Week 16 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

December 29, 2020

Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Nelson Agholor, Josh Jacobs, Brandon Allen and more.

Quarterback was a crazy position to navigate in Week 16. Tom Brady saw just 30 minutes of action against the Lions and still managed to finish as QB-2 and Andy Dalton, who is only rostered in 13% of Yahoo leagues shredded the Eagles Defense to finish as QB-3. Mitch Trubisky accounted for three touchdowns, finishing as QB-7, and even though Jalen Hurts came back down to earth a little in his third start, he still finished as QB-12. Tight end was fairly hot this week with Irv Smith Jr., Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski each scoring two touchdowns finishing inside the top-five. Travis Kelce and Darren Waller also came through, and while George Kittle didn't explode, he did have a decent game in his return from injury.

Davante Adams tore up Week 16 in the snow against the Titans, catching 11 passes for 142 yards and three touchdowns to finish as WR-1. Mike Evans dominated a Lions Defense that was playing uninspired football and Michael Gallup gained 121 yards and scored twice against a struggling Eagles secondary. Allen Robinson was questionable with an injury but ended up gaining 103 yards and Tee Higgins continued his solid rookie campaign with six catches for 99 yards and a score.

Alvin Kamara scored six touchdowns this week to finish as RB-1 with the type of performance that only happens once every couple of decades. Outside of Kamara, there were some surprises at running back this week as Samaje Perine, Jeff Wilson Jr., AJ Dillon and J.D. McKissic, all of which are backups, finished inside the top-10 for the week. Now that Week 16 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

Brandon Allen, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16 Stats: 29-of-37 passing, 371 yards, 2 TD, 2 carries, 3 yards

The Texans secondary is depleted and didn't offer much resistance to the Bengals passing or running game this week. Brandon Allen had a clean pocket for most of the game and was able to distribute the ball to A.J. Green, Tee Higgins and Alex Erickson while also working the screen-game fairly well with Gio Bernard. Allen finished as QB-10 on the week.

Bottom Line: Brandon Allen is not a good fantasy quarterback. This was one of the best matchups Allen could have had and this will likely go down as the best game of his career.

Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders

Week 16 Stats: 6 targets, 5 catches, 155 yards, 1 TD

The Raiders offense struggled against the Dolphins and Nelson Agholor wasn't really featured in the game. Agholor did, however, make a catch in the fourth quarter that he was able to take for an 85-yard touchdown.

Bottom Line: The Raiders offense wants to go through the running game and Darren Waller is their primary pass-target. This makes Nelson Agholor volatile from week-to-week, but he is dangerous with the ball in his hands. Agholor scored eight touchdowns finishing as WR-33 on the season, but he saw just 78 targets, so don't get too crazy trading for him in dynasty leagues.

Ja'Marcus Bradley, Cleveland Browns

Week 16 Stats: 11 targets, 5 catches, 60 yards

The Browns were without Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Jarvis Landry due to COVID-related reasons on Sunday which elevated Marvin Hall and Ja'Marcus Bradley into the starting lineup. Marvin Hall is nothing more than a deep-threat which meant that Ja'Marcus Bradley, who played 95.1% of the Browns offensive snaps, was the main possession receiver in their offense.

Bottom Line: Rashard Higgins played 2020 on a one-year $910,000 contract which makes him a free agent heading into the 2021 NFL season. Donovan Peoples-Jones and Jarvis Landry would be the top-two receivers for the Browns next year if Higgins moves on, but Bradley showed us enough to warrant at least some consideration in dynasty formats. That being said, even if Higgins moves on and Bradley has a role in 2021, the Browns are a run-heavy offense that utilizes a lot of 12-personnel, so there's really only room for two receivers to produce in this offense which caps any upside.

Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16 Stats: 13 carries, 95 yards, 2 TD, 4 targets, 4 catches, 41 yards

The Bengals absolutely destroyed the Texans on the ground this weekend, running the ball 33 times for 169 yards. Samaje Perine had the longest run on the day, taking one of his carries for a 46-yard score.

Bottom Line: The Bengals play the Ravens in Week 17 so Perine isn't likely to repeat this performance. Given his strong showing this week, Perine may have some appeal in dynasty formats as a handcuff, but Gio Bernard does have one year left on his deal so it may not be with the Bengals.

Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers

Week 16 Stats: 22 carries, 183 yards, 2 targets, 1 catch, 21 yards, 1 TD

In Week 16 Jeff Wilson played a season-high 69.6% of the offensive snaps, and it was just the second time this season he played more than 50%. In both games that Wilson played more than 50% of the offensive snaps he went over 100 yards on the ground and scored.

Bottom Line: If you have Jeff Wilson on your roster in a keeper or dynasty league, you should hold onto him this offseason. Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon will be another year older in 2021 and aren't a lock to make the 49ers roster. Wilson has managed to hang around now for a few years, and it seems like every time he's asked to fill in, he comes through. If the 49ers don't draft a running back in 2021, Wilson could have some serious appeal in fantasy drafts next year.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Week 16 Stats: 13 carries, 69 yards, 2 targets

Josh Jacobs played just 50% of the Raiders offensive snaps in Week 16 which was his third-lowest snap total on the season. Jacobs can catch the ball out of the backfield and he's a good runner, but his usage is puzzling. This game was never out of reach for the Raiders, which begs to question why he wasn't used more. Jacobs only played more than 60% of the Raiders offensive snaps eight times this season, which is less than you would expect from a second-year running back that was selected in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft.

Bottom Line: Josh Jacobs is a high-end talent but for some reason, the Raiders simply avoid using him consistently in the passing game which makes his fantasy value somewhat difficult to handicap. Jacobs was RB-9 on the season and did so with just 44 targets in the passing game.

Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings

Week 16 Stats: 9 targets, 6 catches, 52 yards, 2 TD

Kyle Rudolph missed another week and Irv Smith really came through. Since Rudolph began missing time due to injury, Smith has played at least 80% of the Vikings offensive snaps and he's been targeted 13 times over the last two weeks.

Bottom Line: Irv Smith is a stud. Unfortunately, he plays in a run-first offense and Kyle Rudolph normally plays more snaps than him because of his blocking abilities. If the Vikings either move on from Kyle Rudolph or move towards a more pass-heavy approach, Smith would be a sure-fire TE1 in 2021. Neither of those things are likely to happen, which means Smith will probably remain a boom-or-bust option unless Rudolph misses time.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis