RADIO
Welcome to the Week 18 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Sunday's main slate and I hunt for value plays that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
We've arrived at what is arguably the most unpredictable slate of the season for DFS purposes each year, but thanks in part to the NFL's expanded playoff format, we have plenty of teams still playing with varying degree of postseason-related incentive. That's certainly music to our ears as DFS players, as it helps eliminate some of the guesswork involved with respect to playing time. We have a solid group of value options again at our disposal as a result, with even some of the non-contending squads providing viable alternatives.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Geno Smith, SEA vs. LAR | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $29
The Seahawks are one of the clubs with plenty to play for in Week 18, as they must win and hope for a Lions victory over the Packers on Sunday night. That puts Smith firmly into play against what could be a mostly disinterested Rams team, one he lit up for a season-high 367 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 13 for 28 DK/24 FD/23 Yahoo points. Smith has Tyler Lockett back in the fold as of last week as well, and Smith, who already has a 14:4 TD:INT at home this season, is facing a Los Angeles secondary that has been markedly more generous when traveling than on its home field.
The Rams have conceded the fourth-most passing yards per road game (258.1), along with a 67.2 percent completion rate. Then, it's worth noting L.A. has also allowed 15 red-zone passing touchdowns and an average of 3.4 red-zone scoring attempts per road contest while facing the sixth-highest pass play percentage of any team on the road (60.8%), all numbers that bode well for Smith to help pay off his still-reasonable salaries with multiple scoring tosses in a must-win game.
Deshaun Watson, CLE at PIT | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $21
Watson may not pop off the page as an obvious play at first glance, but to begin with, the ability to get a player of his caliber at his current salaries is always worthy of consideration. Additionally, the multi-time Pro Bowler is still in the midst of knocking off rust, but his burgeoning connection with Amari Cooper, who he hit for a pair of touchdowns in the Week 17 win over the Commanders, certainly gives him plenty of ceiling. Watson's three-touchdown performance versus Washington was his first multi-score game of the season, and despite the Steelers having plenty of motivation in this spot, they have been susceptible to big plays through the air at times.
The Steelers are allowing an AFC-high 11.5 yards per completion and are tied for fourth-most passing touchdowns surrendered as well (26). What's more, Pittsburgh has surrendered more than a red-zone passing touchdown per game (18 in 16 contests) and notably surrendered a combined 16 receptions for 190 yards and two touchdowns to Cooper and David Njoku in Week 3 when the duo was catching passes from Jacoby Brissett. With Cleveland likely to throw caution to the wind a bit in the finale and try to send Watson off into the postseason with some momentum, this is a play that could deliver nicely.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS | DK: $6,600, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $31
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Cam Akers, LAR at SEA | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $25
Akers delivered nicely as a value suggestion in Week 17 by capitalizing on a weak Chargers run defense, amassing 17.3 DK/13.8 FD/13.8 Yahoo points on the strength of a 19-carry, 123-yard effort, his second straight 100-yard tally. Akers is the unquestioned lead back by a large margin as the season comes to a close for the defending champ, as he's averaged 16.1 touches per game over the last seven contests. He also posted 19 DK/18.5 FD/18.5 Yahoo points against the same Seahawks squad he'll face Sunday back in Week 13, a game in which he scored two rushing TDs. Seattle remains much more targetable on the ground than through the air, making it another potentially very busy afternoon for Akers.
Seattle is allowing 156.9 rushing yards per home game at 5.1 yards per carry in that split. The Seahawks are conceding are giving up 4.8 RB yards per carry overall for the season and sports a No. 25 ranking in open-field yards allowed, which bodes well for Akers' prospects -- the third-year back boasts a 17.4% broken-tackle rate and is gaining over 61% of his yards after first contact. It's also worth considering that Akers' robust red-zone role (27 touches in 14 games) dovetails nicely with Seattle's weakness defending the run in that part of the field, one quantified by 16 red-zone rushing touchdowns allowed.
Najee Harris, PIT vs. CLE | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $24
Harris should be fairly popular this week after his nationally televised 111-yard breakout effort against the Ravens that also included a game-winning touchdown reception. The second-year back has put a mostly pedestrian first half of the season firmly behind him, recording 86 rushing yards or more in five of the last eight games while also posting multiple receptions on four occasions during that span. Harris also tallied a solid 14.1 DK/11.6 FD/11.6 Yahoo points against the Browns, which continue to wield one of the league's weakest run defenses as the season comes to a close, back in Week 3 despite logging a relatively modest 18 touches.
Cleveland is allowing 142 rushing yards per road game for the season, and 162 rushing yards per contest in the last three overall. The Browns are also yielding 5.1 RB yards per carry overall and carry No. 24 and No. 27 rankings in second-level and open-field yards surrendered, respectively. Harris has an elite 16.9% broken tackle rate and is gaining 66% of his yards after first contact, so he could be well-equipped to garner some longer runs than usual. He should also be in good position to capitalize on Cleveland's weakness versus the run inside the 20, where the Browns have allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (17) -- Harris has 41 red-zone touches (34 carries, seven receptions) in 16 games.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Latavius Murray, DEN vs. LAC | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $19 // Zack Moss, IND vs. HOU | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $21
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
DK Metcalf, SEA vs. LAR | DK: $6,700, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $21
Metcalf makes for a great dance partner with his quarterback Smith on some of your tournament rosters this week. Not only does he naturally stand to benefit from the same vulnerabilities of the Rams' defense on the road that Smith will, but Metcalf may also be potentially had at a lower rostering rate than usual following his forgettable one-catch, three-yard effort versus the Jets in Week 17. Naturally, those numbers are nowhere near representative of Metcalf's upside; in contrast, his eight-catch 127-yard effort versus Los Angeles on the road in Week 13 that netted 29.7 DK/22.7 FD/Yahoo points certainly is.
Los Angeles has surrendered the fourth-most receptions to wideouts (220) along with the seventh-most receiving yards (2,590), helping lead to the Rams giving up an average of 36.2 DK/27.9 FD points per game to the position. Despite his Week 17 clunker, Metcalf boasts a 37% share in Seattle's total air yards and is laying claim to over 25% of the team's targets. Additionally, he's well-equipped to take advantage of opportunities near the goal line, given he's drawn 27 red-zone targets in 16 games this season. Given the stakes at play for Seattle and last week's abysmal performance, there's little doubt the big-bodied receiver should see plenty of volume coming his way Sunday.
K.J. Osborn, MIN at CHI | DK: $4,700, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $13
Osborn may admittedly be best left for larger-field tournaments, but he's an intriguing option on yet another team that has something to play for Sunday. Last week's embarrassing loss to the Packers left Minnesota in the No. 3 seed for the moment, and the Vikes have to therefore try for a win in this spot to have any hope of regaining the No. 2 spot and the home playoff game it would afford. Osborn was a bright spot in the loss to Green Bay, posting a 7-59-1 line on seven targets on his way to 18.9 DK/15.4 FD/Yahoo points. It was Osborn's fourth double-digit fantasy-point tally of what has been a career-best season, and he now takes on a Bears defense he posted five catches against back in Week 5 and that's been increasingly vulnerable to big plays through the air.
The Bears are surrendering 240 passing yards per game over the last three, and they've given up the third-highest yards per completion on the season (11.4). Chicago is also conceding a whopping 14.6 yards per reception to wideouts while averaging one red-zone TD pass per game surrendered. Meanwhile, Osborn has notably logged seven of his 11 red-zone targets this season in the last four games, yet another sign of his burgeoning role in the offense. Finally, considering head coach Kevin O'Connell stated late in the week that his main skill players may not put in a full game Sunday with a Cardinals upset of the Niners a longshot, which could certainly afford Osborn a bit more opportunity.
Rashid Shaheed, NO vs. CAR | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $15
Shaheed's profile in the Saints offense has grown exponentially over the last five games, a span in which the rookie speedster has produced a 19-343-1 line on 22 targets over an average of just under 35 snaps per contest. Shaheed is putting up a solid 12 DK/10.1 FD/Yahoo points per game in that stretch, and he's been targeted on an impressive 25.6% of his routes while averaging an elevated 4.0 yards/route run. With Jarvis Landry (ankle) on injured reserve, Shaheed has a clear hold on the No. 2 receiver role heading into Sunday's finale, and he certainly has the wheels to capitalize on the Panthers' injury-hampered secondary that just gave up over 200 receiving yards and three touchdowns to Mike Evans in Week 17.
Carolina is now allowing an NFL-high 305.3 passing yards per game in the last three contests, and 245.4 passing yards per road contest overall on the season. The Panthers are also yielding 12.1 yards per completion in the last three games and have surrendered a 71.7 % completion rate on the road for the campaign, the third-highest figure in the league. It's also worth noting Carolina has given up the second-most receptions (235), third-most DK (40.3) and third-most FD (31.7) points per game to wideouts, further cementing Shaheed's case at salaries he's already proven capable of delivering a strong return on this season.
ALSO CONSIDER:
T.Y. Hilton, DAL at WAS | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $13
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Tyler Conklin, NYJ at MIA | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $14
Conklin is likely to be a popular play at a position that's seemed perpetually thin this season and on a main slate that's missing the likes of Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Evan Engram since all three play Saturday. Conklin put together an impressive performance against the Seahawks in Week 17 as well, producing a 6-80 line on six targets for a tally of 14 DK/11 FD/Yahoo points. The Jets are out of playoff contention but would undoubtedly love to play spoiler against the division-rival Dolphins and are also turning back to veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback, with whom Conklin averaged 6.0 receptions and 46.7 receiving yards on 8.0 targets over the first three games of the season.
The Dolphins also make for very good targets, as Miami has allowed an AFC-high 95 receptions and the second-most touchdowns (10) to tight ends on the season, along with the third-most DK (15.8) and FD (12.6) points per game to the position. The Fins have done a good job keeping throws in the short-to-middle passing windows -- they're allowing a stingy 8.3 yards per completion at home -- which could bode very well for Conklin given his typical route tree. Finally, the fact Miami has conceded an NFL-high 24 red-zone passing touchdowns certainly doesn't hurt Conklin's chances of boosting his production at very reasonable salaries.
Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN vs. LAC | DK: $2,900, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $10
Okwuegbunam made a splash in Week 17 with Greg Dulcich (IR-hamstring) out of action, posting a 3-45-1 line on six targets in what was his first meaningful game action since Week 5. There had been hints of a possible Albert O. resurgence leading up to the contest in the comments of nothing-to-lose interim head coach Jerry Rosburg, who'd talked about the little-used tight end and even spent time working with him one on one during the practice week. Okwuegbunam could find himself in another favorable position in the finale at what are still extremely appealing salaries, considering all three tight ends below him on the depth chart sport questionable designations and none are close to the pass-catching threat he is.
The Chargers have given up a 62-871-4 line to tight ends, along with 11.2 DK points/9.0 FD points per game to the position. Just as important, Los Angeles has surrendered 14.0 yards per reception to TEs, while Okwuegbunam is certainly capable of capitalizing on that vulnerability with his ability to get down the seam or up the sideline. The athletic tight end averaged 15.0 yards per grab versus the Chiefs on Sunday, helping corroborate his ability in that regard.
ALSO CONSIDER: Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. NYG | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $19
DK-Yahoo Special: Mark Andrews, BAL at CIN | DK: $5,400, Yahoo: $19
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