October 8, 2016

Ben Ruppert's Week 5 fantasy football matchups analysis (part 1) for the 2016 NFL season. Starts and sits for fantasy football lineups based on matchups.

What's up RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Week 5 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the first half of the Week 5 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

Week 4 Recap

Greatest Hits: Jordan Reed (TE, WAS), Mark Ingram (RB, NO), Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)

Jordan Reed had his first breakout game of 2016 last week, catching nine passes for 73 yards and his first two TDs this season. As long as he’s healthy, Reed will dominate in that offense. Mark Ingram had his first big receiving day of the season, hauling in six passes for 49 yards, while rushing 18 times for 56 yards and a score. Ingram is very talented, but health is always an issue. Play him while he’s healthy. Zeke followed up his amazing Week 3 with an almost as stellar Week 4, rushing for 138 yards and a TD. Zeke is really settling into his own in that offense, and should be a top-five back moving forward.

Greatest Misses: Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE), Matt Jones (RB, WAS), John Brown (WR, ARI)

Gronk had dominated the Bills in his career, then went out and put up a one-catch performance. News is coming out of his hamstring still bothering him, which may explain the continued ineffectiveness. I thought both Matt Jones and John Brown would struggle this week, but both came out and made me look foolish in a big way. Jones ran for 117 yards on 22 carries with a score, while Brown caught 10 passes for 144 yards. Brown has a chance to have another solid performance against the 49ers this week, but Jones will have a tougher time against the Ravens defense.

Matchup Analysis for NFL Week 5

Redskins @ Ravens- Sunday 10/9 @1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Steve Smith Sr. (WR, BAL)

Steve Smith Sr. is coming off his best week of the season, catching 8-of-11 targets for 111 yards, including a 52-yard TD in the third quarter. Smith looked better in this game than he had all season, running like he was 10 years younger. This week he is up against a Redskins secondary led by Josh Norman. Fortunately for Smith, Norman usually plays the right side of the field on the outside and Smith gets moved around all over the field, so he will not be shadowed by the top corner. Smith should get a lot of targets in this one, leading to another solid game.

Jordan Reed (TE, WAS)

The Ravens have been stingy against TEs this season, allowing the sixth least points to the position in 2016. However, they have not yet faced a TE like Reed yet. At 6’2” 243 lbs., Reed creates huge mismatch problems for opposing defenses. He is coming off of his finest game of the year, catching nine passes for 73 yards and two TDs. Something is going to have to give, and I’ll put my money on Reed having another solid outing in Week 5 over him being shut down by the Ravens.

Matchups We Hate:

Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS)

Baltimore is in the top-10 in the league at defending the QB position in terms of fantasy points. They have shut down the likes of Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor, and held Derek Carr to under 200 yards passing in Week 4 (albeit with four passing TDs). Cousins has seen his passing yardage drop every week since Week 2, and will face his toughest challenge this week on the road in Baltimore. I don’t like this matchup for him, I would avoid if possible.

Matt Jones (RB, WAS)

Matt Jones finally had his big breakout week in Week 4, rushing for 117 yards on 22 carries, including a TD (his second of the season). This week he will have a much tougher task against the Ravens, who have allowed the third fewest points to the RB position thus far. Before last week’s surge, Jones was only averaging 12 rushes for 50 yards per game. While his carries have been rising each week of the season, I don’t see him eclipsing the 22 carries he saw last week very often. This will be a down game for Jones.

Notable Players:

Terrance West (RB, BAL)

Terrance West draws a favorable matchup with a Redskins defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to the RB position so far this season. West was let loose last week with the release of Justin Forsett, and responded by rushing 21 times for 113 yards and a score. The only thing working against West now, is that the Ravens would like to get rookie RB Kenneth Dixon involved in the running game also this week. Dixon was the most effective back in the preseason before he was injured. While it seems to be only a matter of time until Dixon takes over, West should still be effective this week running the ball.

Mike Wallace (WR, BAL)

Mike Wallace has developed into the primary outside threat for the Ravens and Joe Flacco. Wallace has been hit for long gains numerous times this season already, and should have a good season in purple. This week however, he may get some coverage from Josh Norman, who normally covers the outside receiver. It all depends on where Wallace lines up on the field, but it is likely Norman will be on Wallace for different chunks of the game. If you take the deep ball away from Wallace, you won’t be left with much. However, he only needs to break one to be worth a flex play at least.

Patriots @ Browns- Sunday 10/9 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Tom Brady (QB, NE)

Tom Brady makes his much anticipated 2016 debut on Sunday against the Browns, after being suspended for four games due to deflate gate. Brady will surely come back with a vengeance after sitting on the sidelines, and especially after watching his team get shut out at home for the first time since 1993. Fire up Brady in all formats immediately. Brady is one of the all-time greats and should show no ill-effects of missing four weeks of action.

Julian Edelman (WR, NE)

The biggest benefactor of Brady’s return is Julian Edelman. Edelman has proven to be Brady’s favorite target over the past few seasons, and with Rob Gronkowski not 100% Brady will look to Edelman even more. He is a PPR monster, and should see his numbers across the board rise immediately. Over the past 16 games with Brady at the helm, Edelman has caught 119 of 176 targets for 1,355 yards, and 10 TDs. Edelman becomes a WR1 in fantasy leagues with Brady’s return. Start him with confidence from this point onwards.

Terrelle Pryor (WR, CLE)

Cleveland will need to throw to keep up with the Patriots. Brady is going to have a dominant game, and the Browns will be left playing catchup early on. Terrelle Pryor stands to gain the most from this as the team’s number one WR. Pryor is an amazing athlete that can do anything: run any route, catch any pass near him, and even throw a couple passes here and there. The Patriots have been solid against opposing WRs this season, but Pryor is a different animal. I would be leaving him in your lineups this week waiting for those garbage time points to roll in.

Matchups We Hate:

Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE)

Isaiah Crowell has been surprisingly effective this season, rushing for an average 98 yards and 15 carries per game (6.5 YPC) with three TDs. This week, he runs into the New England Patriots with their starting QB back at the helm. Crowell doesn’t do the bulk of the pass catching in this offense, that role belongs to Duke Johnson, who is a fantastic pass-catching RB. If this game gets out of hand early, we could see a heavy dose of the passing game. The Browns abandoning the run early means very limited chances for Crowell to shine. Based on the amount of opportunities I think he will get this week, I would sit Crowell if you have another option.

Notable Players:

Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)

Rob Gronkowski has been active and on the field over the past two weeks, but only has one catch to show for it. With Tom Brady back one would think Gronk would instantly be an every week starter like he always has been. However, reports are surfacing of Gronk’s hamstring injury becoming more of an issue than he has led on, limiting his effectiveness. It is unknown how bad the injury really is, but it means that Martellus Bennett will be a solid play this week once again. I would sit Gronk until we know more about his injury and how much it will limit him.

Chris Hogan (WR, NE)

Is this the week Hogan finally breaks out? Hogan has been on the field more than any other Patriots WR through the first four weeks, topping out last week when he was on the field for 93% of the snaps. Due to QB play, he somehow managed to be on the field that long and not come down with a single pass on his two targets. Now with Brady back, mixed with how much he is on the field, this could be the week we see Hogan break out. He could also continue doing little while Brady looks for Edelman and Amendola. It remains to be seen how Brady affects the offense as a whole.

Duke Johnson (RB, CLE)

Duke Johnson may see a heavy dose of action in this one with the Patriots expected to blow out the Browns. If the Pats get up early, look for Johnson to get plenty of work on passing downs as the Browns play catch-up. This season Johnson has averaged five receptions per game, while adding an additional six rushing attempts. Johnson makes for a sneaky play in PPR formats this week.

Eagles @ Lions- Sunday 10/9 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)

Carson Wentz has been a big surprise for the Eagles this season with how well he has been playing. His last performance in Week 3 was his best; he threw for 301 yards with two TDs. He has yet to throw an interception this season. This week he draws the Lions, who have been abysmal against opposing QBs. They have allowed the second most fantasy points to the position this season, only behind the Falcons. If you’re using Wentz to fill in for Brees or Wilson this week, fire him up with confidence.

Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI)

Jordan Matthews has done well operating as Wentz’s number one target. Through three games, Matthews has 204 receiving yards and two TDs. Week 3 was his worst fantasy week, due to the fact the Eagles got up in the game so early they didn’t need to pass much. Matthews was legit in Weeks 1 and 2 when Wentz needed to make throws, which he will need to do again in this one. Matthews is a WR2 with big upside this week. Now that the bye week is out of the way, he can be started every week here on out.

Matchups We Hate:

Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI)

Ryan Mathews is a full participant in practice this week, and should be good to go for this weeks game against the Lions. Wendell Smallwood carried the bulk of the load last week and performed admirably, rushing 17 times for 79 yards and a TD. Head coach Doug Pederson said that if Mathews is healthy he will remain the starting RB which is good, but I expect Smallwood and Darren Sproles to get plenty of touches also. Mathews may be starting, but the amount of touches he will cede to other backs coupled with the Lions rushing defense (fifth fewest points to fantasy RBs allowed) makes Mathews a risky play this week coming off of injury.

Theo Riddick (RB, DET)

Riddick is an excellent pass-catching RB in the Lions offense. He is averaging five catches per game, and has even chipped in with 10 rushing attempts per game. However, outside of Week 1 Riddick has had a hard time being efficient. From Week 2 onwards, Riddick has only averaged 2.4 YPC, and only 31 yards on five receptions per game. In PPR formats Riddick is still an OK play, but those in standard leagues will be stuck wishing for a TD to save his day. Look for other options at RB.

Notable Players:

Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)

The Eagles have made things extremely difficult for opposing QBs in 2016. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position, holding opposing QBs to 227 yards passing and an INT per game. They have yet to allow a passing TD. However, two of those three games came against Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler, and the other game was against Ben Roethlisberger at home (Big Ben is much worse on the road than at home). Facing Matt Stafford in Detroit will be the biggest test this defense has faced.

Marvin Jones (WR, DET)

Marvin Jones’ success in this game is tied to the QB play of Matt Stafford. If he is limited like the Eagles have been able to do to other QBs they have faced, this could be the worst game we see from this duo. However, if Stafford can break the mold and have a solid game Jones could be in line for a big game. It remains to be seen how the Lions will handle Golden Tate after being benched last week, but it will only benefit Jones if Tate sits for any length of time.

Bears @ Colts- Sunday 10/9 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)

T.Y. Hilton is the focal point of the passing offense with Done Moncrief set to miss several weeks. Last week Hilton did well catching seven passes for 42 yards and a TD on a day when the offense struggled to get a whole lot done until very late. QB Andrew Luck loves to air the ball out, so expect Hilton to have some big games ahead, possibly starting this week against these Bears.

Eddie Royal (WR, CHI)

Kevin White was dealt some bad news this week; he suffered a fractured fibula in Week 4 and has been placed on IR. Hopefully he recovers fully and goes on to enjoy a great career. For Week 5, it means that Eddie Royal will see an expanded role while coming off of his best game of the season. Royal caught all seven of his targets for 111 yards and a TD. White led the team with nine targets last week, meaning between Royal, Alshon Jeffery, and Zach Miller, there will be more work to go around this week. Seeing how Hoyer hit Royal early and often leads me to believe he will benefit the most.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI)

Jordan Howard was given the starting role after Jeremy Langford went down with an injury. Howard looked better last week than Langford had all season, rushing 23 times for 111 yards, and chipping in with three receptions for 21 yards. All of that production was against the Lions last week, who have a respectable rushing defense. This week the Bears draw the Colts, who’s defense has been abysmal this season. They have allowed the fourth most points to RBs this season. Howard is in line for a full load of work again this week with Langford still out, so expect a solid game once again.

Matchups We Hate:

Alshon Jeffery (WR, CHI)

Alshon Jeffery also gets a boost while Kevin White is out, but how much of one remains to be seen. Jeffery has been underwhelming with Hoyer at QB, averaging only four catches for 58 yards with no scores over the past two weeks. He has been out-produced by White and Royal recently while Hoyer runs a more conservative game than Jay Cutler does. The loss of White means more targets to go around for the primary options, but unless that extra target or two leads to a deep completion we may not see any change in Jeffery’s game until Cutler returns. With Vontae Davis in coverage, Hoyer may not look his way much more than usual. Jeffery is a risky play this week.

Notable Players:

Andrew Luck (QB, IND)

Andrew Luck was a king in garbage time last week. Heading into the fourth quarter against the Jaguars in London, Luck was held to less than 200 yards passing with no TDs and an INT. He almost led his team to victory after the Colts scored 21 points in the fourth with a rushing TD from Gore, then two passing TDs by Luck including a 64-yard bomb to Philip Dorsett. Bad offensive line play, mixed with a bevy of drops by his receivers kept Luck down last week, and while this is a great matchup for him he will still have those same troubles week to week. Start him if you own him, but be wary of the issues he faces with his own team.

Frank Gore (RB, IND)

Gore has been a solid fantasy contributor on offense so far this season. He has turned things up over the past two weeks against the Jaguars and Chargers, averaging 18 rushes for 75 yards rushing and a TD each week. The Bears have been OK at stopping the run this season, so expect more of the same Gore this week. Just a solid RB2 play, nothing that will blow you away, just consistency while hoping for the added TD.

Zach Miller (TE, CHI)

Zach Miller was unable to take advantage of a great opportunity last week against the Lions, catching only three passes for 31 yards with a short TD saving his fantasy day. The Colts have been in the middle of the pack when it comes to covering TEs this season. Miller should be able to produce modest fantasy numbers with White now out of the picture, with the chance of a TD. If you’re looking for someone to fill a bye week void Miller is a great option. A word of caution: he was listed as questionable on Wednesday with an apparent rib injury, so monitor his status closely before starting him.

Texans @ Vikings- Sunday 10/9 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Lamar Miller (RB, HOU)

THIS IS THE WEEK. This is the week Lamar Miller will find the end zone, calling it out now. Miller has so far given us consistent RB play this season, which has been OK as long as you’ve been winning some games. However, we are all anxiously awaiting a big game from Miller, which starts with him finding the endzone. Miller has had more touches through the first four weeks without a TD than anyone in modern NFL history at 106. That's right - 106 touches, no TD. That’s ridiculous. I'm calling it now - Miller will find the promised land this week and break the streak.

Will Fuller (WR, HOU)

Will Fuller has been the most dangerous weapon in the Texans offense so far this season, more so than DeAndre Hopkins. No one will question who is the more talented player, but Fuller has been the man this season. He has used his elite speed to take the top off of opposing defenses, and QB Brock Osweiler has a big arm which plays right to his strengths. Fuller has received a good number of targets through the first four weeks, averaging eight per game. The Vikings have been good against opposing WRs this season, but Fuller is always a threat to rip off a big gain.

Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN)

McKinnon looked excellent running the ball on Monday night against the Giants, rushing 18 times for 85 yards and a TD, adding three catches for 10 yards. Matt Asiata vultured a TD, but the rushing offense was dominated by McKinnon who was clearly the better runner. The Texans have an OK run defense, and will be without J.J. Watt. McKinnon will be able to find running lanes in this one, and will chip in with a few receptions. Asiata will still be around to steal his goal line carries, but after last week McKinnon is more than deserving of a spot in your lineups.

Matchups We Hate:

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU)

The Vikings have done a great job limiting opposing WR1s over the past two weeks. In Week 3, Kelvin Benjamin was held to zero catches, and last week O’Dell Beckham Jr. was limited to three catches for 23 yards. While Hopkins will certainly be more level headed than Beckham was, it will still be tough to find space against the stingy Vikings defense. If Hopkins is covered well, Osweiler has other options he will be able to throw to. Hopkins is a risky play this week against the top defensive unit in football.

Notable Players:

Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN)

After two weeks where Diggs totally dominated, we’ve seen two weeks where he has only been average. After two straight 100 yard performances to open the year, Diggs has averaged 4.5 receptions for 43.5 yards in the past two games. You should still start Diggs as the top WR on the roster, but keep expectations in check since he will be covered by Johnathan Joseph, who is still a legit CB in this league. A big game for Diggs will be coming soon given how talented he is, but it will not be this week.

Bills @ Rams- Sunday 10/9 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)

As the only truly dominant member of this offense, Shady is an every week start if you own him. The Patriots were focused on stopping the run last week, and he was still able to rush for 70 yards on 19 carries. He also caught six passes for 38 yards and a TD. The Bills will do everything they can to get McCoy at least 20 touches per game, especially with Sammy Watkins out. This offense needs to get the ball to its best playmakers to have a chance against the 3-1 Rams.

Matchups We Hate:

Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF)

The Rams have had one of the best defenses in the league this year, let by defensive tackle Aaron Donald. After their Week 1 debacle, they were able to limit Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer, while doing just enough to overtake Jameis Winston and and Bucs. Tyrod doesn’t put up big passing stats like Winston does; he will do most of his damage with his legs and on one or two long bombs (although we didn’t see much of this last week). Taylor looked OK without Watkins last week, but with the increased pressure he will see this week against a more formidable front seven he may have troubles. I would avoid him this week if possible.

Todd Gurley (RB, LA)

Gurley has had a slow start to his 2016 season. So far he has only averaged 2.6 YPC and his only good fantasy day was made possible by multiple TDs, something that will not happen every week. The Bills welcome back All-Pro defensive lineman Marcell Dareus back to their line, meaning Gurley will not have things easy again this week. The Bills were able to stop LeGarrette Blount last week, something no team had been able to do yet. On paper this matchup may look good, but don’t be fooled. Expect low numbers from Gurley this week.

Notable Players:

Robert Woods (WR, BUF)

Woods remains the top option at WR for the Bills this week. He should see a fair number of targets, and have modest numbers in this game. Taylor is capable of spreading the ball around (completed passes to eight different receivers last week), so don’t expect a huge game from Woods any week. However, if you’re looking for a bye week fill-in player, Woods is perfect. He won’t kill you, and has the chance at a TD if the Bills reach the red zone.

Tavon Austin (WR, LA)

Tavon Austin leads the team in targets at 35, averaging nearly nine per game. For Austin, all that’s missing now is the production. The targets are great, but Austin has been inconsistent; he caught only two passes for 14 yards last week, and the week before he caught five passes for 82 yards and a score. Austin, and anyone in this passing offense, is a big roll of the dice to play on Sunday.