RADIO
Welcome to the Week 14 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 14th main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Russell Wilson, DEN at LAC | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $26
Wilson has seemingly been undervalued all season, and although he may no longer be at the level of his Seahawks heyday, he's certainly capable of offering strong returns on his current salaries. That could be especially true this week, considering the Chargers have struggled with pass defense all season, even giving up some big plays to the Patriots' anemic air attack a week ago. Los Angeles checks in allowing the second-most passing yards per game (265.8), and the Bolts have also conceded four rushing TDs to quarterbacks.
Jake Browning, CIN vs. IND | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $20
Somewhat under the radar, Browning offered glimpses of being able to competently run the Bengals offense over his first game-plus under center, and he did so while operating with a short-handed receiving corps. He then had the talented Tee Higgins back at his disposal on Monday night against the Jaguars after the latter's recovery from a hamstring injury, and the results were remarkable. Browning put together a Joe Burrow-like performance versus Jacksonville in Cincy's thrilling overtime victory, throwing for 354 yards and a touchdown and adding another score on the ground.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Gardner Minshew, IND at CIN | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $27
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Zack Moss, IND at CIN | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $25
Moss may well have gotten on the wrong side of many DFS players in Week 13, his start in what's expected to be a multi-game stint as the lead back in place of Jonathan Taylor (thumb). Facing a stingy Titans defense, Moss netted just 51 yards on 19 carries and six yards on two catches, but as we know, last week doesn't necessarily have any bearing on this coming week in DFS. That's especially true when considering a player of Moss' talent is facing a defense that's had trouble slowing down the run most of the season, as the Bengals have given up 133.9 rushing yards per contest and 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs.
Alexander Mattison, MIN at LV | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $17
Mattison's salaries jump off the screen when considering his secure role and versatile skill set, not to mention the very appealing matchup. Only adding to his appeal this week is the fact he and his offensive line should be refreshed coming off a bye week. He also gets a major defensive-attention-diverter back on the field with him in the form of Justin Jefferson, who practiced in full Wednesday and therefore appears set to make his long-awaited return. Then, the Raiders come in surrendering 127 rushing yards per contest and 10 rushing TDs overall to running backs, along with a 61-420-2 line to the position.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Keaton Mitchell, BAL vs. LAR | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $21
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
DJ Moore, CHI vs. DET | DK: $6,500, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $25
Moore and Justin Fields have frequently connected for some big chunk plays this season, and the veteran wideout checks in having posted a stellar 18-210-1 line on 22 targets in Fields' first two games back from his thumb injury. That sample includes a 7-96-1 line in Week 11 versus the same Lions team he'll face again Sunday, one that's allowed 260.5 passing yards per road game and 14 touchdown receptions to wide receivers specifically.
Courtland Sutton, DEN at LAC | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $21
Sutton delivered nicely as a value suggestion in Week 13, recording his career-high ninth touchdown grab. The veteran has seen six to 11 targets in three of the past four contests as well, and he has a solid 11.7-yard aDOT and 39.4% share of the Broncos' air yards on the season. The Chargers' vulnerabilities against the pass were already discussed in Wilson's entry. In addition to the metrics cited there, it's worth noting Los Angeles has surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts (2,170) and is tied for the fourth-most receiving TDs (13) allowed to the position as well.
Zay Flowers, BAL vs. LAR | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $21
Flowers' impressive rookie season now sees him boasting a 58-613-2 line on 80 targets, and he's laying claim to 24.2% of the Ravens' targets. Flowers flashed his versatility with both receiving and rushing touchdowns in Week 12 against the Chargers before Baltimore's Week 13 bye. He now tangles with a Rams defense that's traveling across the country for a 1 PM ET game and has surrendered an elevated 13.3 yards per catch to wide receivers.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Tee Higgins, CIN vs. IND | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $18
Tight End DFS Value Plays
George Kittle, SF vs. SEA | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $23
Kittle has been consistently active in the air attack over the past several games after having to put in his share of work as a blocker at certain points early this season. The talented tight end is averaging a solid 5.3 receptions, 86.5 receiving yards, and a 25.9 percent target rate on routes run over the last six games. He now gets a chance to build on some solid recent performances versus a Seahawks team the Niners are big home favorites against, and one that's allowed a robust 64-659-2 line to tight ends through 12 games.
Cole Kmet, CHI vs. DET | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $17
Kmet is coming off a seven-catch tally in Week 12 against the Vikings before the Bears' Week 13 bye. He and Justin Fields will have had some extra time to reestablish their timing and chemistry over the time off after Fields' recent extended absence due to a thumb injury. Although the Lions did a good job against Kmet when the two teams met in Week 11 (3-20 on four targets), Detroit still makes for an excellent target considering the Lions are tied with multiple teams for the second-most touchdown catches surrendered to tight ends (six).
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Gerald Everett, LAC vs. DEN | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $16
DraftKings-Yahoo Special:
- Sam LaPorta, DET at CHI | DK: $6,100, Yahoo: $22
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