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Juan's top NFL DFS value plays for Week 15 of the 2023 season. These sleepers are cheap on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo daily fantasy football contests.
Welcome to the Week 15 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 15th main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. WAS | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $33
Stafford is already rolling and playing the best football of his 2023 season, and he now draws a matchup against what might be the most generous secondary in the league, one attached to a team that's basically playing out the string and seemingly counting the days to a new coaching regime. Stafford has posted a stellar 10:0 TD:INT in his last three contests and has thrown for 279 and 294 in the last two, along with exceeding 20 fantasy points in all of the games during that sample.
The Commanders come in allowing a robust 293.4 passing yards per road game, along with an NFC-high 12.4 yards per completion in that split. Washington has also yielded an NFL-high 30 passing touchdowns and has picked off only six passes overall, lending credence to the notion Stafford could have his way again while working with what appears to finally be a healthy Cooper Kupp alongside star rookie Puka Nacua.
#Rams QB Matthew Stafford has thrown 3+ TDs in each of his last 3 games. 🔥
This is the longest active streak in the #NFL!#RamsHouse
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 13, 2023
Joe Flacco, CLE vs. CHI | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $27
Flacco has been effective enough as the Browns' fill-in quarterback over the last two games to garner a spot on the active roster and a new one-year contract. His recent play also garners him a spot in this week's article as a potentially rewarding value option on a slate light on viable cost-effective signal-callers. Flacco has put up 565 passing yards and a 5:2 TD:INT in his first two starts, and his rapport with Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, David Njoku, and the rest of the air attack should only be getting stronger by the week.
The Bears have been an exceedingly tough defense to attack on the ground, leading to Chicago facing the fifth-highest opponent pass play rate (62.1 percent) entering Week 15 action. Chicago is surrendering an elevated 269.0 passing yards per road game as well and doing so at 9.8 yards per completion, a marked increase from the 8.9 they give up at home. The Bears have also surrendered the third-most touchdown passes (24), and although they've been effective ballhawks with 15 INTs, they've applied middling pressure as reflected by Chicago posting the second-fewest sacks (21) in the league.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Will Levis, TEN vs. HOU | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $20
DraftKings-Yahoo Special:
- Jordan Love, GB vs. TB | DK: $6,200, Yahoo: $30
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Bijan Robinson, ATL at CAR | DK: $6,800, FD: $8,600, Yahoo: $28
Robinson's salary on FD is pushing the boundaries of what I consider legitimate value, but much like with quarterbacks, we're a bit thin on true value selections at running back in Week 15's Sunday slate. Robinson certainly has the upside of a higher-salaried player anyhow, and he seems to finally be getting afforded the type of workload that ups his chances of reaching what is a vast ceiling as both a rusher and receiver. Robinson did log a more modest 15 touches in Week 14 against the Buccaneers, but he'd been at touch counts of 23, 19, and 21 in the previous three games.
The rookie first-round pick has multiple receptions in four of the last five games as well, and he has four rushing touchdowns in the last six contests overall. The Panthers allowed 20.3 DK/17.3 FD and Yahoo points to Robinson back in his NFL debut in Week 1, and Carolina comes in still surrendering 123 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry to RBs despite recent improvement against the run. The Panthers have also conceded an NFL-high 18 rushing touchdowns to running backs, furthering Robinson's case.
Bijan Robinson 33 YARD RUN FOLLOWED BY A TOUCHDOWN ON THE NEXT PLAY pic.twitter.com/J1sQuOEMA6
— Not Bijan (@InBijanWeTrust) December 10, 2023
James Cook, BUF vs. DAL | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $25
Cook has a robust, secure, and versatile backfield role on a talented offense in what could well be the marquee game of the week, which makes him stand out even more than he already would at his salaries. Cook has been particularly effective as a receiver of late, posting an 11-140-1 line through the air on 12 targets in his last two games. His 26-101 rushing tally during the same span is nothing to write home about efficiency-wise, but Cook has the explosiveness to take it to the house on any play and does have much more productive stretches on the ground this season.
The Cowboys have been much more vulnerable against the run on the road, surrendering 128.7 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt in that split, compared to respective figures of 86.6 and 3.8 in their home contests. Dallas hasn't been especially susceptible to pass-catching backs, but Cook should be in line for plenty of opportunities in a game where the Bills will likely be walking the tightrope of making sure they're aggressive enough when they have the ball while also trying to slow the contest down a bit to keep the Cowboys' league-best offense on the sideline.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. HOU | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $14
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Puka Nacua, LAR vs. WAS | DK: $7,300, FD: $8,000, Yahoo: $25
Nacua's stellar rookie season continued in a tough matchup in Week 14, with the BYU alum producing 14 DK/11.5 FD and Yahoo points in the overtime loss to the Ravens via a 5-84 line on nine targets. The rookie draws an exponentially better matchup on paper this week, upping his prospects at what are still arguably reasonable salaries for his upside, especially when also factoring in the considerable troubles the Commanders have slowing down the pass.
On pace for:
165 targets
107 receptions
1,455 receiving ydsNEVER DOUBT Puka 🧃pic.twitter.com/TaFmoN9TgW
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) December 11, 2023
DeAndre Hopkins, TEN vs. HOU | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $21
Hopkins has offered glimpses of his vintage self on several occasions during his first season in Tennessee, but there's arguably only been one other game in which he was as effective as during the Week 14 Monday night road upset of the Dolphins. The veteran turned back the clock with a 7-124-1 line, his third 100-yard game of the season. The latter two have come with rookie QB Will Levis, and Hopkins should have a bit of extra incentive this week with a matchup against his old Texans squad.
Jayden Reed, GB vs. TB | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $18
Reed continued to impress in Week 14 against the Giants. Although he did record another rushing touchdown and put together a strong game on the ground overall, his sheer volume in the passing game was also eye-catching, even as he generated an extremely modest receiving yardage total. Reed drew a career-high 10 targets with Christian Watson (hamstring) sidelined, parlaying eight of them into receptions, albeit for only 27 yards. Nevertheless, he's proven capable of much better efficiency with his receptions in multiple games. He could be in for another hefty dose of volume versus the vulnerable Bucs secondary with Watson likely to sit out again.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Rashee Rice, KC at NE | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $19 // Noah Brown, HOU at TEN | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $17
Yahoo-only Special:
- Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. WAS | $25
Tight End DFS Value Plays
David Njoku, CLE vs. CHI | DK: $4,700, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $19
Njoku and Flacco continued to demonstrate impressive chemistry in their second game together in Week 14, with the veteran tight end posting a 6-91-2 line on eight targets against the Jaguars. Njoku has at least four receptions in seven of the last eight contests overall, a span during which he's averaging 13.5 DK and 11.0 FD and Yahoo points per game while being targeted on an encouraging 26.2 percent of his routes.
As already highlighted in Flacco's entry, the Bears are a team vulnerable to the pass, especially on the road. Those weaknesses have shown up against tight ends as well, with Chicago allowing a 72-589-5 line to the position thus far and doing so while surrendering an elevated 78.2 percent catch rate. With Njoku clearly having Flacco's trust and Cleveland potentially in for a pass-heavier game plan than usual, Njoku could deliver some strong returns on his modest salaries.
WHO STARTED DAVID NJOKU??
Two TDs on the day‼️ pic.twitter.com/bsF5VmUexz
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 10, 2023
Tucker Kraft, GB vs. TB | DK: $3,000, FD: $4,700, Yahoo: $10
Kraft enjoyed what could be termed a mini-breakout game in Week 14, producing a career-best four receptions for 64 yards. The rookie third-round pick now has 10 total targets over his last two contests, and he's posted multiple receptions during each of the last four games. Luke Musgrave (kidney) is still out for the foreseeable future, so Kraft will operate as the primary pass-catching option at tight end for Green Bay yet again in a matchup very favorable to the position.
The Buccaneers have struggled containing production from TEs this season, despite their talented group of linebackers. Tampa Bay has given up a 74-776-4 line to the position, equating to 13.7 DK and 10.5 FD/Yahoo points surrendered per contest. Christian Watson (hamstring) appears set to miss another game for the Packers as well, meaning Kraft could continue to see his role expand.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jake Ferguson, DAL at BUF | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $17
DraftKings-only Special:
- George Kittle, SF at ARI | $5,800
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