RADIO
Welcome to the Divisional Round main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this Divisional Round weekend main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Baker Mayfield, TB at DET | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $28
Mayfield has been defying doubters all season, and he dispelled any doubts about his ability to carry the momentum into the postseason with his wild-card performance against the Eagles. The veteran signal-caller threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles, and he now gets a crack at another vulnerable pass defense in a game Tampa Bay goes into knowing it will have to remain aggressive in.
The Lions have allowed 253.4 passing yards per contest since the start of the regular season at an NFC-high 11.5 yards per completion. However, Detroit has been even more vulnerable of late, giving up 346.3 passing yards per contest and 12.8 yards per completion in the last three games specifically. Meanwhile, Mayfield has thrown for multiple TDs in five of the last six games, with the only exception coming in the Week 18 win over the Panthers where he was clearly affected by his rib injury.
Baked Mayfield’s best plays from the victory over the Eagles. I will forever struggle to understand Cleveland’s willingness to so quickly move on from Baker. Doubted so many times along the way, he belongs in the league as a franchise Quarterback. pic.twitter.com/MfhKsukyJ6
— Max McDulin (@maxmcdulin) January 16, 2024
DraftKings-FanDuel Special:
- Jordan Love, GB at SF | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,400
FanDuel-Only Special:
- C.J. Stroud, HOU at BAL | $7,200
DraftKings-Yahoo-Only Special:
- Jared Goff, DET vs. TB | DK: $6,300, Yahoo: $27
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners. A valued RotoBaller Premium subscriber won half a MILLION dollars in Week 3! Join in on the winning and get your edge with our NFL Premium Pass which includes our exclusive DFS Cheat Sheets, the #1 Lineup Optimizer, and access to our VIP Chatrooms. RotoBaller's Premium Pass comes with a 100% money-back guarantee. Gain access now!
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. TB | DK: $6,600, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $27
Gibbs is priced reasonably enough where he qualifies as a value play, especially given his significant upside. The explosive rookie can score from anywhere on the field and either as a runner or a receiver, and despite the matchup not lining up as the most appealing on paper, Gibbs scored 11 total touchdowns during the regular season and tallied another rushing score in the wild-card win over the Rams, and he also contributed 12 plays of 20+ yards across 15 games.
The Bucs have allowed only 92.3 rushing yards per game since the start of the season, but they also conceded a 76-448-2 line through the air to running backs. Gibbs' ability in space is game-breaking, and he could well be involved plenty as both runner and receiver in the fast track of his home field, where he averaged 5.0 yard per carry during the regular season.
This Jahmyr Gibbs juke is FILTHY ❄️
pic.twitter.com/WjJQroW7Bn— Footballism (@FootbaIIism) January 17, 2024
James Cook, BUF vs. KC | DK: $6,300, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $24
Much like Gibbs, Cook is a high-ceiling asset that carries reasonable salaries, but in the Bills' running back's case, he brings the added advantage of having a more stable and secure workload, especially since the change at offensive coordinator for Buffalo. Cook has averaged 16.3 rush attempts and 77.2 rushing yards per contest since Week 10, adding 2.9 receptions and 26.6 receiving yards in that sample as well.
The Chiefs have allowed 111.2 rushing yards per game since the start of the regular season, and Kansas City gave up a generous 4.6 yards per carry to running backs specifically during the regular season. KC also surrendered a 75-474-4 line through the air to running backs, which certainly bodes well for a running back as versatile as Cook that can pop for 20-30 fantasy points in any given game.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Gus Edwards, BAL vs. HOU | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $19
- Devin Singletary, HOU at BAL | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $21
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Zay Flowers, BAL vs. HOU | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $24
Flowers was highly impressive as a rookie, posting a 77-858-5 line over 16 games. The first-round pick has developed into Lamar Jackson's favorite target in the absence of Mark Andrews, and compiling eight, 10 and 13 looks in three of the last five contests of the season. Flowers will undoubtedly be busy once again Saturday in Andrews' absence, and with Houston's offense posing a legitimate threat, it's likely Baltimore is aggressive well into the game even with a lead.
131 seconds of Zay Flowers making plays pic.twitter.com/JnfQwxhGdj
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 16, 2024
Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. KC | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $19
Shakir produced a dynamic touchdown reception against the Steelers in the wild-card win on Monday afternoon that showed off his speed and run-after catch prowess. The second-year speedster should be in line for another start Sunday with Gabriel Davis (knee) still sidelined, and while the Chiefs' secondary certainly wasn't very inviting to throw against, there's little doubt that the Bills will remain highly aggressive offensively considering the quarterback on the other sideline and their past postseason failings against the Chiefs.
Josh Reynolds, DET vs. TB | DK: $3,700, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $11
Reynolds is a long-time favorite of Jared Goff since their Rams days, and while Jameson Williams has taken over the No. 2 role on paper, the veteran has continued to produce. Reynolds has a 10-124 line on 14 targets over the last pair of contests, and the Bucs-Lions clash has the feel of a likely pass-heavy game. Tampa Bay was very good against the run all season as outlined in Gibbs' entry, which led to the Bucs facing a 61.5 percent pass play rate since the start of the campaign and giving up 41 DK/33.2 FD and Yahoo points per game to wideouts.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Dontayvion Wicks, GB at SF | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $18
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Isaiah Likely, BAL vs. HOU | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $13
Mark Andrews reportedly made some significant strides this week in his ongoing recovery from an ankle injury, but he's been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Texans. The second-year tight end has been very productive in Andrews' absence, posting a 21-322-5 line over the six games he started to close out the season. Likely logged four to seven targets in four of those six contests, and while that doesn't equate to a particularly expansive role, his matchup against a Texans defense that allowed an NFL-high 107 receptions to tight ends during the regular season puts him firmly in play.
RAVENS GET A 40 YARD TOUCHDOWN TO ISAIAH LIKELY ON 4TH AND 7
LAMAR JACKSON IS YOUR MVP
pic.twitter.com/CFKNzBDwkz— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) December 31, 2023
Cade Otton, TB at DET | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $10
Otton will likely be very popular this week after his breakout eight-catch, 89-yard showing versus the Eagles in the wild-card win, but the interest from the DFS community is justified. The second-year pro has proven capable of some solid fantasy performances relative to his current salaries on several occasions, and he faces another appealing matchup for tight ends Sunday. The Lions finished the regular season allowing an 83-940-6 line to tight ends, and Otton and the rest of the air attack should remain heavily involved against a Detroit team that has faced the league's fifth-highest pass play rate (61.1 percent) since the start of the season, including a 67.9 percent figure in the last three games.
DraftKings-Only Special:
- Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. KC | $4,800
Yahoo-Only Special:
- Travis Kelce, KC at BUF | $16
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
