NFL Future Betting Picks: Quarterback Prop Bets for Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Jared Goff

August 9, 2023

Josh Wiesel points out some season-long Quarterback prop bets to keep an eye on during the 2023 NFL season.

The 2023-24 NFL season is quickly approaching, which means, it's time to look at some season-long prop bets. There are so many props with so much opportunity on a clean board before any of the real action starts. You can talk yourself into this player or that player and really build a team of individuals to root for as the season progresses.

The quarterback, also referred to by many as the most important position in sports, is loaded with talent. Quarterbacks are typically the most recognizable players in all sports and everything on offense flows through them. Talent at the position is deep with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, etc. There was a lot to choose from but I was able to narrow it down and key in on some props I really liked.

In this article, I'll be going through some quarterback props I'm targeting this season. Click here to check out my favorite WR prop futures that I posted earlier this week.

Justin Herbert

Most Regular Season Passing Touchdowns (+550 FanDuel)

It was hard to not choose Patrick Mahomes for this who comes in at +300. Looking for a little more value, I like Herbert at this number and more than Josh Allen at +500.

Justin Herbert did not have a great 2022 season when it came to touchdown passes. In his rookie year, he threw 31 in 15 games and followed that up with 38 in 2021 in 17 games. His 38 in 2021 was third among quarterbacks, trailing only Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. Last season, he played in 17 games but only threw 25 TD passes.

I'm willing to give the soon-to-be fourth-year pro a pass on last season. Herbert dealt with multiple injuries during the 2022 season which affected him. Keenan Allen (10 games played) and Mike Williams (13 games played) also missed some time and left their QB without important weapons. If both can play and are healthy, that will add to the touchdown total. A new WR will also be joining the mix as the Chargers drafted Quentin Johnston with the 21st overall pick in the 2023 draft. The talented former TCU Horned Frog should help create one of the best-receiving trios in the NFL.

Austin Ekeler will once again be in the backfield for the Chargers. Ekeler caught five touchdown passes last season but in 2021 he caught eight, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back around that number. In 2021, Ekeler caught 13 of 15 red zone targets inside the 20 for seven receiving touchdowns. Last season, he caught 18 of 25 inside the 20 for five touchdowns. I would expect Ekeler to continue to get heavily targeted in the red zone which is good news for Herbert and our bet.

Tight end Gerald Everett returns back to LA off a season that saw him catch 55 passes and four touchdowns. Last season was Everett's first with the Chargers and he should look more comfortable in year two. The last person to note is wide receiver, Josh Palmer. Palmer caught 72 passes for 769 yards and three touchdowns last season in 16 games. He adds to the incredibly competitive wide receiver pool of Allen, Williams, and Johnston.

I'm looking for Herbert to have a massive bounce-back year now that he should be healthy. The Chargers' offensive talent is far too good to finish 13th in points per game again.

You could also add that the Chargers are entering the season off an embarrassing playoff loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars where they blew a 27-point lead. Herbert and co. should be even more motivated going into this season to shake that stink off.

Derek Carr

Over 3,625.5 passing yards (-112 FanDuel)

If you read my wide receiver prop article, one of the players I was high on was New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave. Olave is coming off a great rookie season where he finished with 72 receptions and 1,042 receiving yards. This also came with some scattered quarterback play and the Saints' offense was a mess last season.

Enter Derek Carr. Carr will be playing for a new franchise for the first time in his career after spending nine seasons with the Raiders. The Raiders came into the 2022 season with a lot of expectations and failed to deliver, finishing with a 6-11 record. Things got weird towards the end of the season when Carr got benched and then stepped away from the team. His time with the Raiders was finished and he was going to be looking for a new home.

The 31-year-old quarterback finished the 2022 season with 3,522 passing yards in 15 games. He was benched for the final two games and fell short of 4,000 passing yards for the first time in four seasons. With an average of 234.8 passing yards per game in 2022, if Carr played the final two games and hit this exact average, he would've finished with 3,992 passing yards. There were also four instances where he failed to throw for at least 200+ yards last season, something that only happened twice in 2021.

Now, I get it, Derek Carr is in a new situation on a new team for the first time in his career.

Saints tight end Jimmy Graham did have some favorable words for his new QB:

Of course, Graham is gassing his new teammate up, but I agree with him, I love Carr in this system. He'll be throwing to Olave, who is poised for a breakout sophomore campaign. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is also reported to almost be back to 100 percent. Thomas has been riddled with injuries since the 2020 season but we've all seen what he can do when he can stay on the field. The third wide receiver of this group will be Rashid Shaheed who caught 28 passes for 488 yards and an impressive 17.4 yards per catch average. Shaheed can be a nice deep threat and had catches of 68, 58, 53, 40, 35, and 30 last season.

Running back Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season. Once he's back, it's safe to assume he will factor into the passing game. He's had at least 439 receiving yards in every season of his career. Tight end Juwan Johnson had a super solid 508 receiving yards last season and this bet would love to see him repeat that.

Remove last year and Carr has gone over this number in six of the last seven seasons.

Geno Smith

Under 3,800.5 passing yards (-108 FanDuel)

I, as did everyone, loved the Geno Smith resurgent season in 2022. Known as a good guy and a great leader, it was compelling to see Smith seemingly come out of nowhere and turn into a pro bowl quarterback. He played all 17 games and threw for 4,282 yards and even led the NFL in completion percentage at 69.8 percent.

Again, awesome season, but I'm willing to take my chances on him proving it again. He finished eight in passing yards and was one of nine quarterbacks to throw for 4,000+ yards.

Pro Football Network also has the Seahawks' offensive line ranked an unimpressive 19th going into the 2023 season. Geno was sacked 46 times last season, tied for third worst among starting quarterbacks. If the pockets close in quickly again this season, he'll once again need some luck completing passes. You can't bank on completing 70 percent of your passes every season, it's unsustainable. Smith also only threw 64 'poor' passes according to Fantasypros, which was a lot less than his peers. I'd think that number goes up for someone who hasn't exactly shown a model of consistency in his career. His receivers only dropped 19 passes last season which was the lowest among the top 15 quarterbacks in passing yards. Genos' 7.5 yards per attempt was also near the top of the QB list.

We'll keep chugging along here with more stats:

He was the fourth-most blitzed quarterback and was able to not let that affect him as seen by his completion percentage and other passing stats. If this repeats itself, I see this season going differently and him not being as fortunate. Defenses also now have a full year of tape of Geno Smith in this Seattle offense.

The last stat I'll leave you with is, he was fourth in the NFL in air yards. I know Geno has a good arm but he's going to have to prove to everyone he can do it two seasons in a row.

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Jared Goff

Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (-126 FanDuel)

Unlike Geno Smith, I like Detriot Lions quarterback Jared Goff to have the same success he did last season. Goff threw for 29 touchdowns in 2022 which was his most since 2018. It was his best pro season since that 2018 year and the 28-year-old looked really good in his second season with Detroit.

His favorite target Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for his third year with the Lions and caught six touchdowns last season. Many expect Brown to make a leap and that could come with an increase of touchdowns. After spending five years with Detroit and then two with Jacksonville, Marvin Jones Jr. is back with the Lions. Jones enjoyed the best ball of his career in Detroit and will look to re-create some of that magic. He scored 37 touchdowns in his five seasons.

Jameson Williams, the 12th pick in the 2022 draft will be suspended for the first six games of the 2023 season. He was plagued by injuries during his rookie season and only appeared in six games. Once he eventually returns, Detroit will look to insert their highly touted WR into the thick of things. Josh Reynolds will hold it down as the likely third wide receiver until Jameson Williams makes his return. Reynolds had a very solid 38 receptions, 479 yards, and three touchdowns last season in 2022.

Goff threw 29 touchdowns last season despite running back Jamaal Williams leading the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns. Williams is now a member of the New Orleans Saints. Out goes Williams and in comes 12th overall pick, Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs unlike Williams, is a pass-catching threat from the backfield. He caught 44 passes for 444 yards and three touchdowns at Alabama last season.

Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta was drafted 34th overall in the 2023 draft and will be another weapon added for Goff.

This 24.5 number is very fair and I'll roll with Goff and this Lions offense to play well in the upcoming season.

Hopefully, Goff can continue to convert red zone opportunities like he did last season:

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