Florio's Non-Free Agent Fantasy Football Winners and Losers

March 19, 2025

Free Agency shook up a lot in the NFL this week even for players who did not change teams. Which returning player saw the biggest boost in value? Who lost some? Florio breaks it all down!

Free Agency takes over the football world every March. It is always such a fun week that shakes up the league. It is followed by plenty of analysis over which players ended up in good fits and which hurt their stock. 

Free agents are not the only players whose value is shaken up this week, though. Plenty of players who do not change teams have their value impacted - some good, some not - by the moves their teams make this week. This is one of the more underrated aspects of free agency. 

Let's take a look at the winners and losers of the week who did not change teams. 

Non-Free Agent Fantasy Winners 

Jayden Daniels is coming off of arguably the best rookie season by a quarterback ever. The Commanders then went out and got Laremy Tunsil, who allowed a sack on 0.4 percent of his dropbacks last year. That is still very elite amongst the left tackle position. He should provide more time to throw and more running lanes for the mobile QB. The Commanders also acquired Deebo Samuel Sr., who is a strong No. 2 option, even if he is not the same player he once was. 

Samuel had more yards after the catch last season than any Commanders receiver. That helps because Daniels was league average in the amount of passing yards that came after the catch. He has a receiver that can win in a new way and one that should help Daniels rack up more yards. 

Caleb Williams took the most sacks and QB pressures last season. He had the most unblocked sacks and QB pressures as well. That is no condition for a quarterback to succeed, especially as a rookie. Add in that his OC was fired midway through the season, and he had a lame duck head coach, and yeah, maybe it wasn't the greatest situation for a rookie QB after all. The Bears completely rebuilt the interior of their offensive line with proven players that statistically are all an upgrade over what they had last season. 

With Ben Johnson now driving the offense and hopefully some more protection for Williams, I believe this is the year we will see the real Caleb. He is still the generational talent, and he is just much better situated to showcase that this season. Williams is a QB1 for me in fantasy football. 

Drew Dalman vs Coleman Shelton - another upgrade for the Bears offensive line! https://t.co/67ayuuuNNU pic.twitter.com/WsT6satWzM

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 10, 2025

Anthony Richardson is coming off of a very rough year. Due to that, the Colts were looking to bring in another QB to compete with him. We heard many QBs tied to Indy, but ultimately, they signed Daniel Jones. Now, the Indiana Jones nickname is awesome, but Jones, at this point, is not a quarterback you draft and hand the job to. There will be a camp battle for sure, and if the competition is close, the advantage goes to the younger QB in Richardson. 

Some may view this as a negative, but there was no way the Colts were not bringing in another quarterback. I would have felt much worse if they had brought in Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, or Russell Wilson. This is a quarterback competition Richardson can win. If he doesn’t, that gives us all the information we need. 

J.J. McCarthy is leaving free agency with a vastly improved offensive line after the signings of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries and no quarterback competition. Currently the only other QB on the roster is Brett Rypien. The Vikings let Darnold walk and did not seek out another high-profile quarterback to compete with McCarthy, pointing to him as the starter this season. Given the weapons and the fantasy-friendly system of Kevin O’Connell, he could find immediate fantasy success. 

Chase Brown and Isiah Pacheco are both winners for the same reason. Their teams brought in another back, but not a high-profile one that you need to worry about stealing a bunch of volume. The Bengals brought in Samaje Perine, while the Chiefs signed Elijah Mitchell and Kareem Hunt. Both can contribute, but the bulk of the volume, as well as the valuable passing downs and goal-line touches, could still go to the incumbent starters. Now, they just have to survive the draft! 

Jaylen Warren has been a high-quality back in the NFL the last couple of years, he just has been stuck behind Najee Harris who has never missed time in his career. Last year, though Warren was top eight amongst RBs on a per touch basis in forcing missed tackles and picking up yards after contact. He is more explosive than Harris as well. The only thing fantasy managers have wanted was more of an opportunity. 

That could happen with the Steelers retaining Warren but opting to let Harris walk. They did bring in Kenneth Gainwell, but he is purely a backup at this point in his career. If the Steelers do not use a high-end pick on a back, we could finally get to see Warren operate as a lead runner. He would be an RB2 with the upside to finish higher in fantasy football. 

It’s never too early to start thinking about your @NFLFantasy roster!@MichaelFFlorio discusses who is a fantasy DUB so far this offseason. 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/8ahx7SL8hV

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) March 14, 2025

Khalil Shakir is a winner not just because the Bills didn’t bring in a premium receiver, but also because the one they did sign, Josh Palmer, helps Shakir. Palmer is not a target hog; in fact, he has operated as a No. 3 for years. He is, however, a better intermediate and deep target, as well as an out wide separator, than any receiver the Bills had on the roster last season. That should help take attention away from Shakir and open up space underneath. He should still be the top target for the MVP, which is a win. 

Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers are winners simply because they got a quarterback upgrade. Say what you will about Geno Smith, but he is better than what the Raiders had at QB last year. While Smith has never targeted his tight end at a high rate, he never had one like Bowers. I do not worry about volume at all. Smith does throw to the slot and out wide at high rates and has shown he can help sustain fantasy success with his receivers in Seattle. Meyers, like always, will be an under-the-radar fantasy option. 

2024 Tendencies

Darnold: 42% of throws out wide, 28% to slot, 11% to tight, 13% to backfield

Geno: 35% of throws out wide, 35% to slot, 9% to tight, 17% to backfield

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 10, 2025

Non-Free Agent Fantasy Losers

C.J. Stroud struggled while under pressure last year. He took the second-most sacks and fourth-most pressures. It is why he struggled to find any fantasy success and took a step back as a rookie. So, what do the Texans do? Trade away his elite left tackle. And while I like the Christian Kirk pickup, with Tank Dell sidelined, his WR core takes a hit compared to entering last year. Perhaps the Texans will crush it in the draft or have in-house talent they know about and prove me wrong. It is hard to feel good about Stroud heading into 2025 as things currently stand. 

C.J. Stroud in 2024

- 240 QB pressures (4th most)
- pressure on 38.6% of drop backs (3rd most)
- 52 sacks (2nd most)
- 8.4% sack rate (5th most) https://t.co/BvJ8CvNsSa

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 10, 2025

Drake Maye had a lousy free agency period. I am a Maye "stan" and wrote an article calling him the best buy in dynasty just last month. After swinging and missing on Chris Godwin, the Pats added lineman Morgan Moses and Mack Hollins. The rest of the investments went to defense. The Patriots could largely try to control the clock and trust their defense in games, hurting Maye’s upside. 

The Patriots still have the draft, and there are still some prominent receivers out on the market, but the start of the offseason has been a dud for Maye. 

George Pickens is included here for the same reason that DK Metcalf was in my other article. They both already were volatile due to their style of play. Now, Pickens has to share the field with another very talented receiver with a similar skill set. 

Both ran 80-plus percent of their routes out wide last season. Both averaged over 13 air yards per target, and over a quarter of each’s targets were deep. Now, they have to compete with one another for those deep targets. There will be some big weeks for each and there will be down ones. I imagine it will be very up-and-down week to week for both of these receivers.

DK Metcalf: 85% of routes in 2024 out wide, 13.7 air yards per target, 26% targets deep

George Pickens: 80% of routes in 2024 out wide, 13.5 air yards per target, 29% targets deep

Steelers going to just be straight chucking it downfield next year

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 10, 2025

Jalen McMillan showed us in the second half of the season that he can play in this league at a high level. He is an exciting young player, but he shares a receiver room with two extremely talented, target hogs in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. McMillan will pop at times, it just may be difficult to predict when. He is a "better in best ball" type, and he likely needs an injury to have enough consistent volume to trust in redraft. 

Ben Sinnott was blocked by Zach Ertz last season, but with the veteran hiting the open market, there was hope he could find a path to start in 2025. Not only did the Commanders bring Ertz back, they resigned John Bates. Sinnott could still overtake the starting tight end spot, it just likely will not happen by Week 1.

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.

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