Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Something or Nothing?

October 5, 2021

Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Randall Cobb, John Ross, A.J. Dillon, and more.

Week 4 of the NFL season is now in the books and as expected Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray all performed very well finishing as QB1's. Matt Ryan shredded Washington's struggling defense and in the same game, Taylor Heinicke threw three touchdowns to finish as QB-5 on the week. Don't look now but Sam Darnold was QB-1 in Week 4 on the heels of two rushing scores and now sits at QB-5 on the season. Tight end was absolutely brutal this week with Travis Kelce, George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson all finishing outside the top-10. Instead, C.J. Uzomah was TE-1, Dawson Knox was TE-2 off of two scores, Mo Allie-Cox had two touchdowns as TE-3 and Dalton Schultz continued his ascent to fantasy football greatness.

Tyreek Hill (WR-1) busted out for 186 yards and three scores and Deebo Samuel made the Seahawks pay with a 76-yard touchdown on a busted coverage to finish as WR-2. D.J. Moore was a bit of a surprise at WR-3 because Trevon Diggs was supposed to be on him for much of the game but Moore was not slowed at all and showed us that he's a true stud. Randall Cobb, Kalif Raymond and Van Jefferson were the biggest surprise-WR1's.

Ladies and gentlemen, Cordarrelle Patterson scored three touchdowns off of 11 touches and finished as RB-1 on the week, let that sink in. Saquon Barkley came through with two scores of his own, Derrick Henry touched the ball 35 times as he normally does, Austin Ekeler dominated the Raiders, David Montgomery went over 100 yards on the ground and Ezekiel Elliott had 143 yards and a score to round out the top-six at running back. James Conner saw a season-high 18 carries and scored twice to crack the top-10 which was a little unexpected and Kenneth Gainwell was a touchdown-vulture, finishing as RB-12 in surprising fashion. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 4 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers

Week 4 Stats: 26-of-39 passing, 301 yards, 2 TD, 6 carry, 35 yards, 2 TD

Sam Darnold has the sixth-most rushing attempts among all quarterbacks with 20, just three less than Kyler Murray. Darnold is also leading all quarterbacks with five rushing touchdowns. If you watch Darnold when he takes off running, he's not bailing from plays prematurely. Most of the time when Darnold takes off it seems like the entire defense has their back turned so takes what he's given. Darnold has just five touchdown passes which is two less than Jared Goff and just one more than Zach Wilson, but he's getting it done with his legs so it's working out for him.

Bottom Line: Sam Darnold has a decent matchup against the Eagles in Week 5 and a very good matchup against the Vikings in Week 6 so it should be safe to keep using him in the short term.

Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers

Week 4 Stats: 6 targets, 5 catches, 69 yards, 2 TD

Heading into Week 4's matchup against the Steelers Randall Cobb had not played more than 33% of the Packers offensive snaps. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and his usual 65%-snap share missed Week 4 which meant Randall Cobb saw a slight uptick in playing time, logging 45.8% of the Packers offensive snaps. Cobb still played less snaps than Allen Lazard and was third on the team with six targets behind Davante Adams (11) and Robert Tonyan (7).

Bottom Line: Aaron Rodgers was looking for Cobb in the middle of the field and was able to get him the ball so he could do some damage after the catch. Once Valdes-Scantling returns to the lineup Cobb's playing time should go back down so he won't have a lot of appeal. That being said, Cobb is a decent receiver playing in a good offense because Aaron Rodgers can light a defense up at a moments notice. This makes Cobb a decent option if you're desperate, but only if you're desperate.

John Ross, N.Y. Giants

Week 4 Stats: 4 targets, 3 catches, 77 yards, 1 TD

John Ross was active for the first time in 2021 and played 44.4% of the Giants offensive snaps. The former first-round pick was able to haul in a 52-yard touchdown from Daniel Jones which netted 12.2 of his 16.7 fantasy points. While Ross led all Giants wide receivers in fantasy points he was fifth in the targets pecking order behind Saquon Barkley (6), Evan Engram (6), Kenny Golladay (7) and Kadarius Toney (9).

Bottom Line: John Ross played less than 50% of the Giants offensive snaps with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out of the lineup. It's hard to envision John Ross continuing to do anything relevant down the stretch, especially with Shepard and Slayton slated to return. In my opinion Kadarius Toney is the Giants receiver to keep an eye on. John Ross is like a more volatile and more injury prone version of DeSean Jackson, so just let him stay on the waiver wire.

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 4 Stats: 1 carry, 11 yards, 7 targets, 6 catches, 99 yards

Laviska Shenault saw his usual complement of snaps and targets in Week 4 against the Bengals but he did have a decent matchup out of the slot which played in his favor. Once D.J. Chark went down with a broken ankle Trevor Lawrence began looking for Shenault downfield more which led to a 52-yard catch.

Bottom Line: Shenault has been playing a decent amount and getting targets so far this season, but most of his targets have been around the line of scrimmage. Now that D.J. Chark is out for the remainder of the season Shenault should see some deeper looks which will mean larger gains and help his week-to-week outlook.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Week 4 Stats: 3 targets, 3 catches, 63 yards

In Week 4 Allen Robinson saw just three targets compared to seven for Darnell Mooney. Neither Mooney or Robinson had a difficult matchup in this contest, but it's clear that Justin Fields isn't ready to be a high-volume passer and Robinson's production is suffering because of it. Through four weeks Robinson is second among Bears receivers with 24 targets behind Mooney who has 26.

Bottom Line: You really need to consider benching Allen Robinson if you have another viable option on your roster, at least until Andy Dalton is able to return from injury. Robinson will see coverage from Casey Hayward in Week 5 which is concerning even if he did have competent quarterback play.

Van Jefferson, L.A. Rams

Week 4 Stats: 6 targets, 6 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD

Van Jefferson played 67.6% of the Rams offensive snaps in Week 4 which is about on par with his season average of 76.23%. Jefferson is a very good receiver and his good game wasn't because he saw any sort of expanded role in place of Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods who each played their normal compliment of snaps. Rather, it seemed like Stafford had told hold on to the ball for a while at times because his first reads were not open and Jefferson was able to get open as the play developed.

Bottom Line: Van Jefferson should not be in your starting lineup on a weekly basis, but he may be viable again in Week 5 because the Rams play the Seahawks who have had their own troubles covering opposing wide receivers.

Alex Collins, Seattle Seahawks

Week 4 Stats: 10 carries, 44 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 2 catches 34 yards

Alex Collins played a season-high 22 snaps (39.3%) in Week 4 against the 49ers and touched the ball on more than half of the those snaps. Chris Carson played just 44.6% of the snaps which marked the second week in a row that Carson played less than half of the Seahawks plays.

Bottom Line: Chris Carson injured his leg in Week 3 against the Vikings and saw a reduced role this week as a result. Monitor Carson's practice status leading up to Week 5 because if he's limited Collins will likely see a near-50% workload in the offense as he did in Week 4. While Collins may see a decent workload in Week 5 the Seahawks play a stingy Rams team that's pretty solid against the run which makes him somewhat of a desperation play in the short-term.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

Week 4 Stats: 15 carries, 81 yards, 1 target, 1 catch, 16 yards

After playing 29.2%-or-less of the Packers offensive snaps through the first three weeks of the season A.J. Dillon played a season-high 40.3% of the snaps in Week 4 as the Packers pounded the ball late in the game to finish off the Steelers.

Bottom Line:  Week 4 set up extremely well for Dillon because the Packers had the game well in hand and simply used Dillon to grind out the clock. Barring an injury to Aaron Jones, Dillon will remain touchdown or game script dependent. Things worked out for Dillon this week, but the Packers play the 3-1 Bengals next week which may prove to be a stiffer test.

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Week 4 Stats: 8 targets, 5 catches, 37 yards, 2 TD

After back-to-back solid performances Dawson Knox stands as TE-5 on the season. Knox leads all tight ends with four touchdowns, but he is just the 13th-most targeted tight end in the league with 20. Through four weeks Knox has established himself as the fourth target in the Bills passing game behind Stefon Diggs (41), Cole Beasley (32) and Emmanuel Sanders (26).

Bottom Line: Tight end is a tough position to navigate as only three have 30-or-more targets on the season and only six have eclipsed 200 yards receiving. Knox may be a little touchdown-dependent, but so are most other tight ends. Knox plays in a high-powered passing offense led by Josh Allen and has the potential to come through any given week, so you should feel comfortable starting him moving forward.

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