September 24, 2016

Ben Ruppert's Week Three fantasy football matchups analysis (part 2) for the 2016 NFL season. Starts and sits for fantasy football lineups based on matchups.

What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part two of our Week 3 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the second half of the Week 3 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Campus (@pfunk00).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests for Week 3. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

Week 2 Matchups Analysis Recap

Greatest Hits: Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR), Carlos Hyde (RB, SF), Mike Wallace (WR, MIN)

The Cam Newton-to-Kelvin Benjamin connection continues to grow. No way Benjamin keeps up this TD pace (obviously) but you have to love what those two are doing. A top-five WR finish for Benjamin is not at all out of the question given his talent. Carlos Hyde was unable to repeat his solid Week 1 against a stout Panthers defense. It won’t get any easier for him this week against an even tougher Seahawks defense. Wallace caught only four passes, but two went for scores. He was a great play last week, and will be moving forward as long as Flacco keeps chucking it his way.

Greatest Misses: Antonio Brown (WR, PIT), A.J. Green (WR, CIN), Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)

The rare bad game from Antonio Brown. Definitely just a bump in the road against a tough defense, Brown will be a top-five player the rest of the season. A.J. Green threw up a clunker against the Steelers, just like Brown did. Those interdivisional games can be tough. Green will bounce back. Didn’t think Bryant would have a good game, but I was wrong on that one. Bryant saw his targets rise in Week 2, going from five to 12. He for 102 yards on seven catches; look for more of the same moving forward.

Cardinals @ Bills - Sunday 9/25 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

David Johnson (RB, ARI)

The Bills have not been good against running backs. Week 1 they allowed Justin Forsett to rush for 4.1 YPC. Week 2, Matt Forte ran all over the them. Johnson is similar to Forte with his ability to rush and catch passes. If he can get anywhere close to the 109 yards of total offense and three TDs Forte put up, Johnson owners will be delighted. Until the Bills get Marcel Dareus back from suspension, they will continue to be ineffective stopping the run.

Michael Floyd (WR, ARI)

Michael Floyd had a disappointing Week 2 that was saved by a TD. He caught two passes for eight yards, while Jaron Brown caught two deep balls for 78 yards and a score. Normally we would expect that from Floyd or John Brown. This week, Floyd will be matched up with Ronald Darby. Darby is a solid cornerback, but Floyd has a huge advantage given his size (6’2”, 220 lbs. Darby is 5’11”, 190). Considering this Bills defense just allowed nearly three 100 yard receivers to the Jets, this could be the week Floyd takes the top off the defense and has his first big game. I like him in this matchup.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

The most targeted member of the Cardinals receivers, Fitzgerald is in line for yet another solid outing in this matchup. Fitz has seen 21 targets over two weeks, placing him eighth overall in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore is arguably a top-10 CB in the league, but didn’t look like it last week. Fitz can use his size to battle for position and get open, much like Quincy Enunwa did against Gilmore last week. Fitz will be heavily targeted again, leading to a third straight solid fantasy output.

Matchups We Hate:

Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF)

With a new offensive coordinator in town, it is tough to predict exactly how the Bills will look on offense. The new OC Anthony Lynn has said he would like to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers more (Sammy Watkins, Charles Clay), but it is tough to like anyone in this offense until we see some results. Taylor will likely have another long passing TD (his deep ball is GORGEOUS), but against a secondary with Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Matheiu, Taylor could have a really rough outing.

Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)

Already held back by a foot injury, Watkins now has to step into the ring to square off with arguably the best CB in the entire league. He was able to tolerate the pain in his foot for most of last week and was OK while running in straight routes, but after watching him making hard cuts on certain routes you could see he came up limping. This week with Patrick Peterson on the other side of the ball, his production in this one will be extremely limited. Avoid starting Watkins unless you have no other good options. There is potential here given his talent, but it is likely this is a low-output game for Watkins.

Notable Players:

Carson Palmer (QB, ARI)

Carson Palmer has been solid for the Cardinals so far, with a 5:0 TD:INT ratio through two games. Heading into this one, he faces a Bills team that Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to light up. It is possible this game gets out of hand quickly, meaning the ball will be taken out of Palmer’s hand for the most part. There is a chance he throws a few INTs; contrary to last week, the Bills DO have a pretty good secondary. Even if he throws a pick or two, Palmer will be good for multiple TDs making him a good play on Sunday.

LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)

The Bills most consistent playmaker is up against a stout Cardinals defense. McCoy put up nearly identical stats in Weeks 1 and 2, averaging 20 touches and 80 yards a game. Expect more of the same this week, as the Bills will feed Shady in their backfield once again. The only thing keeping him from being a matchup we love is that the Bills may not score a lot of points, meaning his TD potential is very limited. If you own him you play him, but keep expectations in check against this defense.

49ers @ Seahawks - Sunday 9/25 @ 4:05 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Christine Michael (RB, SEA)

With this game shaping up to be a grinder, the Seahawks will look to the run game. With Thomas Rawls banged up, Christine Michael figures to be the lead back and receive the majority of the carries. He has been effective through two weeks, averaging a hair over five YPC. Last week the Panthers ran wild on this defense, rushing for 176 total yards without their top RB Jonathan Stewart. Look for Michael to carry the load and have a very productive day.

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)

Even though Doug Baldwin is expected to play, I still like Tyler Lockett to bust loose. Lockett was solid last week, catching four passes for 99 yards, with a long of 53. Lockett was a popular pick in fantasy circles as a player to break out in 2016, and with Baldwin not 100%, this will be the week Wilson looks his way often. Even though the offense as a whole has not been clicking and this is a divisional game (usually tougher matchups, see SEA v STL last week), Lockett has the potential to break loose for some big chunk gains.

Matchups We Hate:

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF)

After an excellent Week 1, Carlos Hyde had a difficult time against a difficult defense in Week 2. He ran for only 34 yards on 14 carries (2.4 average) with a long of eight yards and no TDs. This week, he faces an even tougher defense, on the road against Seattle. This matchup screams trouble for Hyde owners. I would be benching him at all costs.

Vance McDonald (TE, SF)

This Seahawks defense makes it tough to like anyone in the 49ers offense. If you look at Vance McDonald’s fantasy points from last week, you will be impressed by how well he did (13.5 points in standard), but the numbers don’t tell the entire story. He only caught one of two targets from Blaine Gabbert last Sunday, albeit it was for a 75-yard TD. Against a team that has allowed virtually zero production from the TE position, McDonald makes for an extremely difficult play this week.

Torrey Smith (WR, SF)

Blaine Gabbert was able to get Torrey Smith involved last week; he caught three passes for 55 yards and a TD. That TD helped the 49ers take a brief 10-to-7 lead over the Panthers last week, before Carolina completely took over. Smith will try to catch passes against the Legion of Boom which is no easy task. With Gabbert likely to be under pressure all game, it will be tough to get Smith involved the same way again. This will be a low-output game for Smith.

Notable Players:

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)

Russell Wilson is dealing with a high ankle sprain, decreasing his impressive ability to scramble and avoid sacks while turning those into big offensive plays. Without that dimension to their offense, the Seahawks are less threatening as a whole. Their stout defense will keep them in games, but while Wilson recovers (along with Rawls and Baldwin) it will be a rocky road to the end zone for points. He is still an OK play this week, but if you have a decent QB with a good matchup I would suggest starting them instead.

Rams @ Buccaneers - Sunday 9/25 @ 4:05 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

The Rams defense allowed the 49ers to dominate them in Week 1, only to turn around and completely dominate the Seahawks in Week 2. Where their defense should actually be rated is somewhere in between. A non-divisional game will be a great way to gauge that. Mike Evans, leading the league with 24 receptions through two weeks, is the prime WR target. Jameis Winston, especially with the loss of Doug Martin, will be looking Evans’ way a bunch once again in Week 3. As long as the targets are there, Evans will be a great play.

Charles Sims (RB, TB)

With Doug Martin out of the fold, we can now see what the Bucs really have in RB Charles Sims. When Sims filled in last week he ran for 24 yards on nine rushes, catching three passes for four yards. The entire offense was out of sync against a tough Cardinals defense, after looking dominant in Week 1. They will likely improve against the Rams. With Sims set and capable of playing all three downs, he will have a much better game this week on the ground and through the air.

Matchups We Hate:

Todd Gurley (RB, STL)

The schedule opens up over the next few weeks for Gurley, but this matchup with the Buccaneers will be another difficult one. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Bucs have done a nice job of limiting opposing RBs. They held Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman to 2.2 YPC in Week 1, and Chris and David Johnson to 3.5 YPC in Week 2. Gurley has only averaged 2.7 so far this season, as teams continue to stack the box with the lack of QB play on the Rams. Gurley will see another tough outing in Week 3, meaning owners will have to wait another week for his breakout game.

Notable Players:

Jameis Winston (QB, TB)

After a spectacular Week 1, Winston and the Bucs came crashing back down to earth in Week 2. Winston threw for 243 yards and a TD, with four INTs. This week he draws another solid defense, though not as difficult as the Cardinals. Expect a rebound from the young QB, a few TDs and an INT or two.

Kenny Britt (WR, STL)

Even with the anemic passing offense of the Rams, Kenny Britt has become somewhat viable as a fantasy WR so far this season. He has caught 10 passes for 161 yards through two games, and if the Rams get down early they will need to look to the pass again. Tavon Austin is the most targeted player on the team, but has failed to do much with his chances. The big-bodied Britt could have another solid game on Sunday.

Jets @ Chiefs - Sunday 9/25 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Eric Decker (WR, NYJ)

Eric Decker was dominant last week against the Bills, catching six of his eight targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. Decker has been a touchdown machine with the Jets, which is the reason you put him in your lineups no matter what. In 18 straight games, Decker has at least a TD or 80 yards receiving (many times, both!). He has an extremely high floor with a great ceiling. I love Decker in this matchup, even against a better than average KC defense.

Matt Forte (WR, NYJ)

The Jets are feeding their feature back a ton this season. Forte has averaged 29.5 touches per game through two weeks, and that total will figure to stay the same in Week 3. Capable of doing it all offensively, Forte will find his way to a solid yardage total again. Since he is also the short-yardage back, a TD or two is certainly within reason for the stud RB. As an RB1 in all fantasy leagues, he should be started no matter what.

Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC)

Jeremy Maclin gets the pleasure of going against Revis island in Week 3, a place that has been more of a vacation spot than a sentence this season. In Week 1, A.J. Green torched Revis for 12 catches, 180 yards, and a TD. In Week 2, it was Marquise Goodwin hauling in an 84-yard TD from Tyrod Taylor. Alex Smith may not have the deep ball strength that Andy Dalton and Taylor have, but he will target Maclin early and often. Maclin is a bit faster than Green is, so if he can generate some separation he will be in line for a huge day, in line with what Green and Goodwin were able to do. I would be surprised if he doesn’t find his way into the end zone this week.

Matchups We Hate:

Alex Smith (QB, KC)

Smith had an extremely tough time against a hard-nose Texans defense last week, completing 20-of-37 passes for only 186 yards, while being sacked four times. While the Jets defense is not as good as the Texans, it is still a force to be reckoned with. They were able to intercept Dalton and Taylor in Weeks 1 and 2, and were able to sack Dalton seven times. Taylor was pressured for much of the day, and was unable to get much going outside of two long TDs. Smith will have his difficulties once again in Week 3.

Spencer Ware/Charcandrick West (RB, KC)

The Jets defense is a tough one to run against. With Charles looking like he will be held out one more week, it’s the Ware and West show once again. Ware has been more productive this season, but with limited touches last week West looked great gaining 61 yards on six carries. This Jets rushing defense stuffed the Bengals duo in Week 1, and held Shady McCoy to only 59 yards in Week 2. I would be wary starting either of these RBs this week. With all of the injuries to RBs last week, it may be tough to avoid this outing.

Notable Players:

Brandon Marshall/Quincy Enunwa (WR, NYJ)

Brandon Marshall may or may not play against the Chiefs while his knee injury heals up, but if he does play he will be limited, making him a risky play. Marshall was great last week while healthy, catching six of nine passes for 101 yards. Hopefully Marshall sits this week so he can get fully healthy, but if he plays, he will be a dice roll. He could still be very effective, or he could play the role of decoy while Decker and Quincy Enunwa eat up the passes. If Marshall is held out, Enunwa would be a prime flex play in Week 3.

Steelers @ Eagles - Sunday 9/25 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)

Fresh off one of the lowest output games of his career, Brown will look to get back on track against an Eagles secondary that has yet to see a player of Brown’s caliber this season. The best they have gotten is Alshon Jeffery, who had five catches for 96 yards in the anemic Bears offense. Expect a rebound in a big way for Brown. He is one of the best in the entire league at his position.

DeAngelo Williams (RB, PIT)

This is the last chance DeAngelo Williams will be able to showcase his abilities on the field before Le’Veon Bell returns to the team and reclaims his starting RB role. Through the first two weeks of the season, Williams has been unstoppable. He has averaged 118.5 yards and a TD per game on the ground, as well as 33 yards receiving per game. Roll Williams out there with extreme confidence one last time, then let him ride the bench until something happens with Bell. Williams will still get some carries to keep Bell fresh, but he will be the main back. Williams is a strong play this week.

Eli Rogers (WR, PIT)

Last week, the Bears threw a ton of short-to-intermediate passes that the Eagles had some difficulties covering. While that was likely because the Bears offensive line is poor and their QBs needed to get the ball out, it still shows that they are susceptible to those plays on defense. Slot man Eli Rogers has sure hands and above average quickness, meaning if given the chance he will eat up a ton of these passes. I like Rogers in PPR formats this week against the Eagles defense.

Matchups We Hate:

Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI)

Ryan Mathews had a tough time last week against the Bears, rushing for 32 yards on nine carries. He was seen in practice this week with tape on his ankle, which doesn’t bode well for his chances to perform well on Sunday. The two short TDs he scored saved his fantasy day, but he was unable to get much going. Even in Week 1 he only averaged 3.5 YPC. Against an underrated front seven that limited Matt Jones in Week 1 and the Bengals duo rushing the ball in Week 2, whoever gets the bulk of the carries for the Eagles won’t have it easy.

Notable Players:

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)

Big Ben would be in my love category if this were a start at home, but this one is on the road in Philadelphia. As I have brought up in this column previously, Big Ben is not the most reliable QB when it comes to starting away from Heinz Field. He has had his troubles in the past. Last season, his TD:INT ratio differed mightily at home versus on the road (Home-16:7, Road- 5:9). Even in his stellar 2014 season, the tale was the same (Home-23:4, Road- 9:5). I can’t fully buy into Big Ben against the Eagles.

Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI)

One week after they were able to completely shut A.J. Green out of the Bengals offense, in comes Jordan Matthews. Matthews has had a great start to the season as the focal point of the offense. He has seen 23 targets (second in the league), and caught 13 of them for 185 yards and a TD. It is likely the Steelers use the same gameplan on him as they did Green, so this may be a tough one for the young WR. However, if Matthews lines up more in the slot like he is accustomed to as opposed to the outside, he may be able to make a living in this one catching short passes.

Chargers @ Colts - Sunday 9/25 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Philip Dorsett (WR, IND)

With the news breaking of Donte Moncrief missing four-to-six weeks of action, Philip Dorsett moves a step up the depth chart for the Colts. Dorsett showed flashes of his good play last season. Week 1, Andrew Luck was forced to throw to Dorsett; he led the team in receiving with 94 yards. This week against a weak Chargers defense, look for Dorsett to have his best game of the season.

Tyrell Williams (WR, SD)

Tyrell Williams has gone from unknown in fantasy circles to a hot commodity extremely quickly. In this outing against the Colts, top CB Vontae Davis will cover WR1 Travis Benjamin, meaning Williams will have room to navigate against this soft secondary. With Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead both done for the season, and with Antonio Gates nursing some injuries, opportunities should be plentiful in this matchup for Williams. Start him as a solid flex option this week.

Matchups We Hate:

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)

T.Y. Hilton will draw shut down CB Jason Verrett in this outing, meaning he will be very difficult to trust. Hilton has been OK this season, catching 10 passes for 120 yards over two games. While it is possible Luck will need to throw the ball a lot again, he has other options he can use if Verrett shuts him down. Hilton is a risky Week 3 play.

Travis Benjamin (WR, SD)

Much like Hilton, Benjamin’s outlook is very limited in Week 3 because of the CB he will be up against. Vontae Davis is no joke, and has a real chance of completely shutting down whoever he is put up against. If he gets put on Benjamin all game, expect a minimal amount of catches from the WR.

Notable Players:

Andrew Luck (QB, IND)

After an excellent Week 1, Andrew Luck ran into troubles in Week 2 with the stout Broncos defense. That defense held him to only 197 yards passing with a TD and an INT. He will have a much easier task at home Week 3 against the Chargers. However, Luck lost Donte Moncrief last week, one of his more reliable targets. It remains to be seen how the offense will react, but with Moncrief gone and Hilton covered by Jason Verrett, his options will be limited even against a softer defense. Look for a turnaround for Luck this week.

Philip Rivers (QB, SD)

Philip Rivers is running out of more and more weapons every game. He lost Allen Week 1, Woodhead Week 2, and heading into Week 3 Gates is limited I practice while nursing some injuries. He still has options in Benjamin, Williams, and RB Melvin Gordon, but it is becoming harder and harder to invest in Rivers. It is likely he will have to pass a lot in this one. It's a matter of if the rest of the team can do their jobs effectively to help him out.

Bears @ Cowboys - Sunday 9/25 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Ezekiel Elliot (RB, DAL)

Don’t you mind the fumbling problems Ezekiel Elliot faced last week. While it certainly didn’t look good with him being benched for Alfred Morris, his big workload isn’t going anywhere. Against a Bears defense that has lost some key pieces, including Justin Houston last week, Elliot will find his way to a top-10 RB finish this week. We haven’t seen the best of Zeke yet, but we may see his best so far in Week 3.

Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)

Dez Bryant saw his targets more than double from Week 1 to Week 2, going from five to 12 while he eclipsed 100 yards for the first time in 2016. As long as Prescott keeps looking his way, there are very few CBs who can stop Bryant’s large frame. Look for him to find the end zone for the first time in 2016 during this one.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, CHI)

Even with Brian Hoyer now at the helm for the Bears, Jeffery is still a great play this week. Hoyer will need to air the ball out plenty with the Cowboys likely scoring points on offense. Last season with the Texans, Hoyer was able to effectively feed top WR DeAndre Hopkins often, leading him to have his most productive season to date. The same should go for Jeffery in this one. This should be his biggest game yet in 2016.

Matchups We Hate:

Jeremy Langford (RB, CHI)

Langford had a rough outing last week for the Bears. He rushed for only 28 yards on 11 carries, and caught one pass for six yards. He also fumbled to start the fourth quarter, and saw the field very little after that. Langford saw his snap count decrease from Week 1 to Week 2, seeing Jordan Howard and Ka’Deem Carey more involved last week. Langford is not a safe play this week, and could lose his starting job all together very soon.

Notable Players:

Jason Witten (TE, DAL)

Jason Witten is still a favorite target of QB Dak Prescott. He has been targeted 18 times through two games, and will continue to be a solid PPR TE moving forward. He may not get a ton of yards, but the amount of passes he catches keep him relevant.