RADIO
Tuesday night's NBA playoff slate features a trio of teams looking to close out their first-round series. Holding commanding 3-1 leads, the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, and Phoenix Suns all hope to be advancing the next round. On the flip side, the Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Los Angeles Clippers are fighting for their playoff lives.
After a slow 0-3 start to my playoffs, I rebounded strongly with a 3-0 card last Friday. The Celtics/Hawks smashed the over 228 by scoring 252, the Knicks easily cruised to a 20-point victory, and the Denver Nuggets covered a small two-point spread, winning 120-111. It was the bounceback I needed and hopefully, I wasn't the only one it benefited. The games tonight are tricky with nearly all being double-digit spreads. I'll try my best to find an angle and maybe...we sweep the board again. Remember, the NBA playoffs are a grind and there will be highs and lows.
In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite picks against the spread and game totals for the NBA playoff games that tip off at 7:30 PM EST on Tuesday, April 25th.
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NBA Betting Picks
Atlanta Hawks (+13) @ Boston Celtics (229.5 total)
Series: Celtics lead 3-1
The last time I wrote about this series, the Boston Celtics were going into Atlanta with a 2-0 series lead. My angle was on the over after two straight under in games one and two. Atlanta was going to have to score a ton of points to beat Boston and that's exactly what they did, putting up 130 points in a game three victory. Game three went over by 23 points thanks to both teams shooting incredibly well. Game four also featured a scoring bonanza with the two teams combing for 250 points, 19 over the pregame over/under.
Despite the scoring jumps in the previous two games, the books are standing pat at a total of around 229/230. Heading back to Boston for Game Five, I really like the under in this game.
When the Celtics played at home this season, they had the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA at 108.7. When they were on the road they dropped a spot to fifth but the 108.7 at home turned into 112.3 on the road. Atlanta put up 117.2 points per game on the road this season compared to 119.6 at home. They didn't even come close to 117 in either playoff game. The Hawks were especially bad in games one and two in Boston, averaging 102.5 points and slightly over 40 percent field goal shooting.
Plays like this helped the Celtics control the first two games on their home court:
With the way the Celtics closed out Game Four, this series feels pretty over. Atlanta had a legit shot to win that game before the door was completely slammed shut. It can't be understated that the Hawks looked completely different at home which tends to happen in these situations. I also think the Celtics knew they could win a high-scoring game against Atlanta and the defensive urgency wasn't as important in those two games.
Boston can score and hasn't scored under 112 points in every game this series. They also have shot above 48 percent in every game and over 50 percent in two of four. Likely sustainable against this Hawks defense, a bad shooting ugly game could be right around the corner for the Celtics. Every team is usually due for one poor shooting game in a series and it's hard to continuously shoot 50 percent from the floor. Boston cranks up the defense early and we go under after two straight overs.
My allegiance lies with the front and back rims for this game.
The pick: Under 229.5 (-110 DraftKings)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+9.5) @ Denver Nuggets (221 total)
Series: Nuggets lead 3-1
Game four of the Nuggets-Timberwolves series went from a feel-good win for the Timberwolves to a beautiful disaster, back to a feel-good for Minnesota in overtime. I'm sure many of you reading this saw it live but without rehashing everything in words, re-live it below:
Nikola Jokic would go to the free throw line down one with 12.1 seconds left and split the free throws to tie. A great defensive play by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on Anthony Edwards sent this game to overtime in front of a stunned Minnesota crowd.
Anthony Edwards scored the three most important points of his 34 with a massive three-pointer in overtime to put the Wolves up four with 11 seconds left:
Minnesota would win 114-108 and it gave me another game to write about and bet on. It's hard to beat a team four times in a row and seeing a team pull out an emotional victory at home down 3-0 is not uncommon. That's what the Timberwolves were able to do but now the series goes back to Denver.
Denver was able to not only win the first two games at home but also cover. Game one was a 29-point beatdown and game two was a very narrow 122-113 win, covering -8.5. The Nuggets were one of the best home teams ATS in the NBA this season, finishing with a 25-15-1 regular season record according to Action Network. Add in the two playoff covers and Denver has covered over 64 percent of their home games. Minnesota was a respectable 21-20 on the road this season. Add in the cover against the Lakers in the play-in and two losses to the Nuggets and they sit 50 percent on the season.
Nine points feels like a lot and my original thought was Minnesota +9.5 is a no-brainer. After more thought, I like Denver here. I'm not going to say I love them but a team with real championship aspirations should close this series out and I think Denver is that good.
In game four, the Nuggets shot 44 percent from the floor and 34 percent from three. This was the worst field goal percentage they've had in any game this series. It feels like Denver shot the worst they probably will and should be back on par with the elite offense they've had all season. In those first two home games, they had a 49.7 field goal percentage and shot 42.6 percent from deep on 30.5 attempts per game.
When they played in Ball Arena this season, the Nuggets had the second-highest-rated offense and sixth-best-rated defense. This was compared to on the road where they dropped to 14th in offense and 21st on defense.
Anthony Edwards has been phenomenal but Nikola Jokic had 43 points of his own last game and it feels like the beast has woken up. The Timberwolves had an awesome win in game four but the Nuggets put their elite home offense on display to cover and close out this series.
The Pick: Nuggets -9.5 (-110 DraftKings)
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Los Angeles Clippers (+12.5) @ Phoenix Suns (223.5 total)
Series: Suns lead series 3-1
The fightin' Russell Westbrooks look to keep their season alive in Phoenix. After winning game one, the Clippers have dropped three straight with the last two being without Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is out again and this game has gotten tagged with a large spread.
Game three was tightly contested and the Clippers ended up covering the +8.5 spread. Los Angeles was only down by four with 5:24 left in the fourth quarter in game four. Phoenix was able to pull away and win 112-100, covering -7.5. The Clippers would only score four points in the final 5:24, a disappearing offense when they needed it most. Four games into this series and each team has covered two games apiece.
Over the last two games (Games 3 and 4), the Clippers actually have a higher effective field goal percentage at 56.3 percent than the Suns at 53.8 percent. Los Angeles is also scoring more fast break points and points in the paint over that time frame. Something like this stands out because it shows me the Clippers are trying to use quick and effective ways to score. They did take a healthy amount of three-pointers in games three and four and should look to attack more in Game five. The Clippers are only shooting 62.3 percent from less than five feet these playoffs. This is a number that will probably have to increase in game five if they want to make it competitive.
Phoenix will continue to put points up with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and this game is more about the Clippers matching that energy. Norman Powell was a disappointing 4/15 in game four after erupting for 42 in Game three. Westbrook once again had a huge performance with 37 points and zero free-throw attempts. I would be surprised if there is a donut in the free-throw column for Westbrook at the end of game five.
Devin Booker has been the Sun's best player this postseason, averaging 34.8 points and shooting 57.1 percent from the floor. Kevin Durant hasn't been too bad himself, averaging 27.8 points, eight rebounds, and 6.8 assists.
KD and old teammate Russell Westbrook went at it in game four:
I don't think the Clippers are going down without a fight and they have players that can score and get hot for games. We've seen the Clippers play good ball in the last two games even without Kawhi. Russell Westbrook will be fired up as always and it's just too many points to pass up.
The pick: Clippers +12.5 (-110 DraftKings)
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