MLB Hitter Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for Plate Discipline (Week 20)

August 22, 2022

Statcast batter leaders and fallers in Week 20 of the 2022 MLB season according to plate discipline (BB/K). Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Unless you play in a points league, you may not care enough about walks and strikeouts for hitters to dig into such metrics. I'm here to tell you that plate discipline is the foundation of a skilled hitter and it leads to fantasy baseball goodness.

This week, we'll take a gander at the BB/K leaders by focusing on second-half surgers who have turned things up a notch since the All-Star break. The stats listed below only include games played since July 21st.

After you're done here, check out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball at RotoBaller, including our weekly Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds articles each week.

Second-Half Plate Discipline Leaders

Notable Players

So J.P. Crawford just doesn't strike out. Good to know, but not good enough for roto leagues. He is making contact at an insane 92.4% clip in the past 114 plate appearances but it's so weak (84.5 avg. exit velocity) that it doesn't matter. He is hitting .257 on the season and that figure is down to .233 in the second half. The walks are great in deep points leagues but otherwise he can be ignored.

Lars Nootbaar is walking more than anyone not named Juan Soto since the break. But he's doing far more than that, sporting a .399 xwOBA in the second half, good for 14th-best in that span. Even better is a .442 OBP, seventh-best. He has become a five-category contributor, helping out with three HR, 13 RBI, two SB, 20 runs, and a .297 average in the past 100 PA.

In case you missed that last part, he has scored 20 times in the second half. He just went deep on Sunday afternoon, continuing his hot hitting ways. He ought to be rostered in far more than 10% of fantasy leagues by now.

Adley Rutschman is already displaying the type of outstanding plate discipline that made him worthy of the top overall pick in 2019. Rutschman has a walk rate in the 96th percentile as a rookie, contributing in large part to an 84th percentile xwOBA. At some point, he'll need to get more aggressive in order to help fantasy rosters. For now, enjoy the fact we could be seeing the development of the next Buster Posey.

Brendan Donovan is yet another Cardinal with outstanding plate discipline. He has an 88.2% Contact% and 12.7% BB%. Unlike Crawford, he is finding the gaps and hitting for a .297 AVG. There could be negative regression based on a .260 xBA, 52% GB%, and low exit velocity. He's mainly feasting off fastballs, which pitchers are happy to send his way as a non-power bat at the bottom of the order. Donovan is more useful in real-life for his versatility and can likewise be employed at almost any position in fantasy but he profiles more like Luis Arraez than anything.

Sean Murphy would look to be emerging as an offensive threat at the catcher position. But then the A's went ahead and promoted prospect Shea Langeliers to the majors. Funny thing is that it doesn't impact Murphy in any way.

On Sunday, the A's had three catchers in their starting lineup - Murphy at DH, Langeliers behind the plate, and Stephen Vogt at first base. That says a lot about the state of that offense. Murphy shouldn't see any reduction in at-bats down the stretch and may even perform better with less wear-and-tear on defense. Not known to hit for average much, he's batting .277 in the second half and has provided solid power with seven HR, 16 RBI. Don't let Langeliers scare you away from Murphy.

Sean Murphy ranks among AL catchers this year
• 3.4 WAR (1st)
• 43 extra base hits (1st)
• 172 total bases (1st)
• 50 runs scored (1st)
• 35 barrels (1st)
• 1.89 avg pop time (1st)
• 16 HR (t-2nd)
• 52 RBI (2nd)
• .775 OPS (2nd)
• 6.4 frame (2nd)pic.twitter.com/N0tdppIyNi

— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) August 18, 2022

Vinnie Pasquantino has lived up to expectations so far. He has a 49.7% Hard% and 2.6% K-BB% on the year. He's kicked it up a notch in the second half, batting .304 with 10 extra-base hits. The only knock on his profile is the lack of RBI opps due to team context.

Jake Cronenworth has been a dud all season long after an outstanding sophomore campaign. Although he still maintains a very low whiff rate, his expected average is down to .217 this year after posting an xBA of .282 and .323 the previous two years. The culprit seems to be an elevated launch angle of 19.9 that has led to a fly-ball rate increase of 13 points from last season. Fewer line drives are falling in for base hits as a result. Cronenworth remains a patient, contact-oriented hitter, but one whose lack of power is finally catching up to him.

Andrew McCutchen isn't done yet. His season-long 8.9% BB% is the lowest of his career but it's seen an uptick in the second half as his K-rate has consequently fallen. Cutch is also providing power and has scored 19 runs since the break. The speed is gone and he won't help your batting average but there's still enough left in the tank to make this former MVP fantasy-relevant.

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