Week 8 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

November 3, 2020

Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Jordan Wilkins, Marvin Hall, D'Andre Swift and more.

Windy conditions impacted several games this week, and as a result only Patrick Mahomes eclipsed 30 fantasy points as teams seemingly relied more on the run given the weather. In Week 8 only seven quarterbacks cracked 20 points, so scoring was down in general. At tight end Travis Kelce was one of only two tight ends with double-digit targets and finished Week 8 as the leader with 24.9 points. It's also worth noting that T.J. Hockenson finished as a top-five option for the second week in a row.

After an underwhelming performance in Week 7, DK Metcalf bounced back in a big way and finished Week 8 as the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football, hauling in 12 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Davante Adams, Robert Woods, Corey Davis and Tyreek Hill rounded out the top-five. Corey Davis finishing with 26.8 fantasy points may have surprised some, but he had a great matchup against LeShaun Sims who has been struggling all year in the Bengals secondary.

The fact that Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara finished as the top-two running backs on the week isn't surprising, but Cook's four touchdowns in route to a 48.6-point performance was. Cook touched the ball a whopping 32 times, and took several long plays for scores. Giovani Bernard filled in quite well for Joe Mixon again, finishing as the RB-3 on the week, while DeeJay Dallas and Nyheim Hines rounded out the top-five. Now that Week 8 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Week 8 Stats: 11-of-18 passing, 154 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 10 carries, 23 yards, 1 TD

The Patriots always play Josh Allen tough but Week 8 was a different animal because of the windy conditions in Buffalo. The Bills threw the ball just 18 times, opting the run the ball 38 times on their way to a victory over the Patriots.

Bottom Line: Watch your waiver wires, because if somebody drops Josh Allen this week you need to snag him. The Bills face off against the Seahawks in Week 9 which is a matchup that Allen can easily exploit. The Seahawks are currently surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers

Week 8 Stats: 3 carries, 23 yards, 1 TD, 5 targets, 4 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD

The Falcons Defense has been extremely giving to opposing wide receivers so far this season, giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. While that proved to be true in Week 8, fantasy managers were likely frustrated because it was Curtis Samuel that came through and not D.J. Moore or Robby Anderson.

Bottom Line: Curtis Samuel has seen some extra work in the running game with Christian McCaffrey on the shelf. McCaffrey should return to the lineup for the Panthers in Week 9 which will likely mean less carries and pass targets for Samuel. Try to shop Samuel in trades in deeper leagues, he is droppable in shallower leagues.

Marvin Hall, Detroit Lions

Week 8 Stats: 7 targets, 4 catches, 113 yards

In Week 8 Kenny Golladay went down after playing just 18 snaps. Marvin Hall stepped in and played 68.9% of the Lions offensive snaps, compared to the 19.4% and 22.1% that he played the previous two weeks.

Bottom Line: After Kenny Golladay went down, the Lions went with Marvin Jones, Marvin Hall and Danny Amendola when they were in 11-personnel. It looks like Golladay will miss at least one week with his hip injury, which means Marvin Hall is worth consideration on your waiver wire, but only as a short-term option.

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots

Week 8 Stats: 10 targets, 6 catches, 58 yards

The Patriots passing game is an absolute mess, but Cam Newton has to throw the ball to somebody. In Week 8, with Julian Edelman out of the lineup, Jakobi Meyers led the team with 10 targets, compared to four for Damiere Byrd and just one for Isaiah Zuber.

Bottom Line: If you're in an extremely deep league or desperate for a wide receiver in a PPR league, Jakobi Meyers is worth a shot because he will see volume, but he offers very little upside given the state of the Patriots offense.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns

Week 8 Stats: 11 targets, 4 catches, 52 yards

After Odell Beckham Jr. went down for the season in Week 7, you had to assume that Jarvis Landry would step up in his absence. While Landry did see 11 targets, Baker Mayfield was inaccurate in windy conditions. While Landry came up small, he did have a 19-yard touchdown overturned which would have doubled his point total.

Bottom Line: It's easy to point the finger at Baker Mayfield's accuracy, but in reality, you really need to chalk this poor game up to the wind. Landry should be fine moving forward and you should consider him a prime buy-low guy in trades.

DeeJay Dallas, Seattle Seahawks

Week 8 Stats: 18 carries, 41 yards, 1 TD, 5 targets, 5 catches, 17 yards, 1 TD

With Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde both out of the lineup for the Seahawks in Week 8, DeeJay Dallas took over the backfield and played 79.4% of the offensive snaps.

Bottom Line: DeeJay Dallas will likely return to his spot on the depth chart once Chris Carson and/or Carlos Hyde are healthy enough to play, so you should try to package Dallas to the manager with Chris Carson on their roster.

Jordan Wilkins, Indianapolis Colts

Week 8 Stats: 20 carries, 89 yards, 1 TD, 1 target, 1 catch, 24 yards, 1-2PT

In Week 8, Jonathan Taylor played a season-low 33.8% of the Colts offensive snaps, compared to 50.6% for Jordan Wilkins and 20.8% for Nyheim Hines.

Bottom Line: Monitor Jonathan Taylor's situation throughout the week. Taylor appears to be dealing with an ankle injury, so if he misses any time Jordan Wilkins will likely be a No. 1 waiver pickup ahead of Week 9.

Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills

Week 8 Stats: 14 carries, 81 yards, 2 TD, 1 target

The Bills and Patriots played in miserable conditions in Week 8 and the Bills ran the ball twice as much as they threw it. Zack Moss played a season-high 53.4% of the snaps on Sunday compared to Devin Singletary who played a season-low 48.3% of the snaps.

Bottom Line: Moss and Singletary each had 14 carries and one target in the passing game in Week 8, but Moss was much more effective, scoring twice. Zack Moss has officially surpassed Devin Singletary in the Bills backfield, and the gap may grow as the weather deteriorates later in the year.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Week 8 Stats: 8 carries, 26 yards, 7 targets, 6 catches, 21 yards

Melvin Gordon played a season-low 55.4% of the offensive snaps this week as the Broncos found themselves down by three scores and needed to throw a lot. It seemed like Gordon disappeared in Week 8, but he actually out-snapped Phillip Lindsay who played just 44.6% of the snaps and had seven more touches than Lindsay.

Bottom Line: This game got out of hand very early and the Broncos went with a pass-heavy approach which limited Gordon's work on the ground. Hold steady if Gordon is on your team, and consider him as a buy-low guy in trades.

D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Week 8 Stats: 6 carries, 1 yard, 4 targets, 3 catches, 22 yards

D'Andre Swift may have underwhelmed in Week 8 but he did play a season-high 62.5% of the Lions offensive snaps. The Lions had trouble running on the stingy Colts Defense and had to throw the ball 42 times which was a season-high for Matthew Stafford.

Bottom Line: Swift will be just fine, he's still trending upwards, he simply had a bad matchup and didn't do much in the passing game. Swift is a prime buy-low candidate in trades.

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