Week 14 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

December 15, 2020

Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Lynn Bowden Jr., KJ Hamler, Jared Cook and more.

Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield finished as the top two quarterbacks in fantasy football this week after getting into a 89-point shootout. Aaron Rodgers had another big week, tossing three touchdown passes and running for another. Tua Tagovailoa and Derek Carr landed inside the top-five as the Raiders and Dolphins both needed to play catch up, while Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen all finished inside the top-12 as expected. Tight end was actually fairly stable this week, with Travis Kelce and Mike Gesicki each topping 20 points.

Stefon Diggs was WR-1 in Week 14, turning 14 targets into 130 yards and a touchdown. Deebo Samuel exited early for the 49ers, which paved the way for another monster game from Brandon Aiyuk who had 10 catches for 119 yards off of 16 targets. T.Y. Hilton wasn't targeted heavily this week, but he continued to come through with 86 yards and two touchdowns.

Week 14 featured some massive performances from running backs. Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Mike Davis, Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb and David Montgomery each came through with at least 24 fantasy points.  Cam Akers started Week 14 off with 194 total yards, and he only managed to finish as RB-10 on the week. Now that Week 14 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Week 14 Stats: 28-of-48 passing, 316 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 6 carries, 24 yards, 1 TD

At one point in the third quarter, the Chiefs led by 20 points which caused the Dolphins to go with a pass-heavy approach. Week 14 was just the second time this season that Tua Tagovailoa put the ball in the air more than 30 times. The Chiefs cornerbacks are pretty good in coverage, but Tagovailoa was able to distribute the ball pretty well, targeting 11 different receivers with Lynn Bowden Jr. and Mike Gesicki leading the way as the Dolphins most effective options.

Bottom Line: The Dolphins were without Miles Gaskin and found themselves down early, which meant they really needed to abandon the running game, calling just 18 run plays compared to 49 pass plays. The Dolphins play the Patriots in Week 15, and given Bill Belichick's track record against rookie quarterbacks, you would be wise to avoid using Tagovailoa next week.

KJ Hamler, Denver Broncos

Week 14 Stats: 3 targets, 2 catches, 86 yards, 2 TD

KJ Hamler caught a 49-yard touchdown on the Broncos final offensive play of the game to seal the victory for the Broncos. Hamler played his normal compliment of 60.7% of the snaps but saw just three targets in the game.

Bottom Line: Hamler is a big-play threat but he's only caught more than five passes once this season and this 86-yard performance was a season-high for him. Hamler is a boom-or-bust flyer that should only be used if you're desperate, but he does have appeal in dynasty formats if he's still available.

Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 14 Stats: 12 targets, 7 catches, 67 yards, 1 TD

Keelan Cole played a season-high 85.9% of the Jaguars offensive snaps in Week 14. The Jaguars were trailing the entire day in their 21-point loss to the Titans and they needed to keep the ball in the air. James Robinson was effective on the ground, gaining 5.6 yards-per-carry but the Jaguars only handed it to him 12 times with the game falling out of reach early. Helping Cole's cause, Collin Johnson came back down to earth this week and saw just three targets.

Bottom Line: The Jaguars play against the Ravens in Week 15 which means it will be easier to throw than pass, but the Jaguars wide receivers will have difficult matchups against the talented Ravens defensive backs.

Lynn Bowden Jr., Miami Dolphins

Week 14 Stats: 1 carry, 2 yards, 9 targets, 7 catches, 82 yards

Prior to Week 14, Lynn Bowden Jr. failed to play 50% of the Dolphins offensive snaps in any game. In Week 14, the Dolphins were without Myles Gaskin and DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant were both banged up. As a result Bowden played 71.1% of the snaps and was heavily utilized.

Bottom Line: Bowden was asked to step up in Week 14 and he came through. Jakeem Grant will likely miss Week 15 due to injury and Bowden will avoid Stephon Gilmore in coverage against the Patriots, making him an intriguing option this week.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

Week 14 Stats: 12 carries, 48 yards, 3 targets, 2 catches, 11 yards

This game was weird on many levels. The Cowboys absolutely dominated the Bengals in every facet of the game, but Ezekiel Elliott was barely involved from the start, and saw just one more carry than Tony Pollard who caught a touchdown. In the past, this would have been a prime spot for Elliott to carry the ball 25-plus times and rack up 150 yards rushing, likely busting off a long play against a worn down defense. However, 2020 has been a lost year for the Cowboys in general, Elliott hasn't run with all that much burst, the offensive line has been decimated by injury and Elliott has been ceding a lot of work to Tony Pollard.

Bottom Line: Zeke Elliott will be tough to trust for the remainder of 2020, but if these lackluster performances continue, he may be a bargain in 2021 fantasy drafts if he slips into the second round.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 14 Stats: 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 targets, 3 catches, 15 yards

Giovani Bernard fumbled on his first touch of the day and as a result he was benched for the remainder of the first half and played just 17 snaps (23.6%). This snap-share was Bernard's second lowest total of the season, the lowest coming in Week 4 when Joe Mixon dominated the Jaguars. In Bernard's absence, Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine carried the ball 22 times for 81 yards.

Bottom Line: The Bengals are very difficult to watch and it's tough trying to count on them for any fantasy production with Joe Burrow out of the lineup. It may have looked like Bernard was benched for fumbling in Week 14, but the Bengals may also be in evaluation mode and trying to get a longer look at Trayveon Williams. If that's the case, Bernard's days as a fantasy football asset may be over.

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints

Week 14 Stats: 4 targets, 3 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD

Jared Cook was on his way to a very disappointing performance in Week 14 until the unthinkable happened. First, while the Eagles were running out the clock late in the fourth quarter, Jalen Hurts fumbled and the Saints recovered it near midfield. Then, with just 1:24 left in the game, Taysom Hill threw the ball up to Cook who was able to muscle it away from the Eagles defender for a 20-yard touchdown. Cook's day was very close to being two catches for 17-scoreless yards.

Bottom Line: Jared Cook will not be a reliable fantasy tight end until Drew Brees returns to the lineup for the Saints. In four games with Hill at quarterback, Cook has just seven catches for 71 yards and two touchdowns.

Nick Vannett, Denver Broncos

Week 14 Stats: 4 targets, 4 catches, 20 yards, 1 TD

Noah Fant exited Week 14 after playing just five snaps against the Panthers. In his absence, Nick Vannett played a season-high 73.8% of the Broncos offensive snaps and Troy Fumagalli also got in on the action playing in a season-high 63.9% of the snaps. Fumagalli actually had one more target than Vannett and gained 53 yards.

Bottom Line: Noah Fant needed to leave the game on Sunday because he was ill, not because of an injury. Regardless, monitor his situation throughout the week, because if he misses Week 15, Vannett and Fumagalli will see more snaps. Fumagalli is actually a better pass-catcher than Vannett, so even though Vannett would likely play more snaps than him because of his run blocking ability, Fumagalli would offer more in the passing game, thus making him more appealing for fantasy purposes.

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