RADIO
Spencer Aguiar dives into the dos and dont's if you are trying to capture the green jacket. Dive into his model with him to help eliminate the field one player at a time.
Welcome back to the seventh iteration of my now award-winning Seven Deadly Sins article here at RotoBaller. I am very proud that this article was one of the leading proponents of my FSWA nomination and eventual win earlier in the year. I can't thank everyone enough for making this the most-read article I produce yearly.
As we always talk about in this piece, the history at Augusta tells more than just a story since it helps to figure out who might be able to grab the green jacket. You can tune into any article or podcast this week and see how the venue ranks as the most predictable course on tour regarding rollover success rate. Most of that aspect stems from the wide-open nature of the grounds that will possess diabolical green complexes at all turns. However, the fact that Augusta is the only major championship track to occur at the exact location yearly adds to this predictive nature, allowing a formularized blueprint for projected win equity to be measured.
Let's examine the sins that have prevented the last six years' worth of non-winners and see if we can't keep the streak of narrowing down the eventual champion running for its seventh straight season.
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The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta In 2025?
Sin #1 - Envy - A feeling of discontented or resentful longing aroused by someone else's possessions, qualities, or luck.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Over The Age of 45
This category has essentially become the "past champion" portion of how we start the elimination process.
Augusta is a grueling venue that demands players to be physically and mentally at their best, which hurts most on this list.
It doesn't help that 99% of these names wouldn't qualify yearly without their past victories. Think of this as the last swan song for countless years until players stop wanting to compete. You can see that gap starting at 45 with Sergio Garcia and stopping with Bernhard Langer at 67.
Players Eliminated In This Section: 10
Players Still Standing: 86
Sin #2 - Lust - A powerful desire or hunger for something.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Who Won't Be Making At Least Their Third Appearance At Augusta
We just discussed the detrimental nature of old age in someone's quest to capture the green jacket. Here, the reverse end of that spectrum rears its ugly head when we talk about youthful inexperience.
A first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and it typically takes a few showings to get accustomed to the undulation of the greens.
If there were two outliers in the group, they would likely stem directly from Wyndham Clark and Ludvig Aberg.
You don't often get a former major winner who will be making just his second Masters appearance in Clark's position. Is the recent form return enough to undo a mostly uninspiring season in other aspects? I don't know. However, if we exclude all non-Masters answers within the sins (appearances + best finish at Augusta), he would qualify in the other areas.
Aberg's profile will have similar pros and cons. His distance and near-victory at his inaugural appearance last season could go a long way, but it is worth noting that no Masters champion has missed the cut leading into the week since 2009. When I added that to a shaky around-the-green game, there were enough data points that he didn't match to feel comfortable eliminating him.
Players Eliminated In This Section: 33
Players Still Standing: 53
Sin #3 - Sloth - A habitual disinclination to exertion.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Ranked Outside The Top-50 Compared to the Field in Driving Distance
A lack of distance off the tee is a troubling outlook.
While length is not the only deciding quality if you want to succeed at Augusta, it does hurt someone's upside potential if they can't crack the top 50 names in a sub-100 person field regarding pure driving distance.
I backtested high-end distance totals for all golfers who didn't qualify to see if there was a way to generate a top-50 return in expectation. Collin Morikawa and Russell Henley survived in this area when diving into distance produced at wide-open tests because of the added length we did get from each name.
For what it is worth, Patrick Reed experienced a similar answer when he captured this title in 2018. There is a chance he may have been able to salvage it again in 2025, but there is very little I could do with the lack of recent data points I have for all LIV golfers.
Players Eliminated In This Section: 12
Players Still Standing: 41
Sin #4 - Wrath - A strong vengeful anger or indignation.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field Around the Green
Did you miss a green in regulation and not have the temperament to solve your initial mistake?
There are too many places for players to find trouble, which will show quickly if your short game falters for any reason.
I feel somewhat safe in eliminating Dustin Johnson, Jhontthan Vegas, Cameron Young and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Those four names are entering the week in sub-par or unknown form.
I am less confident in removing Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris for two core reasons.
- Hovland tends to see an increase in his upside when he can hit putts from off the surface. Augusta's complex allows him to use creativity to solve some issues.
- Zalatoris has consistently demonstrated a safer floor on these quick-moving greens.
Zalatoris still gets eliminated when looking into 'Aggresion,' although Hovland does survive to the end otherwise.
Players Eliminated In This Section: 6
Players Still Standing: 35
Sin #5 - Gluttony - An overindulgence or habitual greed.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Three-Putt Avoidance
Taking on too much risk and not playing things safe in this area has been known to unravel the best players in the world.
Consider this a similar sin to what we just discussed regarding wrath, but mistakes can and will add up quickly if you don't eat your food as medicine.
While we have discussed all the potential options that could end the streak from within this article of narrowing down the winner, this might very well be where the culprit lands.
We will get to the Rory McIlroy portion of this conversation in a second since his name is the most glaring removal yet. Still, options like Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Joaquin Niemann are even more significant in many ways since their failure to qualify has a lot to do with shaky LIV data that could be flawed. I don't feel super confident with any of the metrics I have from any of those options.
On the other hand, McIlroy has suffered the same detriment in this category five of the seven times I have constructed this article. 2023 and 2024 were the only seasons for him to land top 50 when entering the week for three-putt avoidance. I know his form his better than we have ever seen it entering Augusta, but a red flag metric is still looming.
Players Eliminated In This Section: 12
Players Still Standing: 23
Sin #6 - Pride - A consciousness of one's own dignity.
Who The Sin Affects:
Players Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field In Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage + Aggression
Too much pride won't allow risk-taking because of the potential for failure.
The property's four par-fives are the most accessible holes, and you can't afford to miss out on scoring opportunities.
When discussing winning a golf tournament in America, this has historically been the killer Tommy Fleetwood category. Maybe the form that Fleetwood and Shane Lowry are showing entering the week will allow more aggression, but without it, another disappointing top 10 is what the ceiling may become for the week.
Players Eliminated In This Section: 4
Players Still Standing: 19
Sin #7 - Greed - An intense and selfish desire for something, especially wealth or power.
Who The Sin Affects:
Someone Who Hasn't Posted A Top-30 Result at the Venue during one of their last three attempts
*** I am adding a second answer to this: a player must have a top-30 performance during one of their last three starts on any tour during that season.
If you haven't posted a top-30 at Augusta during the past three attempts, why would you believe you will turn things around during one of the most predictable venues on tour? The same answer comes into play for current form since the backtesting I have done since 2016 demonstrated every winner had provided a top-30 within three starts entering the week.
For the first time in the history of this article, results are too close to call for someone.
Sam Burns failure to post a top-30 at the Valero Open will also eliminate him from contention. I will keep him as an option that survived for now, but let's see how he wraps things up in Teas.
Players Eliminated In This Section: 3
Players Still Standing: 16
Who Is Left Standing?
We typically are left between nine and 13 golfers during most renditions of this article, so the fact that we have 16 (with Burns still included) might tell a story of this being a more wide-open Masters Tournament than I have covered for this write-up.
Here are the names who survived...“I shall purge them of their evils, and I shall not remember their sins again.”
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