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Welcome to the Week 4 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this fourth main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Brock Purdy, SF vs. ARI | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $28
It's eye-catching to see Purdy still being listed at modest salaries across the industry, considering the way he and the 49ers offense have started the season. The second-year signal-caller has thrown for 736 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions and has even added a rushing score. Meanwhile, Purdy has scored 14.7 to 23.3 DK points and 14.7 to 20.3 FD/Yahoo points in his first three games.
The Cardinals are still missing star safety Budda Baker (IR-hamstring), and although the defense certainly put on an impressive performance against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in the big Week 3 upset, San Francisco's offense arguably presents even more of a well-rounded and explosive threat. The Cards are also giving up an elevated 10.0 yards per completion, while Purdy has already hit on 11 passes of 20+ yards among his 61 completions, and even if Deebo Samuel (ribs/knee) can't go, Brandon Aiyuk will be back from a shoulder injury after a one-game absence.
Brock Purdy
-111 QB passer rating or higher in 6 of last 8 regular season games
-8 straight regular season games with 93 QB passer rating or higher
-11 games as a starter(reg + playoffs) and an 87.4 is his worst QB passer rating game pic.twitter.com/YpINvtQHII— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) September 29, 2023
Bryce Young, CAR vs. MIN | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
Young is ready to roll for Week 4 after missing one game due to an ankle sprain. The first overall pick reportedly looked excellent in practice all week and may have benefited from watching veteran Andy Dalton from the sideline in Week 3. Young was one of the most risk-averse quarterbacks over the first two weeks of the season, but a matchup against a Vikings team that Carolina will likely need to remain aggressive against could certainly lead to more downfield passing for the rookie.
The Vikings have allowed 261.7 passing yards per game and 9.8 yards per completion, along with an NFC-high 76.2 percent completion rate. Minnesota has also only modestly pressured quarterbacks (six) and has corralled just one interception while surrendering six passing touchdowns, making them a good target for Young's first breakout performance as a pro.
ALSO CONSIDER: Derek Carr, NO vs. TB | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $24 OR Jameis Winston, NO vs. TB | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,500 Yahoo: $24
DK-FD Special: Matthew Stafford, LAR at IND | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,600
Running Back DFS Value Plays
James Cook, BUF vs. MIA | DK: $6,300, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
Cook has been a mainstay in this column thus far this season thanks to his highly efficient numbers, which include 6.1 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per reception. The second-year back has speed to burn, and the only knock on his overall numbers thus far is that he hasn't yet found the end zone. That's naturally bound to change given his talent, as well as the fact he's logged five red-zone rushes in the last two games, including three inside the 10-yard line.
The Dolphins' offense has naturally been the talk of the league, especially in the past week, and their mind-numbing performances have helped mask some defensive issues. Miami is allowing 130 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry, and the Dolphins have also yielded an 11-95 line through the air to running backs. Cook's salaries on DK and FD have actually gone down a tad compared to last week despite the fact he posted 13.2 and 12.2 fantasy points on those respective sites in Week 3, and this could be the game Cook breaks out for his first true had-to-have-it score of the season.
Javonte Williams, DEN at CHI | DK: $5,500, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $20
The Broncos served as the victims of the Dolphins' aforementioned offensive detonation in Week 3, and the massive deficit Denver played with for most of the game helped neutralize Williams' potential effect on the game. Much like Cook, Williams is a back with an overabundance of talent who hasn't had a chance to make his fantasy mark this season for a number of reasons, but this could certainly be the week that all changes.
Williams is presumably gaining more strength in his surgically repaired knee the more he plays, and the third-year back's conditioning should be back up to par after logging 81 snaps from scrimmage over the first three games. Williams has logged double-digit carries and receptions in each game thus far as well, and the Bears, which suffered their own shellacking at the hands of the Chiefs in Week 3, could be just the defense that helps facilitate Williams' first big game of the season -- Chicago is allowing 121.7 rushing yards per game and has already yielded a 15-170-3 receiving line to running backs.
ALSO CONSIDER: Alvin Kamara, NO vs. TB | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $22 // Ezekiel Elliott, NE at DAL | DK: $5,100, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $10
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Jordan Addison, MIN at CAR | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $19
Addison is another interesting piece from a Vikings-Panthers matchup that could have more offense than many might assume. Addison has gotten his career off to a good start despite Minnesota's overall struggles, posting a 13-185-2 line on 19 targets. The speedster scored in each of the first two career games before posting new high-water marks of six catches and eight targets in Week 3 versus the Chargers.
The Panthers secondary is still missing Jaycee Horn (IR-hamstring) and has allowed 9.6 yards per completion overall, along with 12.8 yards per catch to receivers specifically. There's naturally no question plenty of attention will be heaped on Addison's pass-catching teammates Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson again this week, so Addison could well benefit from some one-on-one matchups he's very capable of exploiting.
#Vikings Jordan Addison Snap% and target% by week:
Week 1:
- Snap%: 56%
- Target%: 14.5%Week 2:
- Snap%: 69%
- Target%: 11.63%Week 3:
- Snap%: 71%
- Target%: 17.02% pic.twitter.com/99DRw9t2kZ— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) September 26, 2023
Tutu Atwell, LAR at IND | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $20
There will naturally be no shortage of interest in the DFS community in Atwell's rookie position mate Puka Nacua, which could leave the former much lower-rostered than he should be for a matchup against a Colts defense that forces plenty of passing due to its run-stopping capability. Indy is facing 250.7 passing yards per game and an elevated 9.9 yards per completion, along with a 69.5 percent catch rate to wide receivers.
Atwell has already logged 26 targets through three games, and his 17-246-1 line nearly outpaces the 18-298-1 tally on 35 targets he put together across 13 games in 2022. The third-year wideout also has an elevated 13.4-yard aDOT plus a 32.4 percent share of the Rams' air yards thus far, while Indianapolis is surrendering 11.8 yards per catch to receivers and has already yielded four touchdowns to the position as well.
Adam Thielen, CAR vs. MIN | DK: $4,500, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $18
Thielen broke out in Week 3 while playing with a savvy veteran quarterback in Andy Dalton that may have served as a poor man's Kirk Cousins of sorts for him against Seattle's weak pass defense. However, at his salaries, Thielen is worth considering for tournaments in a matchup against his old team and with a talented young quarterback in Young who by all accounts is heading into his return from a one-game absence with a more confident and aggressive approach.
Thielen did rack up some good late-game production in Week 2 with Young as his quarterback, finishing with a 7-54-1 line on nine targets in a loss to the Saints. Thielen was then in vintage form with his 11-catch, 145-yard, one-TD tally in Week 3, and the Vikings' defense previously detailed weakness against the pass, which include a 55-710-5 line already surrendered to wide receivers, puts him in play.
ALSO CONSIDER: Joshua Palmer, LAC vs. LVR | DK: $4,000, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $15 // Marvin Mims Jr., DEN at CHI | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $16
Tight End DFS Value Plays
George Kittle, SF vs. ARI | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $16
As mentioned in Purdy's entry, the 49ers have a solid matchup against a short-handed Cardinals defensive backfield. As also alluded to there, San Fran could be down Samuel due to his multiple injuries, which would only make Kittle an even more attractive play at his salaries. Even at full health, the talented tight end is a great tournament play that offers plenty of opportunity to fit in other big-name players due to how cost-effective he is this week.
Kittle had his first big game of the season in Week 3 with a 7-90 line on nine targets that netted 16 DK/12.5 FanDuel and Yahoo points, and he'll be well-rested with the Niners having played on Thursday night in that slate. Then, the Cardinals have been susceptible to tight ends early in the season despite a change in defensive scheme, as they've allowed a 17-187 line on 27 targets to the position. Kittle also scored four touchdowns on eight receptions over two games versus Arizona last season, furthering his appeal.
Juwan Johnson, NO vs. TB | DK: $3,300, FD: $4,700, Yahoo: $12
Johnson has been a bit of a disappointment from a fantasy perspective early this season after a breakout 2022, but the big target is naturally as talented as he was last year and could be in a good spot to produce whether it's Carr or Winston under center for New Orleans. Johnson has 12 targets through three games, but with Tampa Bay giving up a 21-252 tally to tight ends already this season, this could be the game where he takes more of a central role.
The return of Alvin Kamara from his season-opening suspension should naturally help draw defensive attention, and Johnson also produced a solid 4-40 line on seven targets in his only game versus Todd Bowles' defense in 2022. With his salaries so close to minimum, even production along those lines would be enough to justify rostering him, but Johnson's certainly capable of providing appreciably more.
ALSO CONSIDER: Gerald Everett, LAC vs. LVR | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $17
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