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Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Kirk Cousins vs. Daniel Jones for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is the Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of QBs Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
QB13 - ADP: 107th Overall
You could say that the 2022 season was one of disappointment for Kirk Cousins. His 18.0 FPPG was his lowest in three years as well as his passing touchdowns (29) dipped below 30 for the first time since 2019. This could all be chalked up to a classic case of inefficiency when it comes to Cousins last year. His passing yardage (4,547) was the second highest of his career and if you look deeper into the analytics for his season, the numbers were in his favor to finish higher than QB11 on the year in FPPG.
He was Top 10 across the board in several key categories such as pass attempts (643), red zone attempts (109), and touchdowns. He was even the QB1 in deep ball accuracy last year (6.8%) thanks in large part to Justin Jefferson's insane ability to separate downfield. This leads you to ask the question, where did things go wrong? To put it plain and simple, it was turnovers. He was tied for third in the league with 14 interceptions on the year which caused his QBR to plummet to 49.8 (QB23). Not to mention he was hit at a tremendous rate last year with 46 sacks which was third most in the league.
Now as we head into the 2023 season, you have to ask yourself, can Cousins take a step towards being considered as a Top 10 QB in the NFL and in fantasy again? With five straight seasons being ranked outside the Top 10 in FPPG, you could settle in on the fact that he has just hit his peak. But going into the second season of Head Coach Kevin O'Connell's offense and the departure of running back Dalvin Cook, it can be expected that Cousins will shoulder more of the weight on offense.
Add in the positive acquisition of route technician Jordan Addison in the NFL Draft to replace the slowed Adam Thielen and you should see an uptick in passing efficiency. With all of this in mind, a rebound for Cousins in 2023 is not out of the realm of possibility as he could exceed 20.0 FPPG for only the second time in his career.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
QB14 - ADP: 103rd Overall
To say that the 2022 season was a career year for Daniel Jones would be an understatement. His 18.4 FPPG (QB10) was his highest to date and was due in large part to his undervalued abilities as a running quarterback. He finished the season with 708 yards on the ground (QB5), which was almost as much as he has had the last two seasons combined. Different from Kirk Cousins, Jones' success had more to do with efficiency added to the rushing numbers.
Looking deeper into his passing numbers, he ranked low in most of the important categories. The Giants were 25th in the league in pass plays per game (30.6) which limited Jones to 15 passing touchdowns on the year (QB21) on only 472 attempts (QB14). With the limitations in the passing game, he ranked as the QB5 in accuracy rating (8.0) while exceeding his expected FPPG, which was only 17.1 and would have been QB14 on the season.
All of this led to a new four-year contract with the Giants for Jones as they head into the second year under Brian Daboll. Although the additions have been the ire of many jokes, the Giants have tried to better the offensive weapons at Jones's disposal. Most important is the acquisition of the big-bodied target of Darren Waller, giving Jones a credible threat down the middle of the field and in the red zone. Once you look to the outside, it could be a guessing game week-to-week on who will be the most targeted receiver for the Giants between Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, Darius Slayton, or rookie Jalin Hyatt.
Add in the fact that the team was able to work a new deal with Saquon Barkley and Jones will have the best collection of talent to work with to date. The question with Jones when it comes to fantasy production will be if Daboll and the Giants put more emphasis on the progression of Jones as a passer and move away from the 50-50 run-to-pass ratio that we saw in 2022. If they can present him with more opportunities to score in 2023, then a repeat as a Top 10 QB in FPPG could easily be within reach.
Fantasy Football Verdict
In looking at these two quarterbacks, it can be a tad bit deceiving as one is more highly ranked (Cousins) while the other is being drafted ahead based on the current ADP consensus (Jones). As is always the question, who is the better pick for fantasy managers? Both of these quarterbacks are currently being selected outside the range of QB1, placing them both as potential depth picks for managers in 1-QB formats or QB2s in superflex leagues. The decision between these two players comes down to preference in your roster build.
One player presents a solid floor due to his rushing ability but has no great upside as a passer. While the other holds solid value as a passing QB, but little to no value in the rushing department. As close as this call may be, I will lean toward Kirk Cousins if I am making the call. I have more confidence in the Vikings' offense as a whole and believe that Cousins should bounce back and exceed 30 passing touchdowns again in 2023. Not to mention, the defense is slightly worse than the Giants currently, which put Cousins in better game scripts for fantasy production.
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