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Kevin Hickey's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/7/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering more free MLB betting content for you. Postseason baseball is upon us, and today is one of our final four-game slates of the 2023 season. Football season can wait because I'll be all over baseball today!
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Here you can keep up with my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water this season, going 23-25-1 on my betting picks so far, and we'll work on getting back in the green today. Now, let’s dig into my recommendations for October 7, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL (-148)
TEX: Andrew Heaney | BAL: Kyle Bradish
We'll begin with the early game between the Rangers and Orioles. Texas' stock dropped following a disappointing second half to the season, but they seemingly reignited in the Wild Card round and will look to build off that momentum today. On the flip side, Baltimore is fully rested, coming off a 101-win campaign. The Orioles will send their top arm to the mound, while the Rangers will be forced to dig deeper into their pitching bag today. As we look closer into that pitching matchup, the edge will become clearer.
In a somewhat surprising move, the Rangers will send Andrew Heaney to the mound to kick things off. Across 34 appearances this season, Heaney posted a mediocre 4.48 xERA and 4.58 xFIP. The struggles include a 90.1 MPH average exit velocity, 10.2% barrel rate, and a .424 xSLG. Getting hit hard is nothing new for Heaney, but he compensated for it last season with a 35.5% strikeout rate and a 35.8% whiff rate. Those numbers regressed to a 23.6% strikeout rate and a 25.4% whiff rate in 2023. In all likelihood, Heaney has a short leash in this game, though the Rangers' bullpen posted a 4.77 ERA this season and also can't be relied on.
The Orioles were one of baseball's most steady teams all year and still managed to finish the season on a high note. Over the final two months of the campaign, Baltimore averaged 5.2 runs per game. That stretch includes a 116 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, alongside a .781 OPS and .336 wOBA. There is not much playoff experience on their roster, but I still feel good about a lineup featuring Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Cedric Mullins.
Baltimore will put their best foot forward on Saturday, sending Kyle Bradish to the bump. Bradish's 2.83 ERA ranked fourth-best in the majors this season. His 3.79 xERA and 3.53 xFIP do indicate some regression is owed, but he's been effective nonetheless. Bradish isn't immune to getting hit hard, but a 49.1% groundball rate and 6.6% walk rate go a long way toward limiting damage. It wouldn't be surprising to see Bradish settle in and pitch deep today.
The Rangers were possibly baseball's best offense in the first half, scoring 5.8 runs per game. Following the All-Star break, that figure fell to 4.9 runs per game. There's no way to spin this that can make Texas out to be a subpar offense, but they have come back down to Earth in recent months, leaving a reasonable level of doubt.
All in all, I don't think there's much separation between these two offensive lineups. Either one is live to catch fire on any given day. The edge stems from the pitching. Baltimore benefits from a noteworthy advantage with both their starting pitcher and bullpen. I anticipate the Orioles take game one comfortably.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 Run Line (+136) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL (-205)
PHI: Ranger Suarez | ATL: Spencer Strider
Next, we'll move on to Atlanta for an AL East showdown between the Phillies and Braves. The Phillies are fresh off a decisive victory over the Marlins in the Wild Card round, but with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola unavailable today, their pitching depth will be seriously challenged in this one. Meanwhile, a well-rested Atlanta team will kick things off with their ace, whose recent track record is shakier than some want to believe. In any event, I expect a lot more offense than the 8.5-run total suggests.
Ranger Suarez gets the nod for the Phillies today. Through 22 starts, he carries an uninspiring 4.36 xERA and 4.06 xFIP. Suarez surrendered a .261 xBA, .400 xSLG, .322 xwOBA, and produced only a 23% whiff rate. He usually does a solid job of limited power with his 48.8% groundball rate, but right-handed hitters are slugging .424 against Suarez this season. A quality start is within the range of outcomes, though this is the toughest matchup Suarez could possibly draw.
Atlanta's offense was historically potent in 2023. They averaged nearly 5.9 runs per game this season, and over 6.1 runs per game since the All-Star break. The Braves hit left-handed pitching better than any other team, posting a 131 wRC+, .870 OPS, and .368 wOBA against southpaws. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson are both MVP candidates, while names like Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Sean Murphy round out an inconceivably lethal lineup.
Predictably, Spencer Strider will take the bump on Saturday. He boasts an impressive 3.03 xERA and 2.93 xFIP through 32 outings. Strider is in the conversation for baseball's best pitcher, and I won't try to tell you he doesn't belong there. That said, he didn't finish the season on a particularly high note. Strider surrendered three earned runs or more in five of his final six appearances. This isn't a particularly egregious cold stretch, but Strider is fallible. The 186 2/3 innings he pitched in 2023 are, by far, the most he has ever thrown in a season, and it's conceivable that the workload is adversely affecting Strider.
The Phillies' offense took a while to get going this season, but they've apparently hit their stride in time for the playoffs. On the year, Philadelphia averaged a solid 4.9 runs per game. That mark jumped to an impressive 5.4 runs per game in the second half. The success includes a 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, alongside a .779 OPS and .334 wOBA. They aren't nearly as consistent as the Atlanta offense, but a lineup featuring Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Bryson Stott is capable of going toe to toe with anyone.
I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta scores double-digit runs all on their own, but, in any event, these teams should collectively be able to score at least nine runs today.
Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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