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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Divisional round of the 2025-2026 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts to avoid in Divisional fantasy football lineups.
Defense wins championships.
Some of the league's best defensive units are still alive in the playoffs, creating tough matchups for our favorite DFS options.
Below, we sort through the stats and find five fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for the Divisional round of the 2025-2026 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Brock Purdy (QB, SF) at Seattle
The feeling-out process in this matchup won't last long. This is the third meeting between these NFC West divisional foes.
Who has the best defense in football? It's a close call between Seattle and Houston, and that doesn't bode well for Brock Purdy. Not only do we have two games of data and film to look at here, but the most recent matchup came just two weeks ago. In that game, at home, Purdy mustered 127 passing yards and led his offense to three points. His 21 rushing yards led to 6.2 fantasy points.
Purdy's Week 18 fantasy total was a trend, not an anomaly. Matthew Stafford is the only quarterback in the last six that Seattle has faced to exceed double-digit fantasy points.
Purdy will also be without one of his top targets and safety blanket, tight end George Kittle, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury against the Eagles. The 49ers continue to lack threats down the field, even if Ricky Pearsall (knee) returns to the lineup this weekend.
Woody Marks (RB, HOU) at New England
Give Woody Marks credit. A career-high mark in rushing yards (by a wide margin) in his first playoff game, against a solid defense, certainly wasn't expected.
Woody is making his Marks on this game!
HOUvsPIT on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/BObkgflHtV— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2026
Unfortunately, his road to glory gets tougher. The Patriots, compared to the Chargers, did allow slightly more fantasy points to running backs this season. However, that's because New England gave up 25 more receptions to the position. Despite his initial profile, Marks hasn't been an active participant in the passing game, catching 24 total balls and no more than two in any game since Week 8. Can't bank on that.
New England had the better pure run defense, especially when defensive tackle Milton Williams was in the lineup. Last week, I noted how all opponents racked up 100 yards or more on the ground in the five games Williams missed. It happened three times in the 12 games Williams played.
That trend continued on Wild Card Weekend when the Chargers ran for 87 yards, 57 of which came from quarterback Justin Herbert. The running backs, Kimani Vidal and Omarion Hampton (in his one carry), totaled 30 yards. The Chargers' offensive line has been brutally bad all season, but the Texans aren't much better. According to ESPN's metrics, Houston had the worst run block win rate among all teams this year.
The Texans will likely also be without Nico Collins (concussion), allowing New England to cheat forward a bit.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB, NE) vs. Houston
Rhamondre Stevenson is playing some of the best football of his career and is outplaying TreVeyon Henderson once again.
That's not something we like to say or hear. Henderson is the more explosive runner of the New England backfield, and he's younger, so he's the running back the fantasy community loves more. But Stevenson is breaking off huge chunk plays over the last few weeks.
OK DRE GET MOVING @dreeday32
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/plM9SBFmDe
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 4, 2026
As long as Stevenson is making plays like that, Henderson will struggle to crack double-digit opportunities. The rookie had 10 against the Chargers. He hasn't been a "win with volume" guy, but we'll always take more chances for him to break one.
Even so, explosive runs aren't easy to come by against one of the league's stingiest defenses. The Texans allowed the fourth-fewest yards to running backs per game this season. The Pittsburgh duo, who both averaged 13 PPR points per game this season, combined for 14.3 last weekend.
Stefon Diggs (WR, NE) vs. Houston
Let's triple-dip this AFC matchup. It is, after all, projected for the fewest points (40.5) of the slate. All of the other three games have an over/under of at least 45 points.
As good as Houston is against the run, they're even better at slowing down passing games. They finished the regular season as the third-best fantasy defense against wide receivers. With Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter roaming the perimeters, the Texans don't have to shadow the opposing team's number one. Both cornerbacks can do the job. While comparing the Pittsburgh and New England passing games isn't exactly fair, it is worth noting that D.K. Metcalf only caught two passes.
Although he's never profiled as such, Stefon Diggs has moved into the boom/bust category at this stage of his career. He has five 100-yard games this season, but eight below 35 yards, including last weekend's win over the Chargers. Two of his best games were against the Jets, and do those really count?
Evan Engram (TE, DEN) vs. Buffalo
With eight teams remaining, the tight end options are limited. Do yourself a favor and steer clear of Evan Engram.
The Buffalo defense against tight ends has consistently been the worst matchup this season. The Bills surrendered 46 receptions to the position during the regular season. Toss in the measly two (for nine yards) that Brenton Strange gathered last weekend, for a grand total of 48. That's still 19 fewer than the next best team, the Philadelphia Eagles. They also topped the list for fewest yards, and unsurprisingly, they allowed the fewest fantasy points.
Buffalo's biggest defensive weakness is in the run game, something the Jaguars probably should have exploited a little bit more during their Wild Card matchup. Denver head coach Sean Payton won't make that mistake, unless the Bills jump out to a big lead. Against the Denver defense, on the road, that doesn't seem likely.
How many opportunities does all of that leave Engram? Not many. It's not like he was heavily utilized before, as the Broncos spread the ball as well as any offense this year.
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