Week 2 was pretty painful, not going to lie. We saw a lot of injuries rack up, and the game with the biggest projected point total (NO/NYG) fell flat on its face. Naturally I leaned heavily on that last week, I should’ve known better than to rely on the Giants (my childhood team) to make my life easy on my birthday. While it’s a good lesson in probabilities (read: there is no sure thing), the process was sound.

Now it’s time to review my rankings for Week 3 and look at how they stack up against the Expert Consensus, commenting on any standouts or points of contention. Assume standard rankings when I say that a player is x spots ahead or below consensus.

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Week 3 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Quarterback is pretty similar at the top, though I have Philip Rivers and Eli Manning a few slots higher and subsequently pushed Ben Roethlisberger down a couple spots. Yes, Rivers is down two of his favorite passing targets, but the chemistry is there with Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams is an emerging weapon. Melvin Gordon is running better, and Mr. Antonio Gates is still there. He also gets a soft Indianapolis defense in a game that could blow up, which is really the big idea here.

Manning burned many people after failing to meet extremely lofty expectations, but he still threw for 368 yards and looked sharp on many of his throws. It isn’t his fault the usually sure-handed Odell Beckham Jr. dropped a TD. Washington’s defense isn’t intimidating, and Eli should have a great chance at delivering strong QB1 numbers in his second home start. Meanwhile Ben Roethlisberger has to travel to Philadelphia to engage a Philly defense that has looked pretty stout, though they haven’t tangled with an offense as potent as Pittsburgh’s. Still, it’s enough for me to make these swaps.

Deeper in the well one will see that I’ve switched Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill at #14 and #16, which isn’t much but I think that Flacco could easily find himself in a situation like Week 2 again against a much better Jacksonville team. After flailing for much of the first half against Cleveland’s vulnerable defense, Baltimore’s passing attack came to life and Flacco finished with over 300 yards and two TDs. The Jags could put Baltimore into shootout mode early with their own offense, but they also just gave up 38 points to a dinged up Charger offense. At the same time, Tannehill gets said awful Cleveland defense, but I just don’t trust the guy as a QB. It really comes down to that. I think Miami is still trying to establish an identity, and don’t want to trust it until I see it.

Week 3 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

This all looks pretty solid, but I’m putting Ezekiel Elliott at #6 versus a current consensus rank of #3 for now until I feel comfortable that he can hold onto the ball. It’s not much, and this opportunity against a really vulnerable Chicago team makes for the perfect gamescript for Dallas’ running game to destroy with nearly 40 minutes of possession, but he’s still in “prove-it mode” for now.

Let’s see here. Oh, okay so remember last week when we said Todd Gurley shouldn’t even be in the RB1 conversation? Looks like we need reassert this. He still has a consensus weekly ranking of #9. Nope, too high. Tampa Bay was embarrassed at Arizona I know, but the Rams are still just so ugly on offense and this Bucs defense still performs well overall against the run.

How about some optimism? I’ve got Mark Ingram up two spots versus consensus, as this’ll be the final chance he has to show me that he can be really involved in this 2016 offense. Perhaps they’re really limiting him in order to give him a shot at a 16-game season, but either way this is a home game for the Saints in a game that could see them steamroll a weak Atlanta run defense.

Speaking of that defense, the guy who scored against them last week, Latavius Murray, is three spots higher in my rankings than the consensus (#11 vs. #14). I like Oakland to control this game despite their defensive shortcomings in the first two weeks, so Murray gets a bump. I think the Titans are a solid run defense, but not as good as advertised thanks to matchups against a Minnesota O-line that has forgotten how to create a lane and a Detroit team that lost Ameer Abdullah and doesn’t really have a rushing identity.

There are obviously some other injury-related things that will iron out as the week progresses and injury reports are filed. Tampa Bay, Carolina, Minnesota, Seattle, Kansas City and Miami all have big implications hanging on them.

Week 3 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Last week we pushed Jordy Nelson up, and it looks like this needs to be revisited. I’ve got him at #10, three spots higher than consensus, as he caught five of his 11 targets for 73 yards and a TD (he has caught a TD in each of Green Bay’s first two games). He’s not racking up crazy yardage totals, but Aaron Rodgers clearly likes having him back and I anticipate his stats to ramp up as the season progresses. Green Bay at home against Detroit could also easily turn into a big one.

T.Y. Hilton (+3) hasn’t had one of his “big” games yet, but that could very well change in Week 3 when he gets to play at home in the dome against San Diego. Donte Moncrief’s health is a factor, but either way I would like Hilton in this spot. Creeping behind him in my rankings is Jeremy Maclin (+4), who will likely have to get involved with Kansas City’s rushing attack having to tangle with a stout Jets front seven. Yes, Darrelle Revis is still very good (Maclin does not have Marquise Goodwin’s speed), but Maclin is also a stud and KC is going to need him.

When DeSean Jackson plays the Giants, he should probably be ranked as a WR1, but maybe that’s just that old pessimistic Big Blue kid talking. He and fellow boom-or-bust burner Mike Wallace are up a few spots for me.

Week 3 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

While I respect Travis Kelce’s immense talent, and actually think KC will really need him this week (with the same rationale as Maclin), I just can’t trust him when there are other great options in the same range. I want Dennis Pitta (same reasons as Flacco), Eric Ebron (DET/GB shootout potential, plus Kyle Rudolph looked good against GB) and Julius Thomas (has topped 60 yards in each game, one TD) over him this week.

Jacob Tamme (+4) gets a bump here into the TE1 range due to the shootout potential of the ATL/NO game, but also because the guy has seen eight targets and collected over 50 yards in each of Atlanta’s first two games. He’s clearly a solid piece of this offense and has Matt Ryan’s trust, so I’d feel comfortable playing him as my starting tight end in a 12-team league.

As a result, Gary Barnidge and Martellus Bennett take a step down (while they get that narrative of working with an inexperienced QB who should look for a big safety blanket, they still have said inexperienced QB at the helm. Oh, and Bennett might not even be the "starter" anymore). Coby Fleener, aka Stonehands, did his best Stephen Hill impression in Week 2 (okay, so he’s done it pretty often), and showed everyone why enthusiasm was lukewarm as preseason progressed in New Orleans.

I’d rather talk more about the skill positions than include kicker or defense, as they are far less interesting to me. Feel free to send me a vitriolic message should you want them back, I’ll listen I swear.