NextGen Stats - Wide Receiver/Tight End Breakdowns and Takeaways

December 11, 2020

Antonio Losada provides fantasy football updates from Week 13 for wide receivers and tight ends, using NextGen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions for the 2020 NFL season.

You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming: the fantasy football regular season is over (in most leagues and for our purposes at least), and it's time to gear up for that deep playoff run toward the championship. It's just three more weeks and fantasy contests for most GMs out there, so if you're still alive and trying to make a deep playoff run ending in a championship, you better not let any valuable bit of information slip through the cracks.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

Week 13 - TE/WR Air Yards Breakdown - NextGenStats

If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know Air Yards tells us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed.) I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY), and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of Air Yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total Air Yards.

At this point into the season, we have enough data to assess what and what not is going on at the wide receiver and tight end positions. This means Air Yard values are already stabilized, with high chances of staying on similar levels for the rest of the season.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 33 targets for both WR and TE.

Cushion / Separation

Correlation with Fantasy Points: negative-14% / negative-6%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• There has been virtually no change in the correlation percentages of both metrics from three weeks ago, and the two of them have stayed on the negative side of things also, which makes sense historically.
• Don't get too high on any of those two relationships, though. Neither of them is reaching 15%, so it is not that SEP or CUSH explains a lot about how good a wideout/tight end performs in fantasy terms, much less predict future performance.

• Last time's SEP-leader (Isaiah Wright) failed to qualify for this week's column, while Demarcus Robinson and Deebo Samuel were both on the verge of missing out with 34 and 33 targets respectively.
• Robert Tonyan could very well be considered the SEP-leader this week, as he's at 4.4 yards of separation while also being the only player of those qualified with more than 37 targets among those in the top-7.
• That large separation comes down to Tonyan's putrid negative-1.7 YAC above (below) expectation. Defenses just let him work however he wants knowing that he won't do much once he catches the ball.

• Only seven players qualified while having SEP-marks of 4.0+ yards through Week 13. On the other hand, only two players are still qualifying while having <2.0-yard SEP marks (DeVante Parker and A.J. Green).
• There are 9 tight ends inside the top-22 players with the highest SEP marks compared to only 5 inside the bottom-22.

• The Jets rookie Denzel Mims is being handed the smallest cushion among all qualified pass-catchers, at just 4.7 yards. Four more players are below 5.0 yards, and among those only Davante Adams (4.8 yards) is averaging more than 12 PPR points per game. Cushion-proof, I guess we could label Adams.
• In fact, there are only three players (Adams, Will Fuller V, and Brandon Aiyuk) averaging 15+ PPR points on the year while having one of the lowest-15 CUSH marks.
• At the opposite end of the spectrum, Marquise Brown is still causing true fear in his cover men as he's been given the highest cushion (7.5 yards) among all qualified players. Even having a really bad season, defenders are still respecting him--and the WR is still not taking advantage of those 7+ yards of distance at the moment of the snap.
• Corey Davis, virtually given the same cushion as Brown, is averaging 6+ PPR points more than Brown this season. Davis is the only player above 14+ PPR points per game while having a top-10 cushion mark.

• There are 18 qualified pass-catchers averaging 16+ PPR points per game through W13. They are averaging:
  • 5.8 CUSH yards
  • 3.0 SEP yards
• There are 70qualified pass-catchers averaging <10 PPR points per game through W13. They are averaging:
  • 6.0 CUSH yards
  • 3.0 SEP yards
• As you see, and as the correlation percentages above show, there is a very discardable difference between both groups, rendering these two metrics more descriptive than predictive.

• Deebo Samuel is on a league of his own when it comes to his combined CUSH+SEP mark for the season, at 11.3 yards. Three players are next tied for second at 10.9 yards (Demarcus Robinson, Curtis Samuel, and David Moore).
• At the other end, DeVante Parker (6.6) and Denzel Mims (6.8) are the only players below 7.0 yards of CUSH+SEP through Week 13. A.J. Green ranks third precisely at 7.0 yards.

Targeted Air Yards / % Share of Team's Air Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 3% / 60%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy point he scores.
• Nine of the top-10 TAY% players are averaging 14+ FP/G through Week 13, and six of them are posting 16+ FP/G marks.
• That contrasts a lot with the other end of the TAY% leaderboard, where only four of the bottom-25 players are currently averaging 10+ FP/G.

• If you're looking for one-man wrecking crews, look no further than these three teams/players: Terry McLaurin (WAS), D.J. Moore (CAR), and Marquise Brown (BAL) are the only players still having a TAY% above 40 percent this deep into the season.
• Carolina's case is really insane. Not only is D.J. Moore a top-3 player, but Robby Anderson (Moore's partner in crime) is also a top-7 player with a 36.5 TAY% himself. The two receivers make up for 78.4 percent of all Panthers' targeted air yards this season.
• Minnesota's one-two punch of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson ranks second at an already distant 71.7 percent of the Vikings' combined TAY%.

• Looking at raw, counting stats, it's the Raiders which have the two highest-TAY pair of pass-catchers in Ruggs (17.7 TAY) and Agholor (14.9).
• The Chargers are second at that, with Guyton and Mike Williams combining for 32.3 TAY compared to Ruggs-Agholor's 32.6.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the only player still above 18.0 TAY through Week 13, followed by Ruggs (17.7) and three more players at 16+ TAY.
• Deebo Samuel--quite obvious--is trailing every other qualified pass-catcher with a ridiculously low 2.1 TAY through the year. No one is below 4.0 other than Samuel, with Gerald Everett ranking second from the bottom already at 4.2 TAY.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster has been disappointing for a lot of fantasy GMs with exceedingly high expectations. But JuJu has excelled at his game and the role he's been asked to play. He's been targeted a very healthy 94 times with a very-low 5.6 TAY, yet he's at 14.2 FP/G through the year. He's the only pass-catcher averaging as many points while having fewer than 6.0 TAY through Week 13.
• Deebo has been impressive after the catch, which has made up for his ultra-low TAY mark of 2.1. His 12.3 YAC leads the league by a mile.

• The top-43 TAY marks belong to wide receivers, followed by three tight ends from the 44th to 46th spots.
• There are 18 tight ends in the bottom-30 TAY averages. The contrast can't be much higher.
• Something similar happens in terms of team-yardage, with just one tight end (Travis Kelce) ranking inside the top-40 TAY% players at 25.7 percent. Again, 18 players among the bottom-30 TAY% players are tight ends.

• Pass-catchers with a 14+ TAY: 9.7 FP/G.
• Pass-catchers with a TAY below 8 yards: 10.3 FP/G.

• Tight ends are averaging 7.7 yards down the field and 9.4 fantasy points per game.
• Wide receivers are at a 10.9 aDOT and averaging 11.4 FP/G.

• The 25 pass-catchers currently averaging 15+ FP/G have aDOT marks ranging from 5.6 (JuJu) to 15.2 (Calvin Ridley), with an average of 10.2 yards.
• Only three tight ends are in this group (Kittle, Kelce, and Waller) and they have aDOT values of 6.5, 8.9, and 6.7 yards respectively. The difference comes in the TAY% marks, as Kittle has a low 11.6% share compared to Kelce's and Waller's sublime 25.7% and 23.5% shares in KC and LV respectively.

Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 82% / 78% / 31% / 72%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• With four games still on the schedule, 13 pass-catchers have already broken the 100-target mark and six more are less than 10 targets from reaching that mark.
• Had I to bet, I'd say that around 30-to-35 players could reasonably finish the year with 100+ targets, while the 19 players mentioned in the point above should break the 100-mark by the end of next week's games.
• Stefon Diggs was the first player to reach 100 targets this season, but since the last time we checked (Week 10) he's been surpassed by Keenan Allen in total targets through the year. Allen is now the only player with more than 121 targets, with Diggs the only other player with 120+.

• While Allen has the most targets, he has not been as efficient as Diggs. Allen has caught just 67.7 percent of his targets compared to Diggs' 74.4 percent mark. That, coincidentally, has both receivers tied at 90 receptions each.
• Davante Adams and Tyler Lockett are the only two players with catch rates above 75 percent that have been targeted 100+ times this season.
• On the low-efficiency front, A.J. Green has been a disaster with a putrid 43.2% catch rate on 81 targets. Only Jerry Jeudy (46.3%) is also below 50% while having more than 53 targets (Jeudy has been targeted 82 times).

• Green and Jeudy are joined by Jeff Smith (45.7%) and MVS (46.3%) as the only four qualified pass-catchers with a catch rate below 50%.
• Only Robert Tonyan and Curtis Samuel qualify for the NGS leaderboards while having a catch rate above 85% through Week 13.
• Five tight ends are inside the top-15 catch-rate pass-catchers of the season at this point.
• Only two tight ends are inside the bottom-15 catch-rate pass-catchers so far.

• As bad as MVS has been at catching throws, he also has the highest YPR mark at 20.7 yards per catch. He's the only player above 20 yards. Ruggs is second at 19.8 yards and both D.J. Moore and Jalen Guyton are tied for third at 18.5.
• Justin Jefferson leads all qualified pass-catchers at 12.4 Y/T. He's the only player above 12 yards. Rashard Higgins is second at 11.8 (although on just 25 targets) and Will Fuller V ranks third at 11.7.
• Zach Ertz's nightmarish season shows in that he trails all qualified receivers in Y/T at 4.3. Only Larry Fitzgerald (7.8) has been worse than Ertz in YPR this season, just in case you thought Ertz might be good at something else. Not the case, folks.

• Both Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams are tied for the most touchdowns scored with 13 each. Two more players have 10+, yet no one is precisely at 10 through Week 13.
• Eight of 130 qualified players (min. 33 targets) have yet to catch a touchdown pass. Larry Fitzgerald is the one who has missed on it the most, leading that group with 57 targets through W13.
• Of players with at least two touchdowns, Kendrick Bourne is logging the most targets-between-scores of all qualified players at 52. Robby Anderson is a close second at 51 targets per TD.
• The most efficient scorers have been two tight ends: Robert Tonyan (6 targets per touchdown) and Jonnu Smith (7). Thielen is the best high-volume scorer, getting a TD for each 7.3 targets while having 87 targets to his name already.
• Two players (Jonnu and Mike Evans) share the highest TD:REC ratio at 0.23, turning almost 25 percent of their receptions into scores.
• Robby Anderson and Cooper Kupp have the worst TD:REC ratios among players with 2+ TDs, at just 3 percent.

Yards / Air Yards / YAC%

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): 87% / 78% / 0%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• While 13 receivers have reached 100 targets already, only seven are past 1,000 receiving yards on the season led by DK Metcalf... who is followed by TE Travis Kelce!
• Congratulations if you drafted Kelce, even if you did with the first-overall pick. He's been a monster while playing at a hella thin position in fantasy leagues.
• The second-best tight end (Waller) is at just 742 yards and averaging 15.9 FP/G compared to Kelce's 20.0 FP/G, which ranks third among all qualified pass-catchers.

• I predicted some numbers related to season-end targets, and I'm doing the same here for yardage. I think at least 20 players are on their way to break the 1,000-yard mark this season as long as they stay healthy.
• Metcalf should be close to reaching 1,500 yards by the end of the season, and while Kelce and Hill should get close to it, the Chiefs offense is a surefire unit but you never know who will end eating the most each week so I'm not sure if any of the two will get there.

• Of the 78 pass-catchers with 50+ targets this season, the YAC% marks vary wildly from 61.8% (Noah Fant) to just 17.0% (Calvin Ridley).
• The top-10 receivers in YAC% among those 78 are averaging 12.3 FP/G. The bottom-10 are averaging 11.7 FP/G.
• Looking at it from the other side: the top-10 of those in FP/G are averaging 33.0 percent YAC% while the bottom-10 sits at 34.6 YAC%.

• The 31 qualified tight ends are getting an average of 42.6% of their total yards after the catch on average. That is way above the wide receivers' mark of 35.7%. Nothing surprising, considering most receivers are faster than TEs but have less strength.
• Every qualified player with the exception of Deebo Samuel has racked up more than 100 yards through the air. Jeff Smith has the lowest mark at 105. Deebo Samuel is at negative-15 yards.
• Currently, 30 players have yet to reach 200 air yards through the season. Of those, 14 are tight ends and 16 are wide receivers.
• On the other hand, Travis Kelce is the only tight end among the 19 pass-catchers with 500+ air yards through W13. No other tight end has even reached 380 air yards (Mike Gesicki, 377 air yards, the 38th-overall player in aYDS).

Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): 12% / 3% / 17%

Leaders and Trailers: 

Leaderboard Notes:

• While the relationship between these three metrics and fantasy points isn't great, the YAC Above Expectation (+/-, or YACOE) is strong enough to consider it somehow meaningful. It makes sense, as talent ultimately rises to the top and those posting more YAC than it has happened through the history of the model are more often than not the better players overall.
• These are only yards after the catch, though, and not total yards (meaning we're not factoring air yards into the equation).
• That is why some fantasy (and real-life) monsters such as Stefon Diggs and Tyler Lockett are averaging 17+ FP/G while also having a negative-0.5/0.6 YACOE each. They are unstoppable on the passing game, but they do most of their work before catching the ball while looking bad in the YAC department (I don't think they're too worried about it judging by their seasons, though...).

• The YACOE leading-spot has changed hands every time we have checked the leaderboards through the season. Jamison Crowder led the way in Week 4. The no. 1 spot was taken by Deebo Samuel in Week 7. It then belonged to Jalen Guyton at 3.3. And it is now back to Deebo (although, actually, it should be A.J. Brown's prize given his 72 targets compared to Deebo's 42).
• That last note also made Brown the leading player on both heavy usage and high YACOE over the year, and it is the case once more through W13. Shouts to Brown for pulling the feat off on back-to-back columns.
• Terry McLaurin would rank second at a distant 2.0 YACOE among players with at least 50 targets through 13 weeks of play.

• The correlation between the top-10 players in YACOE through W10 and their fantasy points can't be higher, but then drops a lot among players with 1.0+ YACOE.
  • Top-10 YACOE players: 14.2 FP/G.
  • Players with 1.0+ YACOE: 11.1 FP/G.
• Players with a YACOE of 1.5+ are averaging 12.5 FP/G, but there are pass-catchers skewing those results and extreme outliers: that group includes Jalen Guyton's 6.2 FP/G and also DK Metcalf's 18.9 FP/G.

• Similar to what happened three weeks ago, the 129 qualified pass-catchers this week are averaging a 0.5 YACOE mark. That means the receiving game is a bit better this season than it has historically been when it comes to getting yardage after the catch.

• Only 34 of the 129 receivers (26%) are currently under-performing in YACOE, having marks below the neutral/average 0.0.
• Of those 34 "underperforming" players, nine (26%) are tight ends, and the rest are wide receivers (74%).

• Deebo Samuel is an extreme outlier in xYAC, averaging 7.8 yards per target compared to the second-largest mark of 6.3 (Henry Ruggs III).
• Only seven players are at 6.0+ xYAC through W13, which makes up for just a tiny 5.4% of all qualified pass catchers.
• Tonyan and Mo Alie-Cox are the only two tight ends at 6.0+ xYAC this season, although T.J. Hockenson and Hayden Hurst are both this close to them at 5.9 xYAC each.

• Outside of stupid Deebo Samuel (12.3 YAC), Jalen Guyton leads the league in actual yards after the catch at 8.0. No other player is up there, with only five more pass-catchers at 7.0+ yards.
• Danny Amendola ranks fourth in YAC (7.4) but has not scored a touchdown this season. He's the only player with more than 5.7 YAC per target that has yet to score a TD.
• On the other end, Adam Thielen has scored 12 touchdowns while posting a YAC mark of just 2.8 yards. He's been the player with the fewest work to do after the catch and the highest touchdown-scoring return combined at just 0.23 YAC per TD.
• Henry Ruggs has had to work the most for his touchdowns (2), averaging 3.65 YAC per TD, followed closely by another Raider in Hunter Renfrow (2 TDs, 3.55 YAC/TD).

• Terry McLaurin has amassed the most YAC this season with 713. No other player has broken the 700-yards after the catch mark through W13 (Cooper Kupp, 693).
• Kelce (655) and Waller (610) are the only two tight ends with 600+ YAC on the year. Noah Fant is third at a distant 462 YAC.
• Six players have qualified while still having fewer than 100 YAC through W13: Adam Humphries, OBJ, Rashard Higgins, Greg Olsen, Jared Cook, and Michael Thomas.
• Michael Sanders has the fewest YAC (113) among players with 50+ targets with 13 weeks gone.

• A.J. Brown has gained the most "extra" yards after the catch of all qualified receivers with 281 of those. Only Terry McLaurin (216) has also broken the 200-yard barrier.
• Robert Tonyan has lost the most expected yards after the catch, posting up 80 fewer YAC than he should, given the historical model used by NGS. Tyler Lockett and Stefon Diggs are tied for the "worst" wide receivers, having lost 61 such yards each.

• Adam Thielen is the only player with 13+ FP/G on the year that is averaging fewer than 3.0 YAC through W13. He is the WR5 on a per-game basis this season.
• Davante Adams, Diggs, Lockett, Ridley, and Cole Beasley are the only players with 14+ FP/G currently underperforming their xYAC (negative YACOE). Even then, and with the exception of Beasley (WR27), they are all ranked WR11 or better on a per-game basis.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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