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Several high-profile pitcher injuries have hit early but we press on with my weekly top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. And many early-round pitchers with good health have had poor performances. It's a crazy world but we do our best to make sense of it with the second 2024 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
We are still trying not to overreact but there are some encouraging/discouraging signs rooted in velocity and pitch mixes. We'll wait until we emerge from small-sample territory to throw stats into the table beyond April. The intent is never to mislead with a waterfall of small-sample data so I present Ranking +/- from last week, Tier, Player, Rank, Market $ value, previous $ value (PV), and the trend between those two values.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. Last week, I included injury and minor-league stash leaderboards as well, but it doesn't change that often and isn't the primary focus for weekly changes. For now, let's dive into my top 101 healthy SPs and build a winner.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Corbin Burnes had a wonderful Tuesday and is now 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA (2.81 FIP) and sparkling 20:2 K:BB through three starts. Injuries to other top arms will make Burnes even more valuable. Zack Wheeler also has a 20:2 K:BB alongside a 1.89 ERA (2.29 FIP) but is 0-2 across his three outings. Alas, baseball can be fickle.
-Tyler Glasnow’s upside was on full display against the Twins as Tuesday’s start supplied 14 strikeouts over seven shutout frames. He scattered three meaningless hits and walked none in the win. We’d only gotten 15 Ks through 17 IP going into this but now 29 in 24 IP looks more Glasnow-ian. Do note his .173 BABIP will surely regress so have mercy and remember these nights are why you spent a high pick.
-George Kirby is starting to frighten folks so let’s take a lap. His first start against Boston was incredible (6 ⅔ IP, 0 ER, 4 H+BB, 8 K) but he’s now surrendered 11 total runs in his last two turns against Cleveland and Toronto. There’s some rotten luck (6.91 ERA vs. 2.96 FIP) but Kirby has struggled to put away hitters. Most would accept a couple more walks if it meant he induced more whiffs, but it’s doubtful he’ll retool his entire approach just yet. He faces the Reds at home next.
Of the 30 pitches George Kirby threw with two strikes tonight, he got just 1 swing and miss with 12 foul balls, two called strikes, four balls and 11 balls in play -- including four hits. pic.twitter.com/1KjRe9jWBe
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) April 10, 2024
-Luis Castillo, Kirby’s teammate, seems to have a similar thing going on. Through three starts, Castillo has a whopping .451 BABIP and a measly 8.2% swinging-strike rate. The ace isn’t issuing many free passes (5.3% BB) but any halfway mistake is getting tagged, especially by left-handed bats.
LHB have a 1.250 OPS (39 batters faced) while RHB are failing as usual, sporting a .611 OPS (36 BF). Lefties typically hit him a little better but this is ridiculous, so expect better form there moving forward. His overall 6.89 ERA covers up a 3.36 FIP and 3.48 SIERA. Back in 2021, Castillo posted a 6.29 April ERA before a whopping 8.04 ERA in May before recovering SP1 form. That narrative is rearing again, but April was his best month last year. He gets another tough test at home against the Cubs on Sunday.
-Shota Imanaga handled the Dodgers well, allowing just two hits over four scoreless innings before rain knocked him out early. The 30-year-old has faced two extremes in the road Rockies and the Dodgers, yet he handled both as if they were…well, the Rockies. No, a .174 BABIP and 0% BB rate will not last, but the 16.8% swinging-strike rate and the early wave of confidence are extremely encouraging. Fly balls at Wrigley when the weather warms could be troublesome, but we’ll enjoy the present moment.
-Jared Jones continues to look like a veteran on the bump and has enough innings in the chamber to be a fantasy force throughout much of 2024. Hopefully, Pittsburgh doesn’t stunt his innings if a playoff push appears on the horizon.
-A pair of nice bounce-backs from Michael King and Ryan Pepiot. King had walked 10 in his first 7 ⅓ IP of 2024 but then threw seven innings with just one walk and zero runs allowed. His early whiff rate is down but we won’t overcorrect given one good start in the fold. Pepiot got torched by Texas and then went to Coors and put up a historic whoopin’ with 11 Ks and no walks over six pristine innings. This is the upside we’re after.
Ryan Pepiot is the FIRST opponent
at Coors Field to have a scoreless outing with 0 BB and 10+ KsThe only other instances, done by Rockies pitchers?
Germán Márquez (7/31/2019)
Jon Gray (9/17/2016)— Jason Catania (@JayCat11) April 7, 2024
-A.J. Puk isn’t long for Miami’s rotation at this rate. The promising southpaw battled a tough Yankee team on Tuesday, giving up one earned run on four hits and five walks (!) over 4 ⅔ IP. He’s now 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA (6.89 FIP) and disgusting 8:14 K:BB in 10 ⅔ IP. Puk’s incredible spring performance feels like a fever dream from a decade ago. Braxton Garrett’s return could shift Puk back to the bullpen.
-Spencer Turnbull has had two phenomenal appearances in 2024 and should stave off Taijuan Walker for the No. 5 rotation spot even when Walker is healthy. Turnbull limited the Cardinals to a pair of hits and one walk over six innings with a deep pitch arsenal. He’s majority four-seamer/sweeper now but with tricks up his sleeve. The 70% first-strike rate shows controlled aggression that sets the table for the at-bat. Let’s see how batters adjust but this is promising.
Spencer Turnbull throwing some absolute banger sweepers.
Averaging 83 mph, 4.5" vertical break, 18" sweep. 👀
Still has his old slider, classification calling them all sweepers right now. #Phillies pic.twitter.com/3EaxpAe0Ip
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) April 3, 2024
-Both Framber Valdez and Nick Pivetta fall off into the injury void, which we will periodically include, but each of their teams says they’re expecting minimal IL stays. I don’t have faith in that when it comes to elbow injuries for a pitcher, but it is a markedly different tone than most other early SP injuries that have ravaged us.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 1 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 1 | $44.00 | 43 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 2 | $43.00 | 42 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 2 | Pablo Lopez | 3 | $42.00 | 41 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 4 | $41.00 | 37 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 2 | Tarik Skubal | 5 | $41.00 | 36.5 | 4.5 ▲ |
| -2 | 2 | George Kirby | 6 | $39.00 | 41 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 2 | Luis Castillo | 7 | $36.50 | 35 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 2 | Logan Webb | 8 | $35.00 | 35 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -3 | 2 | Kevin Gausman | 9 | $37.00 | 39 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 2 | Freddy Peralta | 10 | $35.00 | 34 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 2 | Cole Ragans | 11 | $34.00 | 33 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 3 | Bobby Miller | 12 | $34.00 | 34 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 3 | Zach Eflin | 13 | $33.00 | 31 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 3 | Max Fried | 14 | $30.00 | 31 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 15 | $30.00 | 29 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 16 | $29.50 | 28.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Grayson Rodriguez | 17 | $29.50 | 28.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 18 | $29.00 | 26 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Joe Ryan | 19 | $26.00 | 25 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Logan Gilbert | 20 | $26.00 | 23.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 4 | Chris Sale | 21 | $25.00 | 21 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 7 | 4 | Shota Imanaga | 22 | $24.00 | 19.5 | 4.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Dylan Cease | 23 | $23.50 | 23 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 4 | Blake Snell | 24 | $21.00 | 21 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 4 | Tanner Bibee | 25 | $20.50 | 20.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 5 | 4 | Joe Musgrove | 26 | $20.00 | 19 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -3 | 4 | Jesus Luzardo | 27 | $20.00 | 24 | -4.0 ▼ |
| N/A | 4 | Sonny Gray | 28 | $20.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 3 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 29 | $19.50 | 18 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 4 | Michael King | 30 | $19.00 | 17 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 10 | 4 | Jared Jones | 31 | $19.00 | 15 | 4.0 ▲ |
| -2 | 5 | Bailey Ober | 32 | $18.00 | 19 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 2 | 5 | Chris Bassitt | 33 | $17.00 | 17 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 5 | Merrill Kelly | 34 | $17.00 | 17 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 5 | Cristian Javier | 35 | $17.00 | 16 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 36 | $16.50 | 15 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 5 | Ryan Pepiot | 37 | $15.50 | 14.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 5 | Bryce Miller | 38 | $15.00 | 14 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 7 | 5 | Jordan Montgomery | 39 | $15.00 | 13.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 5 | Kutter Crawford | 40 | $15.00 | 13.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 6 | 5 | Garrett Crochet | 41 | $15.00 | 13.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -3 | 5 | Cristopher Sanchez | 42 | $15.00 | 15.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 6 | 5 | Aaron Civale | 43 | $15.00 | 12 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -11 | 6 | Hunter Brown | 44 | $14.50 | 17 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 6 | Carlos Rodon | 45 | $14.50 | 14.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 6 | Jose Berrios | 46 | $13.50 | 13 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 6 | Jack Flaherty | 47 | $13.00 | 11 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 6 | Hunter Greene | 48 | $12.00 | 10.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 6 | Brayan Bello | 49 | $11.00 | 10 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 7 | Brandon Pfaadt | 50 | $10.50 | 10 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 7 | Luis Gil | 51 | $10.00 | 10 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 6 | 7 | Reid Detmers | 52 | $10.00 | 9 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 12 | 7 | Reynaldo Lopez | 53 | $10.00 | 8 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 13 | 7 | Garrett Whitlock | 54 | $10.00 | 8 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 11 | 7 | Jordan Hicks | 55 | $9.50 | 8 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 7 | Charlie Morton | 56 | $9.00 | 9.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 5 | 7 | MacKenzie Gore | 57 | $8.50 | 6 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -7 | 6 | Triston McKenzie | 58 | $8.50 | 10.5 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -5 | 7 | Mitch Keller | 59 | $8.50 | 10 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 10 | 7 | Casey Mize | 60 | $8.00 | 5 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 10 | 7 | Marcus Stroman | 61 | $8.00 | 4.5 | 3.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 7 | Yusei Kikuchi | 62 | $8.00 | 6 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 10 | 8 | Tanner Houck | 63 | $7.00 | 4.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 27 | 8 | Ronel Blanco | 64 | $6.00 | 1.5 | 4.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 8 | Nestor Cortes | 65 | $6.00 | 5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 7 | Reese Olson | 66 | $6.00 | 4.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 7 | 8 | Zack Littell | 67 | $5.50 | 4.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 9 | 8 | Seth Lugo | 68 | $5.50 | 4 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 8 | Gavin Stone | 69 | $5.50 | 6 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 5 | 8 | Sean Manaea | 70 | $5.00 | 4 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 8 | 8 | Michael Wacha | 71 | $5.00 | 3.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 8 | Erick Fedde | 72 | $4.50 | 4 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -14 | 8 | Louie Varland | 73 | $4.50 | 8.5 | -4.0 ▼ |
| -13 | 8 | Luis Severino | 74 | $4.50 | 7 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -15 | 8 | Kyle Harrison | 75 | $4.00 | 8 | -4.0 ▼ |
| 7 | 8 | Brady Singer | 76 | $4.00 | 2.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 8 | DL Hall | 77 | $4.00 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 9 | James Paxton | 78 | $3.50 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 9 | Tyler Wells | 79 | $3.50 | 3 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 10 | 9 | Ranger Suarez | 80 | $3.00 | 1.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 9 | Max Meyer | 81 | $3.00 | 3 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 9 | Dean Kremer | 82 | $2.50 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 9 | Frankie Montas | 83 | $2.50 | 2 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 9 | Clarke Schmidt | 84 | $2.00 | 2 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 14 | 9 | Jordan Wicks | 85 | $2.00 | 1 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 9 | Lance Lynn | 86 | $2.00 | 2 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 9 | Logan Allen | 87 | $2.00 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 10 | Dane Dunning | 88 | $1.50 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 4 | 10 | Trevor Rogers | 89 | $1.50 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Spencer Turnbull | 90 | $1.50 | N/A | N/A |
| -23 | 10 | A.J. Puk | 91 | $1.50 | 5.5 | -4.0 ▼ |
| 4 | 10 | Ryan Weathers | 92 | $1.50 | 1 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 10 | Kenta Maeda | 93 | $1.50 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 23 | 10 | Paul Blackburn | 94 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 6 | 10 | Javier Assad | 95 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 10 | J.P. France | 96 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 16 | 10 | Graham Ashcraft | 97 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Jose Soriano | 98 | $1.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 5 | 10 | Tyler Anderson | 99 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 10 | Steven Matz | 100 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 10 | Keaton Winn | 101 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
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