RADIO
Welcome to the Week 12 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 12th main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Baker Mayfield, TB at IND | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $27
Mayfield has been a pleasant surprise for the most part in offensive coordinator Dave Canales' scheme, even as the Buccaneers offense has sometimes produced middling results. The veteran has done a good job with ball security, committing just seven turnovers in 10 games. Mayfield has also thrown for over 245 yards in four of his past five games and tossed multiple touchdowns in three contests during that span. He now draws a matchup against a Colts defense that's allowed 263 passing yards per home game and a co-NFL-high 12.0 yards per completion in that split.
Baker Mayfield can make all the throws. He's certainly missed a few too, but he's on pace for 4,061 passing yards with 26 TDs & 10 INTs to go with 236 rushing yards. With that type of production, he's certainly a candidate to be QB1 next year and beyond. #Bucsfilm2023wk11 pic.twitter.com/RiawdPaz5R
— Steven Cheah (@StevenCheah) November 23, 2023
Gardner Minshew, IND vs. TB | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $27
The Bucs-Colts game could turn into a back-and-forth affair between two teams with pass defenses that can give up some big plays, putting Minshew in play at very similar salaries to Mayfield as well. The veteran has done a solid job leading the Colts offense after Anthony Richardson went on injured reserve, putting together a pair of 300-yard efforts in the process. The Buccaneers have surrendered an NFL-high 305 passing yards per game in the last three contests, along with a co-NFL-high 13.1 yards per completion in that span. Tampa Bay could also be missing both of its starting cornerbacks for this game, as Carlton Davis (hip) and Jamel Dean (ankle) both exited the Week 11 loss to the 49ers early.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Bryce Young, CAR at TEN | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $20
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Isiah Pacheco, KC at LVR | DK: $6,200, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $20
Pacheco ran with his usual gusto against the elite Eagles run defense on Monday night and nearly reached the 100-yard mark on 19 carries. He now draws a much more palatable matchup in Week 12. The Raiders have allowed 4.4 yards per carry at home, and they've also conceded an elevated 56-386-2 line to running backs overall. Pacheco's salaries are such that he doesn't need a lights-out performance to justify his rostering, but in a game where the Chiefs could take a notable lead, he could see a workload big enough to put up particularly impressive numbers.
Isiah Pacheco has entered this chat! 😤🔥 https://t.co/iJbFVnKzn2 pic.twitter.com/8uvEB1k2VF
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) November 12, 2023
Jerome Ford, CLE at DEN | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $22
Ford's salaries remain very reasonable overall, and he should continue handling a lead-back role in Sunday's favorable matchup against a Broncos defense that has improved as the season has unfolded but that still has its share of trouble stopping the run. Denver is still allowing an NFL-high 160 rushing yards per game, including 143 per contest in the last three. The Broncos are also yielding a co-NFL-high 4.8 yards per carry at home, and they've allowed 13 total touchdowns (nine rushing, four receiving) to running backs across 10 games.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jaylen Warren, PIT at CIN | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $26
Yahoo-only Special:
- James Conner, ARI vs. LAR | $18
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Gabe Davis, BUF at PHI | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $18
The Bills figure to have to remain aggressive Sunday against an Eagles team that will be able to hang some points on them, and Davis could be a primary beneficiary of the attention likely to be showered on Stefon Diggs. He could also likely be rostered at a lower-than-usual rate, considering many will flock to either Diggs or Khalil Shakir after his long touchdown last week. Philadelphia has also allowed 284 passing yards per home game and 10.1 yards per completion in that split, adding to Davis' appeal.
Josh Downs, IND vs. TB | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $21
Downs was very popular early in the season, but with a bye week and a pair of quiet weeks before the time off, he's been out of sight/out of mind for many DFS players for some time now. That makes for a great time to jump on the talented rookie, especially because his salaries have also seen a slight dip. The Buccaneers' defense could be short-handed as pointed out in Minshew's entry, and Downs has the type of speed to exploit the issues Tampa Bay has had preventing chunk plays through the air all season.
Josh Downs what a catch !!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/qK7jI2mLR5
— Jman (@jhardy252) November 12, 2023
Rashid Shaheed, NO at ATL | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $15
Shaheed's salaries are not reflective of his new expanded role in the Saints offense, one afforded to him by the placement of Michael Thomas (knee) on injured reserve during New Orleans' bye. Shaheed has already shown plenty with a No. 3 receiver role this season, putting up one 153-yard performance and a pair of 80+-yard tallies. With Shaheed now in a starting role and the second-year speedster already drawing 25.9% of the team's air yards, he's a very intriguing play against a Falcons defense that's allowed 11 receiving touchdowns to wideouts.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Marquise Brown, ARI vs. LAR | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $17
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dalton Kincaid, BUF at PHI | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $19
Kincaid is the second member of the Bills air attack that I'm willing to recommend against the Eagles, as the rookie tight end continues to impress the more he plays. Kincaid has arguably moved into the role of the second-most dependable pass-catching option for Josh Allen, and he'll check into this Week 12 showdown having recorded at least five catches in five straight games. Kincaid has both of his touchdowns thus far in the last four contests, and he's facing a Philadelphia squad that's tied with several teams for most touchdowns surrendered to tight ends (six) along with a 50-482 line to the position.
Dalton Kincaid WIDE OPEN FOR SIX 🔥
pic.twitter.com/gZ12gQtJWV— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 14, 2023
Evan Engram, JAX at HOU | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $21
Engram draws what might be the most palatable matchup for tight ends in the league, as the Texans check in having surrendered an NFL-high 72 receptions, fourth-most yards (635), and second-most DK points per game (15.8) to tight ends. Engram continues to be one of Trevor Lawrence's most trusted pass-catching options as well, drawing 22.3 percent of his team's targets and recording at least four receptions in every game thus far this season.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Taysom Hill, NO at ATL | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500, * listed as QB*: Yahoo: $20
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