2023 NFL Futures: Tight End Prop Bets for David Njoku, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Darren Waller

August 12, 2023

Josh Wiesel points out some season-long Tight End prop bets to keep an eye on during the 2023 NFL season. David Njoku, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Darren Waller are all covered.

The 2023-24 NFL season is quickly approaching, which means it's time to look at some season-long prop bets. There are so many props with a ton of opportunity on a clean board before any of the real action starts. You can talk yourself into this player or that player and build a team of individuals to root for as the season progresses.

Tight ends tend to get undervalued and underappreciated in football. They are big bodies that can block while also playing a factor in the passing game. A consistent tight end can become an extremely reliable source for a quarterback and transform an offense.

The tight-end edition will wrap up my season-long position prop articles. If you enjoyed this, click here to check out my favorite WR prop futures. Click here to read my QB future props article, and click here for RB props. After the bets are laid, it's going to be time to enjoy the NFL season! Here we go!

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

UNDER 550.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)

I'm starting this article out with a bit of a random selection but it's something that caught my eye. Last season, David Njoku played 14 games and had 628 receiving yards with 58 catches. At first glance, this number seems completely low for a player that went over by 77 yards and even missed three games.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson was suspended for a majority of the 2022 season which placed Jacoby Brissett as the Browns QB. Brissett started 11 games last season. Njoku fared much better with Brissett than Watson and it's unclear how a full season will go. In five games with Watson, Njoku caught 17 of 28 targets for 164 yards and two touchdowns. In the nine games he played with Brissett, he caught 41 of 52 targets, accumulating 464 yards and another two touchdowns.

Just some basic math: If Njoku played all 17 games with Watson on the pace of those five games, he would've finished with 558 receiving yards in 17 games. It doesn't always work like that but it's just a projection and shows why this over/under number is correct.

Another huge aspect to factor is the Browns bringing in Houston Texans tight end Jordan Akins. Akins was with the Texans every year of Deshaun Watsons' career and very quietly had some nice seasons. Bringing in Atkins wasn't just a nothing move and he should factor into the passing game. Deshaun Watson also has three seasons where he played at least 15 games (2018-20). The most receiving yards a tight end had in a season was Jordan Akins with 418 in 16 games in 2019. I like the under here.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

OVER 6.5 receiving touchdowns (-102 FanDuel)

The 2022 season was a bit of a down year for Mark Andrews after a massive 2021 season. In 2021, Andrews played in 17 games and caught 107 receptions for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns. He also earned First-Team AP All-Pro honors. Last season, he racked up 73 receptions, 847 yards, and five touchdowns in 15 games.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will hopefully be back healthy this season. Jackson has played in 12 games each of the last two seasons which has forced backup Tyler Huntley to start in eight games. Andrews plays incredibly well with Jackson and in 11 games last season, he had 654 yards and all five of his touchdowns. In 2021, Andrews put up 853 yards and scored six of his nine touchdowns in the 12 games with Jackson. If Jackson is on the field, Andrews will be a major factor.

The six-foot-five tight end is a great red-zone target and there's no reason to think Baltimore won't continue to utilize that. Last season, inside the 20-yard line, he caught 11 of 18 targets for five touchdowns. Back in 2021, he caught 14 of 21 targets for nine touchdowns inside the 20.

Back in 2019, Andrews caught ten touchdowns in 15 games, and in 2020, he caught seven in 14 games. In both of those seasons, Jackson played 15 games. If he can get a healthy Jackson (who is also entering the season with a new contract and should be freed up), I love Andrews to get those touchdowns back up.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

OVER 675.5 receiving yards (-112 FanDuel)

Another weird FD/DK on this number for Kyle Pitts. On FanDuel, Pitts has an O/U of 675.5 with it being -112 on both sides. On DraftKings, Pitts sits at an O/U of 700.5 with the over being -120 and under +100. DraftKings is favoring Pitts to go over 700.5 at -120 and we can get it on FanDuel for a better price of -112 and 25 yards less at 675.5, seems like a no-brainer.

The fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft had a super quiet sophomore campaign with the Atlanta Falcons after a great rookie season. In his rookie year, he played 17 games and caught 68 passes for 1,026 yards. To follow that up, he only had 28 catches and 356 receiving yards in ten games in 2022. I am hopeful Pitts can start the year healthy and get off and running. Even after an injury-riddled second season, this number still seems kind of low after we saw what he can do given a full season.

There are concerns at quarterback with second-year pro-Desmond Ridder set to take over the helm. Those concerns could end up being just concerns if Ridder shows good ability to play QB in the NFL. Pitts and Ridder have never played in an NFL game together which actually could work in their favor with no tape on them. It's a fresh start with a new QB for the highest-ever drafted TE in NFL history.

Pitts also could turn into Ridders' number one receiving option and be a security blanket for him. Aside from stud wide receiver Drake London, Atlanta isn't too deep on the outside. Pitts should see a lot of targets and I would be surprised if he wasn't around that 110-120 number. Back in 2021, he was fifth among all tight ends in targets. That number feels right and it's a place he should be able to get back to. Look for Kyle Pitts to have a bounce-back year, he's too talented to be that quiet again.

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Darren Waller, New York Giants

OVER 625.5 receiving yards (-112 FanDuel)

Similar to Pitts, you can find differences between FD and DK pricing but this one is even more extreme. On FanDuel, Darren Waller has an O/U of 625.5 with -112 on both sides. If you look on DraftKings, Waller's O/U is 700.5 with the over being +100 and under at -120. That's a 75-yard difference between the two wildly popular sportsbooks. I already liked his over before seeing any numbers or odds and I like it even more now.

Waller joined a New York Giants team this offseason that is desperate for receiving. The Giants threw for 185.7 passing yards per game last season which was seventh lowest in the NFL. New York will rely a lot on Saquon Barkley again but bringing in Waller was a move to help take some heat off the star running back.

The last two seasons haven't been great for Waller health-wise. In 2022, he caught 28 passes for 388 yards in only nine games. In 2021, he hauled in 55 receptions for 665 yards in 11 games. When he's been able to play and stay on the field, he is a complete force. The 2019 and 2020 seasons saw him play 16 games and rack up 1,100+ receiving yard seasons. This is the version of Waller I'm hoping makes an appearance.

Waller appears to be healthy and in good spirits, acknowledging his role as a leader on this Giants team. Despite the low passing numbers, NY was able to put up 21.5 points per game last season which ranked 16th in the NFL. They were in the bottom six for passing touchdowns but top five for rushing touchdowns and I'm sure they'd love to find more of a balance.

It will be interesting to see what head coach Brian Daboll does with Daniel Jones in their second year together. Jones will be the key for us to hit this over because Waller simply can't get receiving yards without getting it thrown to him.

The Giants offense was a mess last season but tight end Daniel Bellinger finished fifth on the team in targets in 12 games. If you look back to the 2020 season when Jones played 14 games, former Giants tight end Evan Engram led the team by 13 in targets in 14 games. Barkley only played two games that season, but I expect Waller to see a lot of volume in the Giants' passing game this season. Can the soon-to-be 31-year-old find that same magic from those 2019 and 2020 seasons? I sure hope so.

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