll copy this bit from my Shortstop EDV article:
The 21-year-old’s first 28 games yielded a .331/.355/.525 slash line with four homers and three steals. But May 10-30 saw him go 9-for-60 (.150) with zero homers before being placed on the IL. Then a hit in 11-of-12 games before the hamate fracture and a .322/.381/.471 finish across 25 games. (I’ll happily take this potential near pick 100!)
Costly Early-Round Picks on Yahoo
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR) – Yahoo ADP: 8 (RTSports: 11, NFBC: 12, Fantrax: 14, CBS: 12, Average: 12)
Remember, this doesn’t mean he’s undraftable or a bad value. Just that you might have to shift your expectations on the price point. Guerrero boasts an immense ceiling but his OPS slipped to .818 in 2022, likely rooted in his fly-ball rate dropping by six percentage points from ‘21.
We’d seen this end of the yo-yo in the shortened 2020 with a 27.9% fly-ball rate, which rose to 36.5% in ‘21, and then 30.6% last year. But power isn’t all. We also started to see stolen bases trickle in when John Schneider took over as skipper. All eight steals came in the second half of the season. Toronto wants to be more aggressive. You have to pay for the fun here, though.
Spencer Strider (SP/RP – ATL) – Yahoo ADP: 24 (RTSports: 33, NFBC: 31, Fantrax: 36, CBS: 45, Average: 36)
Look at Yahoo being ahead of the curve! I’ve seen Strider recently go toward the second round in NFBC drafts as helium grows, but don’t think you’re sneaking him by here. The 24-year-old lost little in transitioning to the rotation.
His K-BB% actually rose from 27.4% to 30.3%. Out of SPs with >100 IP, Shohei Ohtani’s 26.5% rate was second in the majors. The upside illustrated by that margin is why this slot is justified, small sample be damned.
Undervalued player: Spencer Strider (Quadzilla🦵).
Second in all of baseball with 2.57 xERA with such elite control metrics (6 xBB%) for a young pitcher. 16.4% Swinging strike rate with an electric fastball that had a -20 (🤯) run value. He will crush the current ADP (30). pic.twitter.com/CC0ytOvHn3
— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) February 25, 2023
Edwin O. Diaz (RP – NYM) – Yahoo ADP: 25 (RTSports: 30, NFBC: 27, Fantrax: 71, CBS: 44, Average: 34*)
I’ve omitted Fantrax for relievers with the heavy points-league skew. Other sites have that integrated into their aggregate data but we all know 71 is off just by looking at it. Most of the closers on Yahoo are near the pricier side of the spectrum, so prepare accordingly.
Max Scherzer (SP – NYM) – Yahoo ADP: 32 (RTSports: 38, NFBC: 48, Fantrax: 39, CBS: 30, Average: 39)
Scherzer gets to call his own pitches now and ramp up the tempo as he pleases. Will his aging arm keep up with his mentality on the mound? In just 145 ⅓ IP we still got a 2.29 ERA/0.91 WHIP with a 30.6% strikeout rate (his lowest since ‘14) for 2022. He turns 39 in late July so I’m not keen on seeking out the highest price point on Mad Max here.
Corey Seager (SS – TEX) – Yahoo ADP: 43 (RTSports: 52, NFBC: 57, Fantrax: 58, CBS: 42, Average: 52)
Corey “No More Shift” Seager is bringing out the optimist in everyone. He’s coming off of a career-best 33 home runs in his Texas debut despite a 39% fly-ball rate. That’s fine, but he’d met that mark in 2019 and ‘20 too. I say this because a few have attributed his horrible .242 BABIP (career .317) to more flies.
It’s not that simple. Life rarely is! The bad luck hit him hard with that .772 OPS but no longer lining out to shallow right field will help. Even if the shift stuck around, it is unlikely that the same player would pace the field at hits lost to the shift, no matter what their batted-ball profile said. But you’re paying roughly a round over the average and that’s close to the ceiling for a player with no speed factor.
Julio Urias (SP – LAD) – Yahoo ADP: 41 (RTSports: 54, NFBC: 53, Fantrax: 44, CBS: 54, Average: 51)
You don’t have to go far online to find people debating Urias’ stellar ratios against his sabermetrics. A career 2.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP have a good-not-great 3.44 FIP, 3.91 SIERA, and 4.00 xFIP over 600 frames. The southpaw hit a new high with the 2.16 ERA/0.96 WHIP in 2022, but the 3.71 FIP/3.66 SIERA still lingered.
When do you acknowledge our current metrics simply can’t quantify the X-factors at play? Have you crossed that threshold with Urias? If so, then I suppose this Yahoo ADP is palatable. I would hope the 24.1% strikeout rate edges back towards the 26% mark from 2021, but the Dodgers provide many wins, and that with plus ratios will do just fine.
Yu Darvish (SP – TEX) – Yahoo ADP: 58 (RTSports: 79, NFBC: 78, Fantrax: 50, CBS: 71, Average: 68)
I’ve had him circled in the fifth round of many NFBC drafts thus far and can see how his ADP would cross into the 50s. I don’t have to be happy about the price bump, but I can see it. We hadn’t seen over 190 frames out of him since 2013 and the 0.95 WHIP was a career-best mark.
But his average exit velocity held steady, as did his barrel rate allowed. There’s no real anomaly in his xStats (in fact, most rose a bit compared to 2021). I’m suspicious of paying a premium for great results without anything clearly changed under the hood. I’m not vehemently opposed but this is the high end of his spectrum.
Starling Marte (OF – NYM) – Yahoo ADP: 62 (RTSports: 70, NFBC: 77, Fantrax: 87, CBS: 59, Average: 71)
Most sites are punishing Marte for his coming off of injuries that required surgery on both groins. How the man ran at all in 2022, I’ll never know. His sprint speed did decline but not by much, as going from 28.4 ft/sec to 28.0 is well within the aging curve expectation.
I wouldn’t count on a giant speed rebound to 2021’s 47 SBs due to good health, but most systems project 25-30. You’re opening yourself up to more risk at this price on Yahoo with Marte failing to crack 145 games played since 2015, but he’ll contribute in all five traditional categories within a Mets juggernaut.
Xander Bogaerts (SS – SD) – Yahoo ADP: 63 (RTSports: 86, NFBC: 84, Fantrax: 74, CBS: 70, Average: 79)
This is a bridge too far for me, but I understand the love for San Diego’s prospective leadoff man. Park Factors aren’t perfect, but Statcast’s page shows Fenway Park as the third-best overall venue for right-handed hitters. Unfortunately, Petco Park is ranked as the third-worst.
Tim Anderson (SS – CHW) – Yahoo ADP: 75 (RTSports: 98, NFBC: 87, Fantrax: 114, CBS: 82, Average: 95)
Here’s another example of no injury discount on Yahoo. He hasn’t eclipsed 125 games since 2018 but has hit over .300 in each season since then, going a perfect 13-for-13 on steal attempts last season. Perhaps more important is the huge cut in strikeouts, going from 21.6% in ‘21 to 15.7% in ‘22.
If we get more discipline and a return of his usual ~15% HR/FB rate next to the speed atop Chicago’s order then I’m still good at 75. But you can see why Franco’s ADP is quite the outlier!
Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD) – Yahoo ADP: 88 (RTSports: 111, NFBC: 129, Fantrax: 100, CBS: 102, Average: 111)
The Dodger ace turns 35 on March 19 and has been limited to roughly 125 innings in both 2021 and ‘22. Kershaw may not have reliable medicals but his 2.57 FIP and 2.98 SIERA were bests since 2016. He still carried a 27.8% strikeout rate, which aligns with his career mark.
You must pad your rotation with some depth to absorb any IL time, but the southpaw remains a stud to build around. He's not meeting his lofty standards at this point as he rounds into form this spring. If things like that and his back injury have him on your Do Not Draft List then play here and let someone use an earlier pick on him!
"It wasn’t awesome but everything felt healthy. Fastball and curveball were actually decent. It was just my slider wasn’t there. Overall for a B game at 10:15 I’ll take it. I feel healthy. I feel ready to go."
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) March 5, 2023
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