UEFA Euro 2024: Quarter-Finals - Predictions and Betting Picks

Jamie Steed's betting picks for the quarter-finals of the Euro 2024 tournament. He predicts the outcome of each match and picks out his favorite plays from the four games.

Happy Euro 2024, RotoBallers! We're down to the final eight. The second round had no shortage of drama with late goals, goalkeeping heroics, and the obligatory penalty shootout. Some of the pre-tournament favorites have yet to get going but are still only three wins away from glory.

After a three-year break, Euro 2024 coverage is back on RotoBaller. Our dedicated team is bringing you comprehensive coverage throughout the tournament. As well as our favorite bets, we are covering the fantasy game and the day-to-day action of DFS.

Today, we have the best plays for the quarter-finals, including a prediction for each of the four fixtures. Don't miss out on our extensive Euro 2024 coverage. You can access all of our Euro 2024 coverage here on RotoBaller.

Introduction

Just a bit of housekeeping before we begin.

I'll be using a unit-based system. You can play whatever you want. Each bet will have up to 10 units placed on it. Ten units show the highest confidence level I have on a bet and one is my least confident.

We're using multiple sportsbooks to bring you the best odds for each bet. If you are new to any of these sportsbooks, be sure to take advantage of their promo offers. Otherwise, use the sportsbook(s) you already use. Most of them will offer the same bet types as we have listed below.

With only four games on the slate, we'll pick our favorite one or two plays for each game. We'll also look at parlaying some picks at the end.

Unless otherwise stated, bets do not include extra time or penalty shootouts.

Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose. Good luck with your Euro 2024 bets. Just remember to bet responsibly!

Friday, July 5, 2024

Spain (+170) vs. Germany (+180) - noon EDT

Score Prediction: Spain 2 - 2 Germany

The host came into the Euros with little expectations but now finds themselves within touching distance of a fourth European Championship. Their 10 goals are more than any other nation at the tournament. Spain's nine goals scored are second most and the two sides have only conceded three goals between them.

While they have both impressed defensively, both sides' strength lies in their attacking play. Spain is a slight favorite but the home fans might help spur on Germany and we should be in for an exciting encounter. They both have players available off the bench to change the game and find a goal in the latter stages if they need to. So, backing both teams to score will be our biggest play.

Both teams to score - Yes
FanDuel -136 (7 units)

Total goals - Over 2.5
DraftKings +105 (3 units)

We'll also make a play on a couple of players who have lit up the tournament. Jamal Musiala is the tournament's joint top-scorer with three goals. While Spain's Fabian Ruiz has scored twice in the three games he's played in. Musiala has had a shot on target in each of his four appearances while he has seen five of his 11 shots hit the target.

Jamal Musiala and Fabian Ruiz to have one or more shots on target
FanDuel +353 (2 units)

Jamal Musiala joins Georges Mikautadze as the top goalscorer at EURO 2024, with 3 goals. 👏#GERDEN #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/B42RcJpWIg

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) June 29, 2024

Portugal (+250) vs. France (+145) - 3:00 p.m. EDT

Score Prediction: Portugal 0 - 1 France

Neither team has demonstrated its capabilities at the tournament. France has yet to have one of its players score from open play. Two own goals and one penalty have been enough for the pre-tournament favorites. The French have been solid defensively with only one goal conceded. After scoring five goals in its first two games, Portugal has blanked in its last two matches. France looks likely to edge what will be a close game.

Team to go through - France
BetMGM -143 (7 units)

Moneyline - France
BetMGM +145 (3 units)

The two nations met in the group stage at the last Euros. The game ended 2-2, but three of the goals came from the penalty spot. It may need a spot-kick or a moment of magic to win this one. They both have a striker capable of that. Kylian Mbappe's only goal came from the penalty spot, despite having 14 shots in three games so far. Only Cristiano Ronaldo has taken more shots (19) and his obsession to score against Slovenia almost cost his side.

Ronaldo was intent on shooting at every opportunity, including free kicks from almost impossible locations to score from. He will need to have a dramatically different performance and it's difficult to see him setting aside his ego and obsession to score a goal at the tournament. Both of them to have at least three shots in this game looks good value given their desire to show off their undoubted abilities.

Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappe both to have 3+ shots
FanDuel +148 (3 units)

Cristiano Ronaldo has now taken 18 non-penalty shots at #Euro2024 - more than any other player - after attempting six tonight (including four direct free kicks)

But still no goal. pic.twitter.com/evvjR8GS0i

— StatsBomb (@StatsBomb) July 1, 2024

Saturday, July 6, 2024

England (+125) vs. Switzerland (+300) - noon EDT

Score Prediction: England 2 - 0 Switzerland

Despite a quartet of abject performances, England finds itself the favorite for this game and the tournament. That's largely down to the draw being kind to it. However, Switzerland should not be disregarded. It comprehensively dispatched Italy (albeit a poor Italian side) and has now scored seven goals in its four games. It drew with host Germany in the group stage, so it won't be overawed by the task at hand.

This choice is purely down to one thing I've learned about watching England at major championships. Although it struggles in the early goings, it tends to pull out an impressive performance in the knockout stage before ultimately coming up short of winning a trophy. It did it at the last World Cup (a 3-0 win against Senegal), the 2018 World Cup (a 2-0 win against Sweden), and at the last Euros (a 4-0 win against Ukraine).

To win to nil - England
William Hill +210 (3 units)

One thing England tops the charts at is the joint-fewest corners conceded (seven). It has only taken 18 itself but the Swiss have only taken 20 corners and conceded 22. We'll play the corners handicap as even if England puts in another insipid performance, it should at least win the corners battle. England needed two goals from set pieces to overcome Slovakia and corners may provide it with its best opportunities to score on Saturday.

Most corners handicap - England -1
Fanduel +110 (5 units)

Highest rated teams remaining at #EURO2024

◎ 7.04 - Spain 🇪🇸
◎ 6.91 - Germany 🇩🇪
◎ 6.80 - Portugal 🇵🇹
◎ 6.80 - France 🇫🇷
◎ 6.74 - Netherlands 🇳🇱
◎ 6.67 - Türkiye 🇹🇷
◎ 6.65 - England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
◎ 6.63 - Switzerland 🇨🇭

The top four are all on the same side of the draw. 🍿 pic.twitter.com/hDNoutgkI9

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) July 3, 2024

Netherlands (-156) vs. Turkey (+480) - 3:00 p.m. EDT

Score Prediction: Netherlands 3 - 1 Turkey

This game is set to be the most open and entertaining of the weekend. Turkey's four games have produced 13 goals with at least three in all of them. The Netherlands have scored seven goals and conceded four, which includes a goalless draw with France. Turkey clung on to beat Austria and has been exposed defensively. The expected goals (xG) from its last games highlight the difference in performances.

The Dutch won't be as profligate in front of goal as Austria was and should be able to run out winners. That being said, Turkey has enough attacking firepower to cause a threat and this could be the highest-scoring game of the weekend.

Match result and three or more goals in the match - Netherlands
William Hill +138 (4 units)

Cody Gakpo became the joint top-scorer at the Euros when he opened the scoring against Romania. Only France has managed to keep Gakpo at bay and he's managed at least one shot on target in all four games. Seven of his 11 total shots have hit the target, showing a good level of proficiency in front of goal. Turkey will offer up chances throughout the game, so backing Gakpo to add to his tally at the odds being offered by BetMGM is appealing.

To score anytime - Cody Gakpo
BetMGM +215 (3 units)

Parlays and Specials

While Spain versus Germany looks like a coin flip as to who progresses, the other three ties I'm more confident in. So parlaying the trio to get through is my favored play.

Winner of tie - France, England, and Netherlands
William Hill +250 (3 units)

We'll play the projected total goals for each of the four games, too. At higher odds, this is a little more speculative as one uncontrollable incident (an early red card, etc.) can completely curtail it. But, the odds reflect that.

Spain/Germany over 2.5 goals, Portugal/France under 2.5 goals, England/Switzerland under 2.5 goals, and Netherlands/Turkey over 2.5 goals
FanDuel +741 (2 units)

Although not a parlay, taking the Netherlands to reach the final has plenty of appeal. It should be able to navigate its way past Turkey. It'll then fancy its chances in the semi-final, given England's form and Switzerland's lack of pedigree at that level. If it does go the distance, also playing Gakpo to top the scoring charts makes sense.

To reach the Final - Netherlands
DraftKings +180 (3 units)

Tournament top scorer - Cody Gakpo
BetMGM and DraftKings +450 (2 units)

🇳🇱 3 goals, 1 great assist in four games with Netherlands for Cody Gakpo at the Euros.

Fantastic again with the Dutch shirt after he scored 3 goals at the last World Cup. pic.twitter.com/O4gJormeFb

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) July 2, 2024

Stick around for more Euro 2024 content. Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on X @RotoBaller. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!