RADIO
Dave's quarterback start 'em, sit 'em picks for fantasy football Week 1 lineups (2025). Read his expert QB start/sit advice for Cam Ward, Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, others.
With the first two games of the 2025 NFL season complete, we now fully turn our attention to the first Sunday slate of the year. A total of 13 games are scheduled to take place this Sunday. There are some great matchups on tap, and it should be a fun weekend of football.
Speaking of matchups, today is a great time to start planning your Week 1 fantasy football lineups. While many analysts and gamers have shifted towards drafting the elite fantasy quarterbacks early in drafts, many still adhere to the late-round quarterback approach. Some firmly believe in streaming the position altogether. If you fall into one of the latter two categories, fear not, we've got you covered this week.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football needs. Let's discuss our Week 1 quarterback start 'em and sit'em picks.
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Week 1 Starts - Potential Fantasy Football Booms
Trevor Lawrence - QB, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers
Lawrence gets a massive boost this year with former Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen taking over as Jacksonville's new head coach. Coen helped guide another former first overall pick, Baker Mayfield, to a career year in 2024. There's hope he can do the same for Lawrence this year, starting in Week 1.
It was 27-10... The @Jaguars now have the lead!
📺: #DALvsJAX on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/rZZZ8aG10V pic.twitter.com/YGAeXe7fJP— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022
Lawrence draws a tasty opening matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers also finished 31st in defensive passing DVOA per FTN Fantasy. Carolina allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year, per Fantasy Football Today. Coen should have a field day calling plays against a Panthers defense that still has a ton of holes.
With two stud wide receivers in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, as well as a capable pass-catching running back in Travis Etienne Jr., there is a lot to like about Lawrence this week. Fire him up as a streamer in single quarterback leagues. He's also a strong QB2 play in superflex formats.
Michael Penix Jr. - QB, Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Penix entering this game. While that's fair, it's worth pointing out that Penix finished fourth in PFF passing grade among 47 quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks in 2024. This is also a plus-matchup for the sophomore starting quarterback.
Tampa Bay allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2024. Last season's starter, Kirk Cousins, absolutely destroyed the Tampa Bay defense in two starts last year despite not playing anywhere close to an elite level the rest of the season. Tampa Bay's defense still has several question marks, and while Penix is inexperienced, he has zero issues throwing the ball downfield. That could lead to plenty of explosive plays for the Atlanta offense.
Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson seemed to have Todd Bowles' number last year in two matchups between these teams. We could see the same again on Sunday, and that makes Penix a great potential streamer. He's a viable play in superflex leagues, too, as this might be one of the best times to start Penix all year.
Jordan Love - QB, Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
This game has the fourth-highest projected total on the Sunday slate. It's for good reason as these two teams combined to score 65 points and consistently moved the ball up and down the field in their most recent meeting in 2024.
Love throws a dart to Kraft for the TD! #GBvsDET on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/gJvNS1KJ9m— NFL (@NFL) December 6, 2024
Detroit allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year and allowed the fifth-most passing yards to the position, too. The Lions are also breaking in a new defensive coordinator this year, and that might cause some early-season hiccups.
It looks like Love may have a full complement of weapons at its disposal for this game. Tight end Tucker Kraft and rookie wide receiver Matthew Golden are primed for big games after an offseason filled with hype. Third-year wide receiver Jayden Reed is banged up, but practiced the last two days and might also suit up for this game.
Head coach Matt LaFleur strategically deployed his starters in the preseason this year in an attempt to help his team get out to a fast start. That might shake out any cobwebs and also help Love take advantage of a defense that, while talented, could struggle adapting to a new play-caller.
This game has sneaky shootout potential, and that makes Love a viable Week 1 streamer. If we get the right game script, he is live for a monster game.
Week 1 Concerns - Potential Fantasy Football Busts
Caleb Williams - QB, Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
With Ben Johnson now scheming up plays in Chicago, we should expect better results from Williams and this offense compared to the slop we saw in 2024. However, we might want to temper expectations for this week.
Minnesota ranked second in defensive DVOA and first in defensive passing DVOA in 2024. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is known for his aggressive, blitz-heavy defense. That could cause major issues for Williams in his first game adjusting to a new offense.
Williams had serious problems holding onto the football too long last year, and that could really become an issue against a defense like this, especially if Chicago's new offensive line can't hold up in pass protection. With Minnesota also breaking in first-time starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, we could be looking at a defensive style game with both offenses struggling to sustain drives and score points.
Put everything together, and leaving Williams on the bench looks like the right call.
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
On paper, this looks like a good matchup for the Dolphins' passing game. Indianapolis ranked 22nd in defensive passing DVOA and allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league last year. The Colts also had the seventh-fewest sacks in the league in 2024.
However, Indianapolis did finish 12th in PFF's pass coverage grade, and the team also made a huge hire on the defensive coaching staff this offseason.
I think the Colts got an excellent Defensive Coordinator in Lou Anarumo. We did many Cincinnati Bengals games over the last 3 years and his defenses were always well prepared and his players loved playing for him. I’m excited to see what Coach Lou brings to the Colts! pic.twitter.com/LGJ9ZFPMd5
— Tony Dungy (@TonyDungy) January 22, 2025
Anarumo is one of the better defensive coaches in the league. His presence could mean we see big strides from the Colts' defense this year. While Indianapolis had trouble rushing the passer in 2024, Miami has major question marks along the offensive line. That could give Anarumo plenty of opportunities to scheme up looks to confuse Miami's offensive line and might force Tagovailoa into some poor decisions.
Tagovailoa also brings zero rushing upside to the table. If Miami's passing game struggles in this game, Tagovailoa offers very little upside. Consider other streamers this week.
Cam Ward - QB, Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Ward received a ton of praise this summer and drew rave reviews just about everywhere you looked. However, this is about as tough a matchup a rookie quarterback could draw for his first career start. The Denver defense was one of the best in the league last year, and the team only added more weapons to this unit in the offseason. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph must be salivating at what his unit could do against a rookie making his first-ever start.
The Broncos have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, thanks to the elevation difference in Denver. Throw in a hostile environment, a suspect offensive line, and a Tennessee offense devoid of sufficient playmakers behind WR1 Calvin Ridley, and it's easy to see things spiraling out of control in this game.
Ward is a talented player. Brighter days are on the horizon for a struggling Titans franchise. This week is not one of those days, though. Expect Denver's defense to relentlessly get after Ward and pressure him into some poor decisions.
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