December 16, 2016

Pierre Camus' Week 15 fantasy football matchups analysis (part 1) for the 2016 NFL season. Starts and sits for fantasy football lineups based on matchups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Week 15 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the first half of the Week 15 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive BOTH our full season NFL and NBA Premium Passes for free, a $119.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium Passes.

Week 14 Recap

Greatest Hits: Pierre Garcon (WR, WAS), David Johnson (RB, ARI), Kenny Britt (WR, LA)

It wasn't a huge game, but Garcon provided nice value after flying under the fantasy radar for much of the season, highlighting the need to pay attention to recent trends. Kenny Britt also continues to produce WR2 numbers, regardless of who is at quarterback or head coach. David Johnson didn't reach the end zone, but continued his streak of 100 total yards. He's as close to a sure thing as you can get.

Greatest Misses: Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI),  Jimmy Graham (WR, SEA), Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)

Maybe the weather was to blame for Fitzgerald suddenly going cold in Miami, but it didn't stop Kenny Stills from getting 97 yards and Jarvis Landry 103, so maybe we should give the Dolphins defense some credit instead. Jimmy Graham was just one of several Seahawks to let down fantasy owners last week. Brandon Marshall suffered with Bryce Petty at QB, despite a dream matchup against the Niners.

Eagles @ Ravens - Sunday 12/18 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Kenneth Dixon (RB, BAL) - The baton has officially been handed off from Terrance West to Kenneth Dixon. If you watched Monday Night Football this past week, you saw how Dixon has become a focal point of the Ravens offense. He managed just 81 total yards, but he ran the ball 11 times and was targeted 11 times in the passing game. He also reached the end zone for his first NFL touchdown. If you're in a full PPR league, Dixon looks like a bonafide RB2 this week.

Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI) - The return of DGB means Matthews can move back to the slot where he will match up with Jerraud Powers. Matthews should see plenty of targets. He's seen at least 10 targets in five of his last six games. Matthews is a low-ceiling WR2 in PPR leagues due to his lack of touchdowns (three this season).

Zach Ertz (TE, PHI) - Ertz is the highest targeted Eagles player over the last month and has seen 45 targets the last four games. He turned in a 10-catch, 112 yard game against Washington last week. He won't reach those lofty totals against the Ravens, but he is creeping into top-five TE status and should be started universally.

Matchups We Hate

Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI) - His return last week proved to be impeccable timing as Wendell Smallwood left the game with a knee sprain and has been placed on IR. Mathews ran for 60 yards on 15 carries, good for four yards a pop. Unfortunately, he has only exceeded 60 yards in a game twice this season. Facing the Ravens' stingy run defense makes him a TD-dependent flex play. If Darren Sproles misses the game, he can be upgraded to an RB2.

Notable Players

Darren Sproles (RB, PHI) - After scoring a touchdown against the Skins, Sproles left early with a concussion and must go through the protocol to be cleared for Week 15. Even if he suits up, he faces the top run defense in the league playing on their home turf. It's best to be on the safe side and keep Sproles sidelined this week.

Breshad Perriman (WR, BAL) - In PPR leagues, Perriman is mostly an afterthought, but he has a TD in three of the last five games and is taking over the deep threat role from Mike Wallace. If you need to roll the dice on a flex in a non-PPR league, Perriman could score against an Eagles team that has allowed two receiving touchdowns in each of the last four games.

Steelers @ Bengals - Sunday 12/18 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Le'Veon Bell (RB, PIT) - If you've been riding Bell to the semifinals of your playoff bracket, congratulations. The Bengals have been much better on defense since their bye in Week 9, but they are still in the bottom half as far as fantasy points allowed to RB. It's hard to imagine he can come close to approaching last week's eye-popping 298-yard, three-TD performance, but he should be the #2 RB in fantasy rankings this week, behind only David Johnson.

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT) - Starting AB shouldn't take much convincing, but fantasy owners should quell any doubts about his 39-yard showing against the Bengals in Week 2. Le'Veon Bell wasn't around then to keep defenses honest and this Bengals team knows they are out of playoff contention. Brown should be just fine as a WR1 this week.

Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN) - Since being targeted 11 times in Week 12, Eifert has seen only eight the last two games. He still managed to score in each of them, giving him four TD in the last three games. Eifert isn't going to be the PPR monster that Travis Kelce is, but he is among the best tight ends in standard leagues and should be rolled out each week.

Matchups We Hate

Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN) - Hill came up big last week with 142 total yards and a touchdown, but that was against the hapless Browns. The Steelers are holding opponents to 62 rushing yards per game in the last four contests. If Cleveland did not exist for the sole purpose of allowing huge games to their opponents, Hill would be averaging 46.2 rush yards per game on the season with a 3.16 Y/A. He will need a goal-line plunge to help fantasy owners this week.

Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN) - The fact that Boyd had one of the best games of his rookie year against Pittsburgh in Week 2 may tempt some into starting him this week. He faces off against William Gay, who has shut down opposing slot receivers as of late. No slot receiver has scored or broken 55 yards in the last month and a half against the Steelers since their bye. Not that Boyd has been lighting the fantasy world on fire anyway, but if you were rolling with him since the Green injury, fade him this week if possible.

Notable Players

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) - If this game goes the way we think, Dalton could be putting the ball in the air frequently. It won't be his most efficient day, as the Steelers have clamped down on opponents lately. Still, there may be enough volume for Dalton to come away with a 300-yard game and a TD or two.

Packers @ Bears - Sunday 12/18 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) - Seattle's defense posed no threat to Rodgers as he tossed three more TD last week. The Bears are playing for nothing more than pride at this point and should barely impede Rodgers on his way to another huge day. He threw for 326 yards and three scores in Week 7 against them, marking the start of his current hot streak.

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) - Nelson waited a week later to start his hot streak after catching just one ball against Chicago in their first meeting. Since then, Nelson has scored in all but one game, registering seven TD since Week 7. Bet on the current version of Nelson, not the one from the first Bears game. He should be a top-five receiver this week.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) - Howard had one of the worst games of his rookie season against the Packers, rushing for 33 yards in Week 7. That doesn't matter now, as Howard is on cruise control even with a third-string QB at the helm. Give him one more yard in Week 11 and Howard would have six straight games of at least 100 total yards. It may not be his best week, but you should start him with confidence that he won't lay an egg.

Matchups We Hate

Matt Barkley (QB, CHI) - This applies mainly to teams in two-quarterback leagues who might consider Barkley as a second option. His surprisingly huge game against the Titans in Week 12 seems to be an outlier in an otherwise bland career thus far. Barkley couldn't score upon the miserable 49ers defense and managed just 212 yards and one TD last week in Detroit. In relief earlier this year, he was picked twice by the same Packers team he faces this Sunday. Avoid the huge risk here, even if you believe the Bears will be forced to pass throughout the second half to catch up.

Notable Players

Ty Montgomery (RB/WR, GB) - Montgomery is still the running back of choice for the Pack, while Christine Michael is serving as nothing more than a change of pace. The Tybrid hasn't done much for fantasy owners, however, and would be hard to trust for a big stakes matchup. He did score his first TD of the season in a blowout last week. The last time he went over 100 total yards from scrimmage was against these Bears when he caught 10 passes and wound up with 126 YScm. That Packers team was searching for its identity at the time and seems to have found it in the deep passing game since. Montgomery is a borderline flex play in PPR leagues only.

Jaguars @ Texans - Sunday 12/18 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Marqise Lee (WR, JAX) - Not only does Lee get the best draw in this week's contest, he may be the Jags' best fantasy player at this point. He led the team by far with 113 yards last week and has provided solid value in three of the last four games. Lee will square off against Robert Nelson most of the time on Sunday, while Allen Robinson faces the highly rated A.J. Bouye. He is entering the WR2 conversation and should be played this week.

Ryan Griffin (TE, HOU) - If you are the type who streams tight ends or is in need of a pickup at the position, Griffin could be a sleeper play. C.J. Fiedorowicz has missed practice all week with concussion symptoms and is questionable for Sunday. Slot receiver Braxton Miller is also out with an injury. Griffin may play a bigger role than usual in Week 15. His ceiling is fairly limited, but he did score a TD against the Jags earlier in the year.

Matchups We Hate

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU) - He couldn't take advantage of a good matchup last week, catching two passes for 33 yards, and it will actually get tougher against the Jags. The young team is tightening up on defense, allowing an average of 178 passing yards per game in the last six contests. Houston's offensive struggles have already been well-documented to this point. Hopkins is not a must-start based on his draft status three months ago. Statistically speaking, he has been a low-ceiling WR3 all year and it will stay that way this week.

Allen Robinson (WR, JAX) - Another surefire WR1 in fantasy drafts that turned bust, A-Rob simply isn't getting the job done and is best avoided. He has a total of nine receptions for 91 yards in the last four games combined. Let that sink in for a minute... He did have his best game of the season against the Texans in Week 10, catching nine balls for 107 yards and a TD, but corner A.J. Bouye missed that game. Bouye is back to blanket the struggling receiver, which makes Robinson downright benchable.

Notable Players

Alfred Blue (RB, HOU) - Houston is fighting for their division and needs a healthy Lamar Miller to compete. Blue will continue to spell Miller to the tune of 12-15 carries per game, giving him some deep league flex appeal. He is also a bit more effective in short-yardage situations, which may come into play against a defense allowing the eighth-most rushing touchdowns to RB.

Titans @ Chiefs - Sunday 12/18 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN) - His impressive run of seven TD in eight games was predictably put to a halt against the Broncos last week. He faces Marcus Peters this week, which may give some owners pause, but Peters has been beaten several times this year and has allowed the fifth-most receiving yardage. Matthews has a good chance to resume his scoring ways, even in a tough matchup on paper.

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) - Murray may be slowing down a little, but he is still averaging 19 carries and three targets in the last four games. He has failed to score a touchdown in three games this entire season. He remains one of the safest bets at RB this week and for the remainder of the season.

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC) - Five TD in the last three games and nine on the year make Hill a must-start in your flex spot. If your league doesn't count special teams, then he can be downgraded based on the rest of your roster, but he has proven to be a big play threat on offense as well. The Titans have now become the most generous pass defense to WR, passing even San Francisco, so Hill deserves a start in all formats this week.

Matchups We Hate

Spencer Ware (RB, KC) - How the mighty have fallen. Ware was looking like the waiver wire add of the year mid-season, but has faltered since the second half began. He hasn't accumulated 100 total yards and has only scored in one game since Week 7. The Titans come in with the fifth-best defense against RB for fantasy points allowed. Ware will be a shaky RB2 at best this week.

Notable Players

Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN) - His upside makes him a tempting start, but the Chiefs are very good at forcing turnovers. They are fifth in the league with 14 INT and are playing at Arrowhead this week with a rejuvenated Justin Houston on the hunt. Before last week's debacle in Denver (6-for-20 with 88 passing yards), Mariota had already been slowing down his offensive production. He is on the upper end of the QB2 spectrum this week.

Colts @ Vikings - Sunday 12/18 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Adam Thielen (WR, MIN) - Stefon Diggs is once again questionable heading into Sunday. Even so, he has put up pedestrian numbers over the last month. Thielen, on the other hand, has gone for 86 and 101 yards the previous two weeks. He'll face a suddenly beatable Vontae Davis on a Colts defense that has been more down than up this year. Roll Thielen out as a WR3, especially if Diggs is a no-go.

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN) - Rudolph also stands to benefit from the potential absence of Diggs, but has enough stand-alone value to be considered a TE1 regardless. He has been targeted 30 times over the last three weeks and scored his sixth TD of the year last week. His upside is limited, given that 70 yards is his high on the season, but standard league owners always have a chance for double-digit points when the Vikings approach the red zone.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND) - Matchups be damned, you have to start Hilton this week if you own him. He has 18 catches and 261 yards in the last two weeks alone. Hilton is more of a boom-bust play this week because of the Vikings' tough secondary, but his upside is just too high to keep benched. There are few hotter receivers in the league right now.

Matchups We Hate

Andrew Luck (QB, IND) - If you are a Luck owner, it may be time to bench your QB1 for the playoffs, even if it's the championship game. Luck has been a steady performer this season, throwing a touchdown in every game and only falling below 200 yards once. While he possesses a high floor, his ceiling will be very limited this game. Minnesota hasn't allowed more than 262 passing yards to a team the entire season. Here's how some of the top QBs fared against the Vikings in 2016 so far: Aaron Rodgers (213 YDS, 1 TD), Eli Manning (261 YDS, 0 TD), Kirk Cousins (262 YDS, 2 TD), Matthew Stafford (219 YDS, 2 TD). If 260 yards and two TD is the best-case scenario, you may be better off rolling with another option.

Donte Moncrief (WR, IND) - Moncrief's balky hamstring may keep him out of action in Week 15, so plan to be without him. If he does play, he will not be at 100% and faces off against the second-toughest defense to WR. He had scored a touchdown in five consecutive games before exiting early last week in a no-catch outing against Houston. Don't bet on that streak extending this week.

Notable Players

Matt Asiata (RB, MIN) - PPR owners can keep ignoring Asiata, but if you are in a league where touchdowns are weighted more heavily, he is always worth a flex because of his goal-line usage. Asiata scored again last week for the fourth time in five weeks and has six TD on the year.

Frank Gore (RB, IND) - This game may be more of a slugfest than a shootout that the Colts prefer. Gore will be leaned on heavily, but it may not result in great stats. The Vikings allow the ninth-fewest fantasy PPG to running backs this year. It will take another trip to the end zone for Gore to produce value, but he still plays out as an RB2 in most leagues.