RADIO
We march into Week 5 of the 2019 baseball season and vigilance of the waiver wire becomes increasingly important as we approach May. The impact of one awful or great game is starting to become less meaningful as players gradually approach steady state.
One luxury of Statcast data is the ability to compare actual with expected results. A key metric is the delta between weighted on-base average (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Eventually, the numbers should be nearly identical. In 2018, the median variance for batters with over 500 plate appearances was just 0.002. In the early going, a wide difference could indicate initial results have been fluky, for better or worse.
Our points league waiver wire column will default to standard scoring and try to unearth three players under 50% ownership and three players under 25% ownership. For each group, we’ll identify an infielder, outfielder and pitcher. Let’s get hunting!
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Points League Pickups to Consider
Niko Goodrum (1B/2B/3B/SS/OF, DET)
45% Owned
Based on his numbers last year (16 homers, 12 steals) and position eligibility alone, Niko Goodrum should be considered in any fantasy format. He’s off to a solid start in his first season as a full-time player and the results have been encouraging, slashing .247/.371/.438 with a pair of dingers and three stolen bags.
Goodrum’s xwOBA of .415 is a gap of -.062 against his wOBA (.353), with Statcast suggesting his average should be hovering closer to .300. He’s demonstrated the pop and speed are durable after 500 combined plate appearances between 2018 and 2019 while his walks are up (0.71 BB/K). Plus, he’s already contributed eight doubles. Goodrum fits anywhere on a fantasy lineup and is entrenched at cleanup on the Tigers. With a chance to test a 20/20 season, he should easily be owned in more than half of leagues.
Kendrys Morales (1B, OAK)
2% Owned
Using Goodrum’s xwOBA and wOBA variance as a baseline, the -.121 difference between Kendrys Morales’ metrics is a chasm. Morales currently owns the largest margin between actual and expected results, giving the veteran slugger plenty of forward-looking appeal in deeper leagues.
In 13 career seasons, Morales has surpassed 100 games seven times, cranking at least 20 jacks in each campaign. Morales has only one homer this season despite a crushing 54% hard-hit rate. If he continues pummeling the ball, the .204 BABIP is sure to creep closer to his .292 career norm. Throw in an excellent 0.90 BB/K rate, Morales is a bargain as a part-time fantasy asset with a reliable resume.
Harrison Bader (OF, STL)
33% Owned
Harrison Bader generated some offseason sleeper buzz, but his ownership has dipped after missing almost two weeks with an injured hamstring. Bader was activated from the IL on April 24 and will attempt to close the discrepancy between his .308 wOBA and .376 xwOBA.
It’s possible Bader fails to start every day due to his struggles with right-handers (.653 OPS), but his strong defense will likely allot him considerable opportunities. Bader smacked 12 homers and swiped 15 bags last season in 427 plate appearances and if he can raise his launch angle from a putrid 2.8 degrees to last year’s 12.5, the slugging numbers should follow. With his speed, Bader could be a doubles and triples machine now with healthy legs, enhancing his points league appeal.
Avisail Garcia (OF, TB)
16% Owned
Despite seasons with 18 and 19 home runs over the past two years, Avisail Garcia continues being an underrated power source for fantasy squads and deep leagues. Garcia has already gone yard four times this season and prevailing healthy trends in exit velocity and launch angle support a .360 xwOBA.
Through 91 plate appearances, Garcia is barreling a ridiculous 21% of balls which have translated into the aforementioned long balls and nine total extra-base hits. He’s batted between fourth and sixth in the order so should have sustained chances for run production. The knock on Garcia is his concerning strikeout rates (30%) but an uptick in walks from 5% to 7% should partially insulate that detraction. Extrapolated over a full season, Garcia has a legitimate shot at clearing the fence 25 times while racking up an additional 30 doubles, triples and 160 runs-plus-RBI.
Tyler Skaggs (SP, LAA)
36% Owned
The start of Tyler Skaggs’ season was delayed after just three starts with a sprained ankle. Returning this weekend, Skaggs will look to lower his wOBA of .367 closer to the more respectable xwOBA clip of .301. While Skaggs won’t blow batters away with a low-90s fastball, he’s succeeded throughout his career with a three-pitch mix highlighted by a killer curveball (8.1 wCH/C this season).
While no whiff artist, Skaggs holds a passable 9% SwStr% and a strikeout rate around 23%. He’s always demonstrated great control and has only issued two free passes in 15 innings for a 3% walk rate and 7.0 K/BB. If he handles the Royals on April 26 as this is being published, expect the ownership levels to spike.
Jerad Eickhoff (SP, PHI)
21% Owned
The key beneficiary of Nick Pivetta’s faceplant was Jerad Eickhoff, who assumed the starting position availed by Pivetta’s early-season implosion. He performed serviceably in his first start in challenging Coors Field, allowing four earned runs in six innings with eight strikeouts.
Eickhoff is no spring chicken at 28 years old, but he missed almost all of 2018 with a lingering lat injury. Having barely scratched 15 innings since his return last September, it’s fair to worry about his track record. The limited data supports promising metrics, with Eickhoff’s 2019 results suggesting paltry expected stats of .134 (average), .201 (slugging) and xwOBA (.198). Although he’ll likely have some innings limitations to work around, a 13% swinging strike rate always deserves fantasy attention.
Update: Eickhoff cruised past the Marlins on April 27, firing seven innings of scoreless ball, allowing just a hit, walk while striking out six. to pick up the victory.
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