5 Second Half Fantasy Baseball Bust Candidates: Starting Pitchers to Avoid (2026)

July 16, 2026

Thunder Dan's second-half fantasy baseball bust candidates for starting pitchers in 2026. Trade away or sell high on pitchers like Robbie Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Nick Martinez.

The 2026 MLB season is ready to resume, and we have only a little more than two weeks until the August 3rd trade deadline. Teams are looking to make moves for the playoff run, and fantasy managers are looking to address holes in their rosters, too.

Identifying second-half bust candidates, particularly those who are currently ranked high enough to demand a decent trade return, can be a useful exercise. Some of these pitchers I'll discuss today are true sell-high guys, while others are either cut candidates or players who can be safely left on the waiver wire.

All roster percentages are from Yahoo! Now, let's see which starters you should be wary of in the second half.

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

2026 Fantasy Stats: 106.2 IP, 8 W, 3.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 90 K

2026 Key Advanced Stats: 4.95 SIERA, 4.62 xERA, 20.3% K%, 11.7% BB%, .238 BABIP, 9.3% Barrel%

Current Yahoo! Rank: 216

There was a day when Robbie Ray was an incredibly valuable fantasy asset. He was dominant in his Cy Young 2021 season in Toronto and really good in his first year in Seattle before his injury. He was even pretty decent last year in terms of being an innings eater who could return a strikeout per inning.

We could live with the walks and home runs allowed when Ray was racking up 200+ strikeouts per season, but he's seen his strikeouts dip in a big way this year. His K% sits at just 20.3% with a career-low 10.6% SwStr%. And the walk rate is still ugly, leading to an 8.6% K-BB%, the third-worst mark of any qualified starter behind only Zac Gallen and Andrew Abbott.

Ray is rumored to be on the trade block, and perhaps a change of scenery could help him out in the second half. But he simply hasn't been the same pitcher this season, and I don't trust him to keep up his recent stretch of production since he's been outpitching his underlying stats.

Fantasy managers should be looking to trade Ray, too, as this seems like a potential sell-high opportunity for a pitcher with more name recognition than actual fantasy value.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

2026 Fantasy Stats: 114 IP, 8 W, 2.29 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 79 K

2026 Key Advanced Stats: 4.82 SIERA, 5.06 xERA, 17.1% K%, 7.9% SwStr%, 9.6% Barrel%, 87.8% LOB%, .247 BABIP

Current Yahoo! Rank: 90

E-Rod is a fraud! Insert the "he can't keep getting away with this" gif from Breaking Bad here. Seriously, though, I have been waiting for the bottom to fall out of E-Rod's 2026 season for the last month, and somehow he's still humming along and is now rostered in 68% of leagues.

I thought he would surely stumble against the Brewers or Dodgers, but he turned in two quality starts. But regression comes for everyone in time, and there's simply no way that Rodriguez can escape his poor underlying metrics for much longer.

Does this look like a pitcher with a 2.29 ERA?

Like Ray, E-Rod has a terrible K-BB% at 8.7%. But he's been far luckier on batted balls and with runners on base. His strand rate is the highest of any qualified starter, and his .247 BABIP is 55 points lower than his career average of .302 (and the MLB average is typically right around .300).

The gap between his xERA and ERA (2.77) is the widest of any MLB starter. He's prime for a second-half blow-up, and when it finally comes, you're not going to want him on your roster killing your ratios.

I'd trade him for virtually anything right now. And for those of you who refuse to dump him for someone who's more lightly rostered but with more potential, be prepared to suffer the consequences!

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

2026 Fantasy Stats: 62.2 IP, 3 W, 4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 50 K

2026 Key Advanced Stats: 6.11 xERA, 17.9% K%, 9.7% BB%, 9.1% SwStr%, 89.9% Z-Contact%

Current Yahoo! Rank: 854

Yes, you read that correctly: Lodolo's rank is 854, and yet he's still rostered in 66% of leagues! There's really no logical explanation for this other than managers keep waiting for the pitcher we all hoped Lodolo would become one day to materialize magically.

But I really don't think it's happening this year, or maybe ever. Lodolo is still only 28 years old, but he is starting to look like a potential bust after showing such potential in his first few seasons.

Lodolo still has pretty solid stuff, but his command has been terrible. His Location+ rating of 91 is tied with Robbie Ray and Taj Bradley for the worst among MLB starters - yikes! His strikeouts have evaporated this year, and he simply isn't missing bats this year, as indicated by his career-worst SwStr% and Z-Contact%.

He's now heading to the IL with, you guessed it, another blister issue! Blister injuries have plagued Lodolo throughout his career and is now set to miss more time again. He's going to have to change how he grips his curveball at some point if he's going to prevent this recurring problem, but his curveball is also arguably his best pitch. I'm not sure how a pitcher deals with that.

Just ask yourself, would you be holding a pitcher on your IL who has a 4.60 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP if you cover up their name? If you are still rostering Lodolo, I'd cut him outright and save that IL spot for a player who is more likely to come back from injury and contribute.

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

2026 Fantasy Stats: 105.1 IP, 8 W, 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 62 K

2026 Key Advanced Stats: 4.79 SIERA, 4.67 xERA, 14.5% K%, 92.3% Z-Contact%, 85.2% LOB%, 7.8% HR/FB

Current Yahoo! Rank: 115

Martinez made his first All-Star game and is enjoying the best season of his career at age 35. That's an awesome real-life baseball story, and his success is a testament to the Rays' ability to get the most out of their pitchers.

After spending four years in Japan pitching in the NPB, Martinez has been a useful fifth starter and long man in both San Diego and Cincinnati before putting together the best first half of his career this season.

But let's remember that this is a pitcher with a career ERA of 4.00 and WHIP of 1.28.

But even though he's leaning into his sinker and elite changeup more than ever before, I just don't see how he can keep this up! He's outperforming both his SIERA and xERA by a full two runs! His 14.5% strikeout rate is the second-worst of any qualified starter. His Z-Contact% is the third-worst, behind only Sonny Gray (who at least is a called-strike artist) and Michael McGreevy (stay tuned for more).

Like E-Rod, he has an unsustainable LOB%, and that luck has to run out at some point.

Without any strikeouts, his fantasy value is tied mainly to wins (he's on a good team and gets both run support and has a capable bullpen behind him) and ratios. Unlike E-Rod and Lodolo, who likely don't have much, if any, trade value, I think you could probably flip Martinez to another team for something worthwhile.

Sell another manager on his win upside and the "Rays can get the most out of anyone" angle. The reality is that Martinez is going to have more value in real life for the Rays than he will for fantasy managers and some regression is inevitable!

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

2026 Fantasy Stats: 101.2 IP, 4 W, 3.01 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 66 K

2026 Key Advanced Stats: 4.45 SIERA, 5.34 xERA, 16.5% K%, 7.8% SwStr%, 93.1% Z-Contact%, 83.2% LOB%

Current Yahoo! Rank: 215

Maybe you've picked up McGreevy off the wire based on his pretty strong month of June and two quality starts in July. That's all well and good, but (insert Admiral Ackbar meme here) it's a trap!

Michael McGreevy tonight:

6.1 IP
5 H
1 ER
1 BB
6 K

He has a 1.47 ERA in his last 3 starts 💪 pic.twitter.com/rDdMQOAY4u

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 9, 2026

We have been here before, folks. Even though he's pitching at a higher level than he ever has before, McGreevy is incredibly unlikely to keep this up. He doesn't miss bats as only Keider Montero and Seth Lugo have worse swinging strike rates, and he (like Martinez and E-Rod) is stranding a crazy high amount of runners (83.2%) for a pitcher who can't strike anyone out.

The same logic that we applied to Martinez also works here; his value is tied entirely to his ratios and his ability to eat innings. Nearly every major stat screams regression. I'd much rather take a shot on a pitcher with upside like Gage Jump at the same 33% rostership as McGreevy.

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