RADIO
Matt's bold predictions for the 2026 fantasy football season. His top calls, player outlooks, and analysis for fantasy football leagues, featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and more.
Anyone can make a prediction, but few have the intestinal fortitude to put themselves out there and get a little crazy in doing so. It’s hard to win fantasy football championships without taking some risks; mild takes need not apply. It’s time to turn the heat up with some bold predictions.
Always expect the unexpected. Never become complacent. All it takes is the right set of circumstances to turn a bold take into a “we should have seen that coming” moment. Last season, some considered Drake Maye finishing as a top-5 quarterback in fantasy as spicy; now that is the expectation.
Here are eight bold predictions, also known as "hot takes," that, when the smoke clears, could very well come to fruition.
Bookmark our updated and revamped fantasy football rankings portal for all league formats!PPR rankings | Half-PPR rankings | Non-PPR (Standard) rankings | Rookie rankings | Superflex rankings | Best Ball rankings | Underdog rankings | Dynasty rankings | IDP rankings
Jahmyr Gibbs Breaks Fantasy Football Scoring as We Know It
Back in 2003, Jamal Lewis won the Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 2,066 yards and 14 touchdowns. That same season, Ahman Green finished with 1,883 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns, Priest Holmes scored on 27 occasions in the run game along with 1,420 rushing yards, and LaDainian Tomlinson had 100 receptions and 725 receiving yards to go along with 1,645 yards on the ground.
We are talking. That season also saw Deuce McAllister, Clinton Portis, and Fred Taylor all top 1,500 yards on the ground.
Fast forward to 2026 and Jahmyr Gibbs is poised to bring back that Madden-type production to the position. Despite “splitting” the backfield with David Montgomery last season, Gibbs would end up finishing seventh in touches with 320 as he carried the ball 243 times for 1,223 yards and caught 77 passes for 616 receiving yards.
With Montgomery now gone, Detroit either hands Isiah Pacheco the ball 158 times or gives Gibbs 300-plus carries. Pacheco, in Kansas City, averaged 3.7 and 3.9 yards per carry in each of the past two seasons and has found the end zone just twice as a runner over his last 20 regular-season contests. Montgomery was that hammer on the goal line; expect more opportunities for Gibbs inside the five this season.
Jahmyr Gibbs is inevitable.
NYGvsDET on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/xVC8d7DHuz
— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2025
In six games without Montgomery, Gibbs averaged 110.8 rushing yards per game, 6.0 yards per carry, 24.5 touches per game, and scored eight times. If you take those numbers and project them over the course of the season, that’s 1,870 rushing yards, 620 receiving yards, and 34 touchdowns. Obviously something is going to have to give, but Gibbs is positioned well to be this generation's LT.
Zay Flowers Finishes Top Five in Receptions
Last season, Zay Flowers finished with 86 receptions for 1,211 yards and five touchdowns. With Declan Doyle calling plays, expect a significant increase in production for Flowers, whose ceiling may be closer to 110 receptions, 1,400 receiving yards, and a top-12 fantasy finish at the wide receiver position.
The competitive outside matchup between Christian Gonzalez and Zay Flowers. @awscloud #NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/KTGoGndpP9
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 22, 2025
First, every year Lamar Jackson has had a new offensive coordinator, he has gone on to win the league MVP. I’m not ready to go that far yet, but if he's a strong MVP candidate, he should get the ball into Flowers' hands more frequently than the 29% target share from a season ago would suggest.
If you’ve been paying attention, Flowers has seen that target share increase each season, going from 22.7% to 25.4% to the fifth-highest target share last season.
In 2021, Mark Andrews set the Ravens' reception record with 107 receptions; if Flowers can surpass that number and hit the 110 prediction, he would be right there with the likes of Puka Nacua (129), Trey McBride (126), Ja'Marr Chase (125), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (119), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (117).
Baltimore was reportedly in the market to add a veteran receiver, with many pointing to Stefon Diggs joining the team. That has yet to happen, and the veteran who was brought in was David Moore, who poses no real threat to Flowers’ targets. Baltimore is hopeful that rookie Elijah Sarratt and Ja'Kobi Lane can be factors for this offense, but they are likely a year away from bearing fruit.
Jayden Reed Becomes a League Winner
Most people have forgotten about Jayden Reed; with Christian Watson returning to the Packers and making an impact on the passing game, it also hasn’t helped that Reed missed 10 games last season and was limited to 19 receptions for 207 yards.
However, simply dismissing Reed could be the downfall of many fantasy enthusiasts. Since Reed entered the league in 2023, the Packers pass-catcher leads the league in fantasy points per target as well as passer rating when targeted. Here we are with 131 vacated targets available after the departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.
Most people prefer Watson over Reed, but two factors no one talks about are the struggles along the Packers offensive line, which is projected to be bottom five this season, meaning downfield shots will be harder to come by. Second, Watson doesn’t have Doubs on the other side to draw coverage and will be the top boundary receiver, drawing the more difficult coverage assignments, opening things up underneath for Reed.
Reed is one of the best runners after the catch and will have designed plays called for him as both a pass-catcher and a runner this coming season. The last time Reed was healthy, he had 20 rushing attempts and an additional 163 yards.
Prediction: Reed finishes with 75 receptions for 1,040 yards and has 25 rushing attempts for 235 yards, pushing his total yards over 1,200 and ahead of where Chris Olave (1,160) and Nico Collins (1,153) finished last season.
DeVonta Smith is This Year's Version of Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Not only will DeVonta Smith outproduce A.J. Brown this season, but Smith’s production will also rival that of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2025.
First things first, we have a Super Bowl MVP throwing to a Heisman Trophy winner. Philadelphia’s offense cannot be any more dysfunctional in 2026 than it was in 2025. Even with all the shortcomings on the Eagles offense, Smith caught 77 of 113 targets for 1,008 receiving yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the WR21 in fantasy.
Before Smith-Njigba had the season he had, he was already coming off a WR9 finish the previous season in which he finished with 253 fantasy points (14.9). Smith-Njigba took that “next step” after the departure of DK Metcalf. Smith faces a similar situation with Brown taking his 78 receptions, 121 targets, and 1,003 receiving yards to Foxborough.
Philadelphia added Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers, Dontayvion Wicks, Marquise Brown, and Elijah Moore this past offseason. Still, even with those additions, Smith is in line for an increased target share. Smith has one season under his belt in which he received 130-plus targets. In that campaign, he finished as the WR9 with 240.9 fantasy points, averaging 15.1 per game.
Based on last season’s fantasy finishes, 240 fantasy points would have been good enough to finish as the WR7 between Chris Olave and Nico Collins.
Colby Parkinson is This Year's “Surprise” TE
We see it every year, as a hero emerges from the depths of the ADP. The tight end position has been known for years as a fantasy wasteland. While names such as Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Tyler Warren, and Harold Fannin Jr. highlight the future of the position, every year a name no one expects finds their way into the top 12.
In 2019, it was Austin Hooper. In 2020, do you remember Robert Tonyan, who was the TE4 along with Logan Thomas, who finished as the TE8? In 2021, Taysom Hill averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game, and Dawson Knox was the TE7. In 2022, Cole Kmet and Juwan Johnson each were among the top-8 fantasy finishers at the position. In 2023, a rookie named Sam LaPorta was the overall TE1. In 2024, Tucker Kraft was the TE7, but Jonnu Smith’s 222 fantasy points were the fourth-highest total that season.
To quote @TomBrady, an absolute piss missle from Matthew Stafford to Colby Parkinson for six!
📺 @NFLonFOX | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/4OCFJe8QZ9
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 14, 2025
Last season, not one, not two, but three rookie tight ends finished among the top 12, with AJ Barner finishing as the TE14 with 147.3 fantasy points. That’s a brief history and a long-winded way to say Colby Parkinson is well-positioned for a top-12 finish in 2026.
From Week 10 through Week 18 last season, Parkinson averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game and was TE4 over that period with 116 fantasy points, a number only McBride, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts Sr. surpassed. Parkinson finished as a TE12 or better in seven of those nine games. Looking at the Rams' final six games, Parkinson had five or more targets in five of six contests and 35 total targets.
Tyler Shough Finishes as a QB1
From Week 10 through the conclusion of the regular season last year, Tyler Shough’s 18.6 fantasy points per game were tied with Dak Prescott for the eighth-highest average over that eight-game stretch. Despite being among the elite to conclude his rookie campaign, the Saints signal-caller finds himself coming off the draft board behind Jordan Love and Kyler Murray as the QB20.
This feels eerily similar to Drake Maye, who was QB23 his rookie season, averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game but from Week 6 through Week 17 averaged 16.8 fantasy points (QB14) and entered last season as the QB16.
For Shough, he has some weapons at his disposal as Olave returns having secured that bag, as well as the offseason additions of Travis Etienne Jr. and Jordyn Tyson.
In just nine starts, Shough proved himself, completing 67.6% of his attempts for 2,384 yards and 10 touchdowns, adding 186 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the run game. Upgrades on the offensive side of the ball and an enhanced command of this offense in his sophomore season make Shough a prime candidate for a breakout.
For those looking to stack, in games Shough and Olave were on the field, Olave would average 6.2 receptions and 9.4 targets per contest, resulting in 80.3 receiving yards and 18.2 fantasy points per game in PPR formats. He was the WR8 over that time.
Kaelon Black Emerges as a Top-3 Rookie RB
I don’t like predicting injuries, but when looking at Christian McCaffrey’s history, there is an established pattern of missing significant time the season after experiencing a heavy workload.
For instance, look back at the 2019 and 2023 seasons in which McCaffrey finished with 403 and 413 touches, respectively. In the seasons that followed, McCaffrey would end up missing 26 games combined.
In 2025, McCaffrey finished with 450 touches; if the historical trend were to continue, then McCaffrey missing significant time in 2026 shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, making the need for fantasy owners to take out an insurance policy all the more important this season.
When looking at the 49ers' depth chart, San Francisco returns Isaac Guerendo and Jordan James to the backfield. Unfortunately for James, he suffered a broken rib early in training camp that opened the door for rookie Kaelon Black to get more opportunities.
While Black lacks the receiving upside, the third-round selection from Indiana averaged 5.6 yards per carry last season as he churned out 1,040 yards on the ground for the national champion Hoosiers.
If you recall, when McCaffrey missed time in 2024, whoever was the lead back in McCaffrey’s absence assumed more than 85% of the team's carries. Both Guerendo and Jordan Mason became significant factors in fantasy football when their number was called.
In fact, Mason’s 18.6 fantasy points per game over the first four games of the season were the fifth most among running backs.
Deebo Samuel Sr. Finishes as a Top-15 Fantasy Receiver Despite Late Signing
What people tend to forget when it comes to Deebo Samuel Sr. is that he was still good last season. Before returning to the 49ers, Samuel spent some time in Washington last season.
He was 18th in target share (22.4%), 21st in first-read target share (27.3%), and ninth in both yards after the catch per reception (6.6) and missed tackles forced per reception (24%). In other words, he was still Deebo Samuel.
OH MY, DEEBO.
DALvsWAS on @Netflix pic.twitter.com/kUXeh1JJbJ
— NFL (@NFL) December 25, 2025
Samuel also found himself operating out of the slot more often in Washington, and the efficiency followed. Not only did he experience a higher target rate, but the 2.27 yards per route versus man coverage was among the highest of his career. Now back in the Bay Area, Samuel should once again be allowed to work the slot with Mike Evans on the outside.
With Ricky Pearsall’s season up in the air, De'Zhaun Stribling still a rookie, and George Kittle coming off an Achilles injury, Samuel is poised to play a significant role once again in an offense in which he recently finished as the WR13 (2023), averaging 16.3 fantasy points per game.
Who Should I Draft Fantasy Football Tool
Read more about the free Who Should I Draft tool here.
Compare up to four players and we'll tell you who to draft...
2026 Player Decisions. Today's focus is on specific players - Jahmyr Gibbs, Zay Flowers, Jayden Reed, DeVonta Smith, Colby Parkinson, Kaelon Black, Deebo Samuel Sr. These are some common searches for 2026 fantasy football drafts.
Using The Tool. This is a simple tool but very powerful. The first step is to enter the player names that you want to compare. In the first box, search for the first player's name. In the second box, search for the second player's name. Compare up to four NFL players at once, and then click the Who To Draft? button to see who the recommended draft picks are based on fantasy football rankings, projections, and more.
Improvements For Who Should I Draft? You may have noticed our Who Should I Draft? tool has gotten an overhaul. We've added lots of great features for you to give you as much information as possible to win your 2026 fantasy football drafts. You'll see NFL player tiles with headshots and bye weeks, stats and projections, ADPs, strength of schedule, enhanced search results with data to compare, and a slick interface. We hope you enjoy!
How It Works. Our RotoBaller staff puts together their preseason fantasy football rankings and projections based on their research and update it constantly throughout the preseason. That information is the core data that is powering the decision-making in this tool. When you search for player names, you will only see those players who are ranked.
Scoring Formats. Fantasy football managers play in various types of leagues, and this tool allows you to choose whether it's PPR scoring, Half-PPR scoring, or Standard (Non-PPR) scoring. The second thing you want to do is to select the scoring format. There are three small radio buttons (small circles), so click on the scoring format you prefer. The results may vary based on the scoring format you select.
Popular Draft Searches. Curious to see some tough draft decisions for 2026? Below you will find a list of some popular Who Should I Draft? searches that RotoBaller readers are looking at. Click any of the links to see the result and recommendation.
Popular Player Comparison Searches - Who To Draft
Below are some popular searches and comparisons from our Who To Draft tool for 2026 drafts for Jahmyr Gibbs, Zay Flowers, Jayden Reed, DeVonta Smith, Colby Parkinson, Kaelon Black, Deebo Samuel Sr.:
More Fantasy Football Analysis
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
