RADIO
Welcome to the Week 10 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this tenth main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Sam Howell, WAS at SEA | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $28
The buzz has naturally been building around Howell as the season has unfolded thanks to him proving to be a very good fit for new coordinator Eric Bieniemy's pass-centric, aggressive system. The second-year signal-caller has already delivered five tallies of 290 yards or greater and has complemented his strong passing numbers with 157 rushing yards and another score on the ground.
The Seahawks are in no way the same soft matchup through the air that they were early in the season without Jamal Adams, but this should be another pass-heavy game regardless for Howell, considering Seattle has been mostly a shutdown run defense. With sheer volume alone, Howell should have a very good chance of outperforming his salaries, and the fact the Seahawks have given up a 44-230-1 line on the ground to QBs doesn't hurt his outlook either.
Sam Howell had some pretty impressive throws into tight windows or while getting hit (or both): pic.twitter.com/5xJ6CUxgkJ
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) November 6, 2023
Brock Purdy, SF at JAC | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $28
Purdy and his 49ers have had an extra week to both stew over their losing streak and regroup and refresh ahead of the second half of the season. There's no question some extra film study and practice time has been put in, but what also brightens Purdy's outlook this week is the expected return of Deebo Samuel from his shoulder injury.
The versatile asset's two-game absence naturally had an adverse effect on Purdy and the Niners offense as a whole, but his return, coupled with a matchup against a Jaguars defense that's been a heavy pass-funnel unit, should lead Purdy to a productive afternoon. Jacksonville checks in having allowed an NFL-high 296.0 yards per home game, along with 10.8 yards per completion in that split, and the Jags have surrendered 14 total touchdowns (11 passing, three rushing) over eight games as well.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Baker Mayfield, TB vs. TEN | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $25
DK-FanDuel Specials:
- Kyler Murray, ARI vs. ATL | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,500
- Geno Smith, SEA vs. WAS | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,900
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Joe Mixon, CIN at HOU | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $23
Mixon has been somewhat of a forgotten figure this season due to plenty of attention -- both positive and negative -- being heaped on the rest of his Bengals' skill-position teammates, but the veteran running back is still plugging way in a highly secure No. 1 role and therefore makes for an intriguing play at his salaries this week. Mixon just scored his third touchdown of the season Sunday night against the Bills, and although he's lacked for efficiency this season, he's a virtual lock for double-digit carries and draws a solid matchup in Week 10.
The Texans have allowed seven rushing touchdowns to running backs, along with a full 41-340-1 line through the air to the position over eight games. The Buccaneers' Rachaad White enjoyed what may have been his best all-around game of the season against Houston in Week 9, and Mixon could be in line for at least a slightly expanded role Sunday with Tee Higgins (hamstring) expected to sit out the contest and Ja'Marr Chase (back) potentially limited.
Joe Mixon muscles his way into the end-zone 💪pic.twitter.com/xH2BEXhd7s
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) November 6, 2023
Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. NO | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $13
Mattison hasn't done anything spectacular as Dalvin Cook's successor just yet, but the veteran back carries very reasonable salaries and is in position to head back into a true workhorse role with backfield mate Cam Akers having been lost for the season due to another Achilles tear. Mattison has already seen 16 or more carries on six occasions this season and does have a pair of tallies of greater than 90 rushing yards.
The fifth-year pro is also a talented receiver and just posted a 2-49-1 line through the air in Week 9 against the Falcons. The matchup against the Saints defense doesn't exactly stand out as particularly favorable from a season-long number perspective, but it bears noting New Orleans has surrendered an elevated 144.3 rushing yards per game over the last three and 4.5 yards per carry.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Bijan Robinson, ATL at ARI | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $13
- Gus Edwards, BAL vs. CLE | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $21
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Christian Kirk, JAC vs. SF | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $25
Kirk has proven to be one of Trevor Lawrence's steadiest pass-catching assets and should be ready to roll with fresh legs coming out of the Week 9 bye. The veteran already went into his off week with plenty of momentum, posting a 42-511-3 line since Week 2 while drawing at least six targets in all but one of those contests.
The 49ers have proven to be one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the league and have been downright generous through the air even when factoring that in, making Kirk a very appealing value consideration in what looks likely to be a very competitive matchup. San Francisco has faced a massive 68.4 percent opponent pass play rate on the road, and the Niners have given up the most receptions to WRs (129) of teams that have played eight games while also surrendering eight touchdowns to the position
Christian Kirk (vs. SF)
The Niners allow the 8th most fantasy points to slot WRs
Since Week 2, Kirk is averaging 15.7 FPPG - good for WR14
He’s been so consistent with 13+ points in 6 of 8 weeks
With a 45 point O/U this projects to be a good game
pic.twitter.com/dZKEbv4Tyo— Chris O'Brien (@17gamepace) November 9, 2023
Drake London, ATL at ARI | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $19
London has officially shed his injury designation after missing Week 9 due to a groin injury. The Falcons' top target will have a chance to work with a competent veteran in Taylor Heinicke, who he already started flashing some chemistry with in Week 8. In fact, London's injury occurred on a 21-yard reception on a pass from Heinicke, and he still finished with a solid 5-55 line on seven targets in that contest despite his early exit.
The Cardinals figure to be a lot more competitive with Kyler Murray returning to action Sunday, which should force Falcons head coach Arthur Smith into more of an aggressive passing attack that would benefit London. Arizona has a 118-1,566-8 line to wideouts as well, and London is laying claim to 23.3 percent of Atlanta's air yards while also drawing a target on over 22 percent of his routes.
Marquise Brown, ARI vs. ATL | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $15
Brown has slogged through some uneven quarterback play thus far this season, but that should theoretically all end Sunday with Kyler Murray's long-awaited season debut. The speedster and Murray should some very good rapport when they had a chance to play together last season, and there's little question he'll be a focal point of the quarterback's attention when dropping back Sunday.
Brown has managed to already put together some solid performances this season while playing with the since-traded Joshua Dobbs, scoring over 15 DK points on five occasions, including over 16 in each game over a four-week stretch in Weeks 2-5. The Falcons have had some trouble against the pass in recent weeks -- Atlanta has surrendered 233 passing yards per contest in the last three -- and Brown's speed always make him a candidate to outpace salaries like the ones he currently carries, especially against a defense that's also given up the third-most receiving TDs to wideouts (11).
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jahan Dotson, WAS at SEA | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $17
- Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. HOU | DK: $4,600, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $14
DraftKings-FanDuel Special:
- DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at TB | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,100
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dalton Schultz, HOU at CIN | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $21
Schultz is undoubtedly going to be highly popular this week after his breakout 10-130-1 line against the Buccaneers in Week 9, but he's an example of "good chalk," both for his salaries and the fact his matchup might be even better this week. The veteran also has a strong body of work overall that goes beyond his numbers vs. Tampa Bay, as he's posted a 33-350-4 line overall on a robust 50 targets in eight games.
The Bengals have generally been very good about limiting wide receiver production but have been vulnerable to tight ends, surrendering a 51-531-4 line to the position across eight games. Cincy is giving up an 81 percent catch rate to the position as well, and Schultz has logged at least seven targets on four occasions already this season.
C.J. Stroud has Dalton Schultz and the Texans take the lead!
📺: #TBvsHOU on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/d4RDZpcMkc pic.twitter.com/E48bma9WZ0— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023
Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. NYG | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $15
Ferguson came through handsomely as a value suggestion in Week 9 against the Eagles, so we'll keep rolling with him in Week 10 in a matchup the Cowboys are thoroughly expected to dominate. There's admittedly some concern about a blowout causing Dallas to take its foot off the gas prematurely, especially with Tommy Devito starting for New York, but Ferguson's salaries are such that it shouldn't play too much into our thinking.
The Giants haven't been particularly poor against tight ends -- they've yielded an acceptable 31-375-1 line to the position -- but Ferguson is an athletic and sneaky field-stretching asset that is averaging a solid 10.3 yards per catch and an encouraging 5.6 yards after the catch per reception. With plenty of New York's attention likely to gravitate to CeeDee Lamb and Ferguson having recorded 11 receptions for 138 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games alone, he's certainly worth a look at his salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Irv Smith Jr., CIN vs. HOU | DK: $2,700, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $10
DraftKings-Only Special:
- Taysom Hill, NO at MIN | $5,100
DraftKings-FanDuel Special:
- Sam LaPorta, DET at LAC | DK: $5,700, FanDuel: $6,500
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