Week 15 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

December 22, 2020

Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Tyler Conkin, Kendrick Bourne, Jalen Hurts and more.

Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill each accounted for at least four touchdowns in Week 15, while also registering at least 37 fantasy points, finishing as the top-three quarterbacks on the week. The studs came through for the most part with the exception of Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson who each uncharacteristically scored less than 20 fantasy points. Tight end was fairly stable this week, with Darren Waller, Logan Thomas, Travis Kelce and Noah Fant each registering 20 fantasy points. In surprising fashion, Tyler Higbee returned to relevance, catching four passes for 67 yards and a touchdown, finishing as TE-7.

Calvin Ridley was targeted 14 times with Julio Jones out of the lineup for the second week in a row, finishing as WR-1 on the week. DeAndre Hopkins had a 30-point performance, finishing as WR-2 on the week, but after Hopkins, there were some surprises. Marvin Jones went off for 112 yards and a touchdown and Zach Pascal scored twice, both finishing inside the top-five in scoring.

The stud running backs came through for the most part in Week 15 but the big surprise was Tony Pollard finishing as RB-1 while filling in for Ezekiel Elliott who was inactive. Gio Bernard emerged after getting benched in Week 14 and finished inside the top-15 at running back. David Montgomery continued his late season surge as RB-2 and J.D. McKissic hauled in nine balls on his way to an RB-4 finish, just ahead of Derrick Henry. Now that Week 15 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders

Week 15 Stats: 17-of-28 passing, 226 yards, 1 TD, 9 carries, 88 yards, 1 TD

Marcus Mariota came in off the bench in Week 15 against the Chargers after Derek Carr hurt his groin. Mariota looked like he was shot out of a cannon at times while running the ball and the Chargers Defense looked unprepared for it. While he did get it done on the ground, Mariota did miss some throws, one of which could have been a long touchdown to Nelson Agholor.

Bottom Line: Mariota and the Raiders play the Dolphins in Week 16. On the season, the Dolphins Defense has only surrendered 20-or-more fantasy points to quarterbacks six times, and have given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the position on the season, making Mariota a less than ideal fantasy quarterback for championship weekend. The Dolphins will also have a week to prepare for Mariota as the starter, which does not bode well for him.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 15 Stats: 24-of-44 passing, 338 yards, 3 TD, 11 carries, 63 yards, 1 TD

Jalen Hurts made his second career start on Sunday against the Cardinals and he was spectacular. Hurts clearly offers an element to the Eagles offense that Carson Wentz did not. Hurts helps hide the deficiencies with the Eagles offense line and he's sparked a resurgence for Miles Sanders as well.

Bottom Line: Hurts is a sure-fire QB1 in Week 16 against the Dallas Cowboys who have been terrible on defense against the run and the pass the entire year.

Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts

Week 15 Stats: 6 targets, 5 catches, 79 yards, 2 TD

Zach Pascal played 87% of the Colts offensive snaps in Week 15 which is slightly above his season-average of 75%. This was Pascal's first game in six weeks with more than five targets and his first game in four weeks with multiple catches. Both Michael Pittman Jr. and T.Y. Hilton played their normal compliment of snaps which means Pascal didn't see an increase in playing time over either of them.

Bottom Line: The Colts offense runs through Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr. and T.Y. Hilton. Pascal simply isn't consistently involved enough in the Colts offense to be trusted on championship weekend.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Week 15 Stats: 7 targets, 5 catches, 85 yards, 1 RET TD

CeeDee Lamb had a modest game in the Cowboys passing game in Week 15, but he came through as WR-11 on the week after he returned an onside-kick for a touchdown at the end of the game. Michael Gallup injured his hip this week and if he misses Week 16, Lamb will surely see an increase in targets.

Bottom Line: The Cowboys play the Eagles in Week 16 and if Darius Slay returns to the lineup, he will cover Amari Cooper for a majority of the game or Michael Gallup if he's able to return. The Eagles secondary is banged up and Lamb could be in for a big game as the Cowboys fight to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Kendrick Bourne, San Francisco 49ers

Week 15 Stats: 4 targets, 4 catches, 86 yards, 1 TD

Deebo Samuel missed Week 15 and Kendrick Bourne was supposed to see an increase in playing time in his absence. Instead, Bourne played just 50% of the 49ers offensive snaps which is quite a bit under his season-average of 64.5%. Bourne had a quiet day until he scored a 49-yard touchdown at the end of regulation.

Bottom Line: Bourne may have finished as WR-15 on the week but he would have only managed to score 6.7 points had he not caught that bomb at the end of the game. Bourne cannot be trusted in Week 16.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

Week 15 Stats: 12 carries, 69 yards, 2 TD, 9 targets, 6 catches, 63 yards

With Ezekiel Elliott out of the lineup on Sunday, Tony Pollard played a season-high 89.7% of the Cowboys offensive snaps, which was also the first time he played over 40% of the snaps all year. Pollard looked great out there, averaging 5.75 yards-per-carry and was involved in the passing game.

Bottom Line: If Elliott misses Week 16, Pollard will have back-end RB1 potential against the Eagles. While the Eagles are pretty good against the run and give up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, Pollard offers a lot in the passing game which makes him viable. If Elliott plays, expectations need to be tempered.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

Week 15 Stats: 8 carries, 68 yards, 1 TD, 3 targets, 3 catches, 16 yards

Devin Singletary was RB-18 on the week. After fumbling in Week 13 and playing just 15.1% of the offensive snaps, Zack Moss has resumed his 50% split of the Bills backfield snaps with Singletary.

Bottom Line: If Devin Singletary didn't rip off that 51-yard touchdown run at the end of the game while the Bills were running out the clock, he would have only registered 6.3 fantasy points. He cannot be trusted as anything more than a back-end RB3 in Week 16 against the Patriots.

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings

Week 15 Stats: 4 targets, 3 catches, 57 yards, 1 TD

Either Irv Smith Jr. or Kyle Rudolph have been out of the Vikings lineup since Week 12, and during that time, Tyler Conklin has played at least 57% of the Vikings offensive snaps in each of those games. Conklin was a TE1 this week but he had a great matchup against a Bears Defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Week 15 was the first time Conklin exceeded 50 yards this season.

Bottom Line: Conklin would have come up extremely small if he didn't have that 30-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown. Irv Smith Jr. is the Vikings tight end you want to roster, don't chase Conklin's points.

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