Superflex Fantasy Football Busts? Overvalued Quarterbacks for 2026 Drafts

June 27, 2026

Nathan's superflex fantasy football busts, avoids, fades - overvalued quarterbacks to consider fading for Superflex (2QB) league drafts in 2026 fantasy football.

In Superflex formats, quarterbacks are the most important position in fantasy football lineups, and getting multiple great players at that position can skyrocket your team, even if the skill positions are weak.

However, if you bust on one of your two quarterback slots in your fantasy draft, it’s much harder to compete for a fantasy title. While in 1QB leagues, you can draft a quarterback who has a bad year, find a new one, and be totally fine. You cannot afford to miss one in Superflex because it's so hard to replace.

With that being said, here are four quarterbacks to avoid in Superflex formats in 2026.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has had incredible seasons throughout his NFL career, but his production took a step backward in 2025. He could legitimately be the league's MVP in any given year. Still, the combination of injury concerns, declining rushing production, and a weaker supporting cast makes him an avoid at his current price.

After a historic 2024 campaign in which he recorded over 5,000 scrimmage yards and 45 touchdowns, Jackson regressed in 2025. In 13 games, the two-time MVP threw for 2,549 yards, 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, and was ineffective on the ground.

He posted career lows in rushing attempts per game (5.2), rushing yards per game (26.8), and rushing touchdowns (two). Jackson averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game, ranking as the QB16 on a per-game basis; however, it got ugly late in the season.

After Week 10, Jackson averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game, ranking 30th among quarterbacks during that span behind the likes of Marcus Mariota, J.J. McCarthy, and Justin Fields.

Things didn’t improve much this offseason; in fact, it got worse. They lost starting center Tyler Linderbaum and tight end Isaiah Likely, and added two rookie receivers in the middle rounds of the draft. Their offensive line ranked near the top of the NFL in the past three seasons and now has concerns after losing the three-time Pro Bowl center Linderbaum.

Bengals get a pick right back!

BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/n6QsXFyF0w

— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025

Jackson is incredible and one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL, but injuries are mounting. In Superflex leagues, you can’t lose your QB1 to injury. He’s missed significant time in three of the last five seasons due to knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries.

This could look foolish at the end of 2026, given how good Jackson truly is, but you're spending a top-5 pick in Superflex formats to draft an injury-plagued running quarterback who hasn't been running as much as in recent seasons.

He also has a lackluster receiver corps, a regressing offensive line, and is coming off the worst eight-game stretch of his career. It’s hard to rationalize that as an early first-round pick in 2QB leagues.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

After a disappointing season that was cut short by a torn ACL, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has finally seen his draft value drop heading into 2026. The decline is noticeable for the best quarterback of the 2020s, but it hasn’t dropped enough to risk another mediocre fantasy campaign for Mahomes.

Since 2023, Mahomes has averaged 254.3 passing yards per game and has tallied 73 touchdowns and 36 interceptions in 46 games. His last three fantasy finishes have been QB11, QB11, and QB8, despite being drafted as a top-5 quarterback.

The main reason Mahomes had a good 2025 fantasy season was his rushing production. He had 422 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games, the best rushing numbers of his career.

After a torn ACL ended his season early, it’s hard to fathom that he will regain that production in 2026. Other quarterbacks who suffered ACL tears include Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Joe Burrow, all of whom saw declines in rushing yards per game and touchdowns the following season.

Now he has to rely on his passing once again, and while it’s possible he can catapult his way back to the elite production of his first five seasons, his recent production suggests it’s unlikely. From 2018 to 2022, he averaged an elite 8.1 yards per attempt and a 6.5% touchdown rate.

From 2023 to 2025, he averaged only 6.9 yards per attempt and a touchdown percentage of 4.5%, which were around league average.

Unless he throws over 600 passes, Mahomes doesn’t have much of a chance to sniff a top-5 fantasy season. With the addition of Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III, the Chiefs will rely more on their ground game in 2026.

Right now, Mahomes’ fantasy value is sinking, and with the ACL recovery likely to hinder his rushing ability and the Chiefs likely heading toward a more run-heavy approach, avoid Mahomes despite the reasonable cost of QB13 in 2026.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been a solid option over the past four seasons, totaling over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns each year. He’s a great quarterback who led Detroit to places the franchise had never reached before, but as a fantasy quarterback, he offers much less.

Despite having 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns in each of the past four years, Goff has averaged over 18 fantasy points per game in just one of those seasons. The biggest reason is his lack of rushing production.

He has totaled 194 rushing yards in his last 68 games, fewer yards than 17 quarterbacks had just last season, and his average yards per game (2.85) is the least among all quarterbacks who played over 13 games in 2025.

His lack of rushing upside makes him incredibly volatile, and Goff has to rely heavily on passing efficiency and touchdown volume to have QB1 weeks.

Goff and the Lions have also lost a ton of pieces on the offensive line over the past two seasons. They lost Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler after the 2024 season, which contributed to Detroit’s regression in 2025. Goff was pressured 152 times last season, the most in his NFL career, and he only completed 50.8% of his passes under pressure.

MICAH PARSONS AGAIN ON 3RD AND GOAL 😤

GBvsDET on FOX/FOX One/Tubi
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/GKkP16fpDT

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2025

Now, they have lost left tackle Taylor Decker and guard/center Graham Glasgow. From 2024 to 2026, the only lineman remaining is superstar Penei Sewell, who is switching from right to left tackle this season.

Despite the offensive line concerns and lack of rushing, Goff is likely to continue producing good QB2 numbers, but will that win you fantasy championships? Unlikely, and it is definitely not worth the risks with the deteriorating offensive line.

Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza had one of the most impressive seasons by a college quarterback in recent history with the Indiana Hoosiers, leading them to their first national championship. He won the Heisman Trophy, became the talk of not only college football but all of sports, and was the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Unfortunately, instead of committing to him as the starter in his rookie season, the team signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a one-year, $20 million fully guaranteed contract. That’s starting-quarterback money for Cousins, who continues to dominate at the negotiating table.

Comp update: Kirk Cousins will sign a five-year, $172 million deal with the Raiders that in reality is a one-year, fully-guaranteed $20 million deal that also contains a club option for two years at $80M.

The Falcons will pay Cousins $8.7 million this season, the Raiders another… pic.twitter.com/MHYqOOfBs7

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 2, 2026

With Cousins likely to start in Week 1, it's hard to tell when Mendoza will take the field, which is scary from a fantasy perspective. Even when he does take the field, the situation is not ideal. Outside of running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers, the Raiders have significant questions at wide receiver and on their offensive line.

The receiver duo of Jalen Nailor and Tre Tucker ranks near the bottom of the league, and despite adding center Tyler Linderbaum, the Raiders made few meaningful improvements to an offensive line that struggled throughout 2025.

Past first overall picks have struggled during their rookie seasons, despite better situations. Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, and Bryce Young are quarterbacks who were drafted in the top three of the NFL Draft and averaged under 16 fantasy points per game during their rookie seasons.

The Raiders also have a very tough schedule for quarterbacks. They face the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers twice a year, as well as the Seahawks, Patriots, and the Los Angeles Rams, all of which ranked inside the top 12 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Even if Mendoza earns the starting job early, he is unlikely to become a reliable fantasy producer immediately. His lack of weapons, rushing upside, and the normal struggles of every rookie quarterback will make him an avoid in 2026.

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