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Jeremy's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 17 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's time for the Week 17 edition of our Unlikely Aces column for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. In this piece, we discuss surprising pitchers who are going above and beyond expectations, providing your team with unlikely ace production that not many were expecting. Some performances are more sustainable than others, so we'll dive into each pitcher to see how likely it is for them to maintain their recent form.
Starting pitching is by far the most volatile and risky position in fantasy, as every year plenty of top arms are sidelined with injuries. This season is no different, with players such as Garrett Crochet missing extended time, Cole Ragans out for the season, and Tarik Skubal recently returning from a lengthy absence of his own. That's why it's important to find these unlikely aces to fill the gaps throughout the year.
This week, we're focusing on Troy Melton, Jake Bennett, and Brandon Young. All three of this trio are youngsters who are in their first or second major league seasons, and they have been far more reliable than anyone expected them to be. However, hitters can adjust to new pitchers over time, so we'll take a look at whether these pitchers can keep it going.
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Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers
67% Rostered
Troy Melton has been nothing short of elite since joining the Tigers’ rotation on May 24th, posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 55 innings spanning nine starts. He’s allowed one run or less in seven of those nine starts, while striking out 50 batters and walking 15.
In his most recent outing, the righty allowed one run on four hits and four walks with nine strikeouts over 5 ⅔ innings. If you notice the uptick in strikeouts compared to his season-long performance, that has actually been a trend over his past four starts.
In that time, the 25-year-old has struck out 31 batters in 23 ⅓ innings, which represents elite production in the only category he was lacking in his first five starts of the year. His 35.6% strikeout rate over that span is certainly something you’d expect from a fantasy ace, not someone you picked up on the waiver wire two months ago. That is over a 20 percent increase from the 15.6% strikeout rate he posted through his first five starts, and the catalyst for this improvement is clear.
Melton’s average fastball velocity increased to over 97 mph in his four most recent starts, up from between 95 and 96 in his first five appearances. The fastball wasn’t the only pitch that he started throwing harder, as he added three miles per hour to his cutter, which started consistently sitting at 93 mph.
BAA Leaders, Last 30 Days (Qualified SP)
1. Troy Melton .111
2. Dylan Cease .129
3. Trey Yesavage .133
4. Trevor Rogers .157
5. Kyle Bradish .158pic.twitter.com/OYuslpj366— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) July 17, 2026
He is getting way more swings and misses since the velocity bump, and in his most recent start, induced a 40% whiff rate on both the fastball and cutter. This new approach with his arsenal is clearly working, and there have been no signs of him slowing down. Assuming he can maintain this new velocity, there's no reason to think he can't keep things up as a standout fantasy starter.
Verdict: Melton won’t be available on many waiver wires at 67% rostered, but that number should be much closer to 100%. If he’s somehow available in your league, consider him a must-add. It may be hard to trade for Melton considering how well he’s pitched, but if you are already lucky enough to have him, don’t be eager to sell high.
Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox
59% Rostered
Jake Bennett recently tossed six shutout innings against the Rays on July 17th, which was a great follow-up to the seven shutout frames he threw against the White Sox before the break. In nine starts this season, he’s posted an excellent 2.35 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 53 ⅔ innings, which is surprising considering his lack of prospect pedigree.
There were doubts in the beginning about his volume and efficiency, as he failed to pitch six full innings in each of his first four outings. However, his five starts since have each been six innings or more, and two of his last three performances have been for at least seven frames.
Jake Bennett continues to dazzle.
7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
8 whiffs
31% CSWSwing-and-miss stuff wasn't there, but his command and called strikes were. Additionally, he's getting batters to chase at a 40.4 percent clip 😮
Must-roster player. pic.twitter.com/x2Smoj92pK
— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) July 9, 2026
The main concern with the 25-year-old is his lack of strikeouts, as he currently holds a 23rd-percentile strikeout rate of 18.7%. A big part of that is a lack of breaking stuff, as he has thrown his fastball, sinker, and changeup a combined 86.5% of the time. That leaves him throwing a sweeper at a 5.1% clip and a curveball 4.6% of the time, which isn’t a recipe to induce many whiffs.
Still, he’s thrived by posting an elite 4.4% walk rate while limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground at a 50% rate. While he doesn’t force many swings and misses, he’s clearly still deceptive, as his 37.3% chase rate ranks in the 96th percentile. The underlying metrics seem to back up his performance for the most part, as his 2.98 xERA ranks in the 88th percentile.
Verdict: The lack of strikeouts is a problem that hasn’t shown any signs of correcting itself, which puts a cap on his upside from a fantasy perspective. That many balls in play typically leads to volatility, so I do expect some bad starts eventually to bring his ratios down to a more reasonable level. While I don’t expect him to be an ace for the remainder of the year, Bennett is still proving to be a solid fantasy arm that is worth plugging into your lineup each week.
Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles
31% Rostered
Brandon Young delivered his second straight seven-inning performance on Sunday against the Astros, allowing one run on five hits and one walk with seven strikeouts. He’s only allowed more than three runs in a start twice this season, and currently possesses a 3.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
The highlight of his season came on June 27th against the Nationals, where he garnered 23 whiffs while striking out eight over five innings. However, he mostly returned to normal following the gem, with 17 strikeouts over 19 innings, although they were successful starts for the most part, regardless.
Brandon Young's final line vs. Astros:
7 innings
5 hits
1 run
1 walk
7 strikeoutsMust be something about being deep in the heart of Texas that has Young at his best. pic.twitter.com/stb7OqvRbF
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) July 19, 2026
Despite the strong play as of late and the ace upside he flashed a few weeks ago, the underlying metrics mostly paint Young as an underwhelming pitcher. His 90th percentile chase rate of 34.8% and his 6.1% barrel rate are the only two metrics worth praising, as mostly everything else grades out as below average. With an xFIP of 4.53 and a FIP of 3.85, some regression is likely in the future.
Verdict: While I do think it’s worth riding out these hot streaks with Young as a back-end fantasy starter with a solid floor, the righty will have to get more consistent whiffs to gain steam as a truly exciting fantasy option. He showed a brief glimpse of it a few starts ago, but as of now, that’s looking more like an outlier than the start of a trend.
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