RADIO
Friday night of the NBA playoffs will feature two teams looking to close out their second-round series. The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks and are one win away from becoming the second eighth seed ever to advance to the Conference Finals. The Los Angeles Lakers became only the sixth seventh seed to upset a two-seed when they beat the Memphis Grizzlies in six games in the first round. Los Angeles now has a 3-2 lead on the Warriors heading back to LA. The Lakers would only become the second seventh seed to advance to the Conference Finals since the 16-team playoff format started in 1984.
I finally suffered a loss Wednesday night after hitting six straight. I was able to split the two picks at least and am 7-1 in my last eight. The New York Knicks and Miami Heat only scored 38 points in the first quarter of Game 5. Being on the under 209.5, things were looking really good after the first 12 minutes of play. The next three quarters would see them combine for 177 points and the total would finish at 215. I'll once again be taking aim at the total in Game 6 and am 3-1 on the over/under in that series. Golden State was able to take care of business at home, winning 121-106 and easily covered as seven-point favorites. I take my 11-8 playoff record into Friday night and hope to keep pushing out winners.
In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite picks against the spread and game totals for the NBA playoff games that tip off at 7:30 PM EST on Friday, May 12.
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New York Knicks (+6) @ Miami Heat (208.5 total)
Series: Heat lead 3-2
As I talked about in the intro, I had under 209.5 in Game 5. These teams combined to score 38 points in the first quarter and the Heat were leading 24-14. It started exactly how I thought it might, Miami out in front as the better team and the Knicks missing shots. New York also continued their trend of poor outside shooting by going 2/8 from three in the opening frame. I made a mental note that the live over/under after the first quarter was around 197.5.
The over/under once again is in that 208-209 range. The linemakers didn't see a need to raise it a point or two after Game 5 and I'm right there with them on their judgment.
Jalen Brunson was fantastic in Game 5 and refused to let his Knicks squad lose the series at home:
Game 5 Quarters 2-4 Scoring Fest:
The next three quarters would provide a scoring frenzy that not many could've seen coming. They would combine for 177 points in the next three quarters. All of a sudden, the Knicks would find their shot and hit 11/26 (42.3%) threes after the 2/8 start. Miami only hit 2/9 three-pointers in the first and then hit 11/34 (32.4%) in Quarters 2-4. New York still only hit 13/34 (38%) threes and is still shooting a historically bad 29.2 percent from deep in the 2023 playoffs.
Knicks Offense Struggled in Miami:
They now return back to Miami where they put up 86 and 101 points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. In those two games, the Knicks had a 40.7 field goal percentage and only made 17/68 (25.0%) of their three-pointers.
In five road games in the 2023 playoffs, the Knicks are averaging 96.8 points with a 40.8 field goal percentage and 26.5 three-point percentage. Playing on the road compared to the home crowd in MSG has made a difference for this team. Expecting scoring regression is normal on the road in the playoffs.
Free Throw Attempts in Game 5:
Let's talk about the free throws in Game 5. New York was awarded 40 free throws in Game 5, 10 more than their previous high of 30 attempts in the 2023 playoffs. I just don't see a number like that repeating itself in Game 6. The Knicks are leading all active playoff teams in free throws per game at 26.3 attempts per game, 14 off from the 40 they shot in Game 5.
Jalen Brunson's team only had 71 field goal attempts in Game 5 and shot 49 percent from the floor. This was also due to the high number of free throws in which they went 29/40 (72%) from the line. In Game 6, I expect them to have more field goal attempts. If patterns have shown us anything, that should lead to misses.
Miami:
The Heat only put up 103 points themselves in Game 5. They continued their streak of scoring 100+ points in every game this series but are still only averaging 106 per game. Three-point shooting has also been a problem for them as they are hitting 12.6/40.4 (31.2%) of their attempts from deep.
Miami also likes to take shots late in the shot clock. They are only behind the Philadelphia 76ers in field goal attempts with 0-4 seconds left on the shot clock. When it comes to shots with 4-7 seconds left on the clock, only the Sixers and Nuggets are averaging more attempts per game. A lot of long possessions mixed with misses will only help the case of the under.
Prediction:
Jalen Brunson played all 48 minutes in Game 5, putting up a heroic 38 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists. For as good as that was, it's impossible to not think of him having tired legs going into Game 6. If Brunson is slowed down, the Knicks' offense will likely slow down.
I think the Heat will continue to play their game, moving the ball around, milking the shot clock, and playing good defense.
Both these teams play on the slower side and have been good forcing misses. Miami most likely closes this series out tonight with a strong defensive effort and hopefully, both teams continue to shoot poor percentages.
The Pick: Under 208.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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Golden State Warriors (+3) @ Los Angeles Lakers (221 total)
Series: Lakers lead 3-1
Golden State was able to take care of business in Game 5, winning 121-106 and extending this series to a sixth game. The Warriors hit 11/19 three-pointers in the first half and carried a 70-59 lead into halftime.
After quiet games scoring in Games 2 and 3, Stephen Curry had 31 points in Game 4 and followed it up with 27 points and eight assists in Game 5:
Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins also came through huge to take pressure off of Steph in a must-win game:
Klay Thompson was quiet once again, only scoring 10 points. The performances by Curry, Green, and Wiggins were to be expected with their backs against the wall.
Golden State as a team is still struggling with their shot from deep. In Games 3-5, they have only hit 38/120 (31.6%) of their three-point attempts. The Lakers aren't shooting well either (33.1 percent from three) and hold the 3-2 advantage in the series after they were able to snag Game 4. That fourth game was very winnable for the Warriors and I was encouraged by their effort in Game 5.
It's still hard for me to doubt a team with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins and I can't bring myself to do it here. Klay has been struggling but has a checkered past of showing up in big spots. Steph will continue to be Steph and has averaged 29 points and seven assists in elimination games. Draymond and Wiggins both just came alive offensively in Game 5 and carry that momentum into LA.
The Warriors are averaging the most points per game in handoffs, cuts, and off-screens. They move the ball incredibly well and just aren't hitting shots. During the regular season, they scored 12 points per game off screens, which was best in the NBA by three points. In the playoffs, they are only scoring nine points per game, which is still the best among playoff teams. There's room for improvement and I can only believe the Warriors will shoot poorly for so long before we see another outburst.
According to NBA.com, the Lakers have a 57.1 field goal percentage on two-pointers when guarded from 2-4 feet. Continuously making contested shots is difficult and becomes even more difficult when there is a desperate team on the other end trying to keep their season alive. It would not be surprising to see regression and misses coming in that category.
Is Anthony Davis Injured?
Davis played 32 minutes in Game 5, scoring 23 points and grabbing nine rebounds. He would leave the game with 7:34 left in the fourth quarter after being hit in the head.
All testing seems to be fine and AD is expected to lace them up in Game 6:
Prediction:
I don't see this Game 6 being the same as when the Lakers crushed the Memphis Grizzlies 125-85 in Los Angeles to close out their first-round series.
This Warriors team is still the defending champion and Draymond/Wiggins having a big Game 5 definitely swayed which way I wanted to go on this. Klay has been asleep but the shooting beast could wake up at a moment's notice.
I'll back the Warriors in this spot until they give me a reason not to.
The Pick: Warriors +3 (-110 Fanduel)
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