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Doug Shain's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/21/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including James Wood, Munetaka Murakami, and others!
Happy Tuesday, RotoBaller readers! This is the first Tuesday back from the All-Star break, and we are blessed with gas cans all over the slate. There are many options to choose from, but I think I’ve narrowed things down to a quartet of bets that will take advantage of hitting conditions, pitching matchups, and platoon splits.
Don’t forget that no matter how juicy things look, home runs are hard to hit, which is why the payoffs are so nice. Don’t overdo it just because the data looks friendly, and always try to find a way to hedge your bets to take advantage of good matchups. I’ll try to give you some additional plays within this article to help you find those spots to maximize your profits.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/21/2026)
James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+240, BetRivers)
Few stadiums produce more fireworks than Coors Field, so even at short odds it’s worth taking a look to see if anything pops. Tonight, things definitely pop.
The Nationals will be facing Michael Lorenzen, who has allowed the highest SLG (.589) to left-handed bats of any pitcher on the slate by a wide margin. Although he’s only allowed six home runs at home this season, Lorenzen has an 8.21 ERA and .354 BAA at Coors, meaning it’s only a matter of time before those balls start to leave the yard with regularity.
Washington happens to have some of the best lefties in all of baseball; the key is figuring out which one will go yard. Right now, James Wood is the hottest of the bats on the Nats, putting together an insane 10-game stretch that’s seen him blast five home runs with a .730 SLG. For the season, Wood has been particularly lethal against right-handed pitching, leading the team with a .303 ISO, .584 SLG, and 20 home runs.
JAMES WOOD MOST LEADOFF HOMERS IN A SINGLE SEASON IN FRANCHISE HISTORY 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/FqgKBqif9U
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 12, 2026
I’m going to be playing Wood in a variety of ways tonight: as a solo bet, but also as an anchor for various parlays. He’s produced at least three H/R/RBI in six of his past nine games, making a bet of over 2.5 enticing as a hedge on a home run wager.
Munetaka Murakami OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+326, Novig)
Since his return from the injured list on July 10, Murakami has yet to hit a home run, but before his injury he was one of the major league leaders in long balls. Even with his mini-slump, Murakami is still hammering right-handed pitching, with a team-leading .333 ISO and .583 SLG.
Despite his prolonged absence, he also still leads the team with 16 home runs against righties. Murakami does have a couple of doubles since his return, so the power has been there even if the balls haven’t gone over the fence yet.
That's what we call Franchy Cordero territory. pic.twitter.com/hLeS0XPRSi
— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) July 14, 2026
Kumar Rocker will oppose the Sox tonight, and he’s been very homer-prone over his past five starts, allowing six in just 24.1 innings of work (2.2 HR/9). Rocker has been far more generous at home this year, allowing nine home runs compared to just three on the road.
Over his past three home starts, he’s given up six home runs in 13.1 innings (4.1 HR/9). Rocker has been far worse against lefties than righties this year, allowing a .500 SLG and a 44.5% Hard%. This is as good a matchup as any for Murakami to turn things around and get back on track with his historic rookie home run pace.
