RADIO
With the 2018 season underway, let's check in on three second basemen who are free swingers.
Coming into the season, Rougned Odor, Javier Baez, and Ian Happ were drafted in the top 150 overall picks. They haven't offered much to fantasy owners so far, but then again we're less than a month into the season.
While the samples are still small, what do they have to offer for the rest of the season?
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Free Swingers
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
Coming into the season, many projection systems were touting Ian Happ (2B/OF, CHC) for a .250 batting average and 25-30 HR.
His power still comes against right-handed pitching, as 19 of his 24 HR were against RHP in 2017. His batted-ball profile has changed (small sample alert). In 49 at-bats, Happ is hitting more balls in the air (54.0 FB%), but his infield fly-ball rate has doubled to 7.7%. His average fly-ball distance has stayed the same (328 feet in 2017 and 326 feet in 2018) so far.
His declining contact and rising K% (47.2%) provides some cause for concern. Happ has chased more change-ups out of the zone (56%) for swinging strikes (37.9 SwStr%) in 2018. According to xstats.org, Happ had a .239 xAVG in 2017, and owns a current .196 xAVG. Steamer's .237 projected BA looks closer to a reality in the early part of the season. On a positive note, a 25.0 LD% is helping his cause, and hitting more line drives could eventually help his BA.
What about his hard contact? After posting a 33% hard% in 2017, his hard contact has slipped to 29% in 2018. Maybe the weather is playing a role, as his exit velocity on FB/LD has fallen from 93.4 MPH in 2017 to 89 MPH in 2018. He can hit several pitches, as he had the most success against two-seam fastballs (1.077 OPS), change-ups (.942 OPS), and four-seam fastballs (.799 OPS) in 2017.
As the season continues, monitor his playing time in Chicago. Joe Maddon has decided to sit him against some southpaws, as most of Happ's power comes against right-handed pitching.
Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
A hamstring injury has Rougned Odor (2B, TEX) on the 10-day DL. Through 11 games, Odor cut down on his strikeouts (17.0 K%) and increased his plate discipline (9.8 BB%) with more patience. While those are positive signs, xstats.org has Odor with a .220 xAVG. Fewer line drives (7%) to open the season has limited the hits.
While BA may continue to drag, he's hitting more balls in the air (48.0 FB%), and his hard contact (45%) was soaring (36.0% in 2017) before his DL stint. His infield fly-ball rate (15.4 IFFB%) has remained steady in the first few weeks of the season. Early on, he has pulled (65.5 Pull%) more balls, which was up from 47.0 Pull% in 2016 and 50.3 Pull% in 2017. According to xstats.org, most of the power is real. With 30 home runs in 2017, his expected total was 26.3 xHR.
Even though it may look like platoon splits are worsening, a .161 BABIP held down Odor versus lefties in 2017. His .452 OPS versus LHP should be an anomaly with his .652 career-OPS against portsiders. Posting a .781 OPS in 2016 and a .763 OPS vs. LHP in 2017 bodes well for some bounce back.
Against individual pitches, Odor can square up two-seam fastballs (.861 OPS in 2017). Much like Happ, he chases sliders and change-ups out of the zone over 50% of the time, and he only managed a .550 OPS vs. change-ups and a .488 OPS vs. sliders in 2017.
As Rotoballer's injury report pointed out last week, Odor's hamstring injury may slow him down on the basepaths. If the injury dampens his totals (29 SB in '16 and '17), Steamer's projected 11 SB could be a good target.
When he returns, see if the strikeout and walk improvements are real. If so, a bump in OBP and becoming more selective could help provide some value in 2018.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
Javier Baez (2B/SS, CHC) is another free swinger. To open the 2018 season, he has slugged five home runs (4.7 xHR) with a .235 batting average (.293 xAVG). Javier Baez's early home runs are supported, but an early .212 BABIP has suppressed some of his batting average.
Like Odor, the free swinger has shown improvements with more patience (10.2 BB%) and slowly cutting down (22.0 K%) on his swings and misses. His approach is still in transition mode, as he still misses sliders (24.o SwStr%), curveballs (30.4 SwStr%), and change-ups (33.3 SwStr%).
Fortunately, he's hitting the ball with authority (44.7 hard%) when he does make contact. Baez has increased his exit velocity on FB/LD from 94.0 MPH in 2017 to 100.7 MPH in 2018. Not only is he hitting the ball harder, but he's hitting fewer ground balls (30.6 GB%) in 2018. While it's a positive sign to see more fly balls (44.4 FB%), his infield fly rate (18.8%) has doubled. If he can keep his exit velocity up and his ground ball rate down, we could see a career-high HR total from Baez.
While he normally hits well (.832 career-OPS) against left-handed pitching, a .077 BABIP has kept his 2018 totals (.490 OPS) down. Baez has been more patient (13.6 BB%) versus LHP, which bodes well for OBP and finding pitches to drive. When facing right-handers, Baez has four home runs in 32 at-bats. Crushing the ball (41.7 hard% in 2018 up from 29.8 hard% vs. RHP in 2017) and shifting a 50.0 GB% in 2017 to a 50.0 FB% (only 25.o GB%) versus right-handers has contributed to an impressive 1.312 OPS.
Over the last two seasons, Baez has also added double-digit stolen bases to rosters. With a 79% success rate (22/28) in 2016/2017, he has the speed to steal 10-12 SB in 2018.
Monitor Baez's ability to sustain his batted-ball profile and his plate approach. With consistent playing time and improvements, Javier Baez could provide the most profit of the three options at second base.
Recap
As all three have swings and misses in their game, all three can also provide value for fantasy rosters. Track Ian Happ's playing time and rising strikeouts in Chicago, as his OF eligibility adds some flexibility to a roster. When Rougned Odor returns from the DL, we can watch to see if he can carry over his early improvements. The same goes for Javier Baez, as he has had hot and cold months throughout his career. With early batted-ball changes and exit velocity shifts, Baez is in line to provide the most value of the three in 2o18.
