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It's truly the best time of the year. NFL football is in full swing, the holiday season is right around the corner, and college basketball is finally back!
With all of the preseason content being released over the past month, countless lists of top players, conference winners, and best bets are being thrown around everywhere. Which teams are undervalued or overvalued? How will the new hires fare in their first seasons? Will another mid-major reach the final four? All questions that we will find out the answer to in the coming months.
Every year there are teams that find themselves ranked higher than they should be. Last year it was UNC coming off of the surprise title game appearance. The year before, Michigan, Oregon, and Ohio State were among some of the programs that had too lofty of expectations. Here are some of the teams for 2023-24 that could underperform relative to their preseason rankings.
Houston Cougars
Preseason AP Poll: 7th
Preseason Kenpom Ranking: 3rd
I understand that betting against the Cougars has been very unprofitable the past few seasons. Kelvin Sampson has kept Houston playing at an absolute elite level for three straight seasons. The former Indiana head coach has compiled a ridiculous 93-14 record in that time span, winning two AAC regular season titles.
This may be Sampson’s toughest test as the head coach of the Cougars thus far though, as Houston makes the jump from the lowly AAC to the powerhouse Big-12. The Big 12 is consistently either the best or second-best league in the country, and this upcoming season will be no exception. Kansas is preseason No. 1 with two other teams residing in the AP top 25 (Baylor & Texas) and a whopping six more teams sitting in the top 50 of KenPom’s preseason rankings. To put this in perspective, the AAC had one other team within the KenPom top 50 last season.
Along with the crazy increase in competition level, the Cougars also lost their two best players in 2023 AAC Player of the Year Marcus Sasser and top-ten NBA draft pick Jarace Walker. Jamal Shead returns, and Sampson was able to snag one of the best portal guys in point guard LJ Cryer from Baylor, but they just don’t have the same firepower as they did a season ago. Houston will also have to rely heavily on redshirt senior J'Wan Roberts to hold down a front line that is not looking very deep. Don't get me wrong, the Cougars will still be very good this upcoming year, but I just don't see them as a top-seven team. No. 15-20 is a more appropriate ranking for the Cougars.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Preseason AP Poll: 13th
Preseason KenPom ranking: 45th
Bringing back three starters from a Final Four a year ago should automatically mean a successful follow up campaign, right? Well, that wasn’t the case for UNC this past season, and I don’t think it will be for Miami in 2023-24 either. I did a deeper dive into the Hurricanes in my ACC preview, but I just don't see them being able to repeat their success of the past two seasons.
Jim Larrañaga is a legendary basketball coach and has done more with less in his 12 years as the head man in Coral Gables. Six appearances, and twelve NCAA tournament wins that include four sweet sixteens, two elite eight, and one final four. Miami won the ACC last season, but it was a major down year for the conference that saw only five teams receive bids to the Big Dance. The biggest reason why they had so much success of recent is because of 2023 ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong. The New Jersey native was maybe the best iso-scorer and play-maker in the country, constantly making something out of nothing with his lightning quick first step, deadly mid-range game and acrobatic finishes.
Wong was the perfect compliment to Kansas State transfer guard Nijel Pack last year, who is one of the nation’s best shooters. The ceiling of this team could come down to the play of G Woogla Poplar, who has the size and athleticism to be a solid second or third option on a team, but he is no Wong. Without their star point guard, Miami is likely going to struggle to keep their preseason top-15 ranking alive.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Preseason AP Poll: 10th
Preseason KenPom ranking: 37th
I promise I’m not just hating on the basketball teams in Florida. Also, if you’re wondering whether another 2023 final four team landing on this list is a trend, the answer is yes. We see this every year. A surprise March Madness run inflates a team’s prospects for the next season kind of unfairly, especially if that team has core players returning. More often than not, those teams fail to reach expectations, and unfortunately, I think that will be the case with this Florida Atlantic squad.
There’s no doubt that what they did last season was incredible. Leading the NCAA with 31 regular season victories, the Owls took a No. 9 seed all the way to the Final Four where they lost on a buzzer-beater to five-seed San Diego State. One missed shot away from a title chance.
This team loses only one key bench player - Michael Forrest - who added 8 points and two assists per game last year. Other than that, everyone returns, along with their excellent head coach Dusty May. The former UF assistant received a plethora of calls for higher-level jobs this offseason but stayed put in Boca. So why am I claiming they are overrated?
Keep in mind this is all relative. Fla Atlantic is a very good team. Of course, they could pull a Butler-lite and return to the Final Four for the second year in a row but I think it’s more likely they find themselves out of the top 25. Even though this team won a ton of games last year heading into tournament play, they were still a best kept secret due to the low national exposure. The cat is now out of the bag. Dusty May’s squad will already have massive targets on their backs from the minute this season tips off and are now in a tougher conference having jumped from Conference USA to the AAC this offseason.
KenPom had only two other Conference USA teams in the top 100 in 2022-23 compared to five in the American to start the 2023-24 season. The Owls non-conference schedule is also a bit tough, with neutral site games against No. 25 Illinois and No. 12 Arizona. I think this team is an NCAA lock, but they are not the 10th best team in the country.
Xavier Musketeers
Preseason AP Poll: NA (Included in "Others Receiving Votes")
Preseason KenPom ranking: 34th
Everybody knows the saying one’s trash is another’s treasure, which is precisely the situation that played out between the Arizona and Xavier men’s basketball programs. The latter fired head coach Sean Miller in April of 2021 after a myriad of NCAA violations came to light and Xavier scooped him up a year later. All Miller did was lead the Musketeers to a second place Big East finish and a Sweet-16 appearance in his first year. Year two will likely be much more rocky.
Miller struck gold in the portal last year with point guard Souley Boum, who went from Conference USA stand out to an All-Big East first-team performer. Him and program guy Colby Jones (15 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists) left for the NBA, while dependable reserve guard Adam Kunkel (10.9 PPG) graduated.
The good news is that Xavier’s frontline of Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter return. The bad news is that both of them are in danger of missing the entire 2023-24 season. Fremantle was absent from the last 15 games of 2022-23 with a left foot injury, but reportedly underwent successful surgery on the foot in September. However, the school has not given a timetable for his return. The same can be said of forward Jerome Hunter, who is out indefinitely with an undisclosed medical issue. Both have been staples of this program for the past two years, and losing them is a huge blow for Miller’s front line and ultimately the ceiling of this team.
Two high-level scoring guards come over from Conference USA to help ease these losses. Dayvion McKnight from Western Kentucky and Quincy Olivari from Rice both combined to average over 35 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists per game last year for their respective schools. Even if they are able to transfer over 75-80% of that production to the Big East, I’m not sure it will be enough for Xavier to be competitive. Lunardi has the Musketeers as one of the "Last Four In" teams, but I’ll bet that Xavier misses the 2024 tournament entirely.
